Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Micron said we bottomed, wrung their hands a ton about gross margins and comparability, and said oh, inventory accounting has helped us out</li>
<li>Oracle had a huge announcement that majorly snubbed Intel.</li>
<li>There’s another rumored AI winner. Amkor was rumored (heavy emphasis, Digitimes can be untrustworthy) to be helping Nvidia with packaging.</li>
</ul>


Micron said we bottomed, wrung their hands a ton about gross margins and comparability, and said oh, inventory accounting has helped us out
Oracle had a huge announcement that majorly snubbed Intel.
There’s another rumored AI winner. Amkor was rumored (heavy emphasis, Digitimes can be untrustworthy) to be helping Nvidia with packaging.


Micron, Oracle Database Spending, GPU Restrictions, MLPerf, Amkor, and V Icor

Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ADEA could be the most under the radar artificial intelligence (“AI”) beneficiary through its patent portfolio related to hybrid bonding</li>
<li>Hybrid bonding is expected to help usher the next generation of semiconductors to handle the growing need for speed and bandwidth with lower power consumption</li>
<li>ADEA’s stock has been mainly valued on the free cash flow it is able to generate from its media patent portfolio with little value given to ADEA’s semiconductor patent portfolio</li>
</ul>


ADEA could be the most under the radar artificial intelligence (“AI”) beneficiary through its patent portfolio related to hybrid bonding
Hybrid bonding is expected to help usher the next generation of semiconductors to handle the growing need for speed and bandwidth with lower power consumption
ADEA’s stock has been mainly valued on the free cash flow it is able to generate from its media patent portfolio with little value given to ADEA’s semiconductor patent portfolio


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia CEO to unveil new developments at the company's GTC developer conference tonight Asia time. TSMC and ASML could have read-throughs from the event given their key roles.</li>
<li>AUO's chairman said that he expects PC panel demand to return to normal levels later this year; indicating another sign of potential improvement in the PC and display space.</li>
<li>PC maker Asustek was a top loser in the past week; we highlight it as a potential Long/Short opportunity.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia CEO to unveil new developments at the company's GTC developer conference tonight Asia time. TSMC and ASML could have read-throughs from the event given their key roles.
AUO's chairman said that he expects PC panel demand to return to normal levels later this year; indicating another sign of potential improvement in the PC and display space.
PC maker Asustek was a top loser in the past week; we highlight it as a potential Long/Short opportunity.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia's Latest Strategy Unveil Tonight; AUO Says PC Panel Demand Normalizing

<ul>
<li>We provide a timeline and analysis of key measures from May 2019 to December 2022.</li>
<li>How successive tightening steps led to a critical consolidation in October 2022.</li>
<li>Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.</li>
</ul>


We provide a timeline and analysis of key measures from May 2019 to December 2022.
How successive tightening steps led to a critical consolidation in October 2022.
Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.


China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>We've been pessimistic on prospects for ARM and recent news flow and share price performance hasn't helped but a decent report from TSMC eases some of our concerns</li>
<li>Softbank needs high teens royalty revenue growth for ARM and TSMC as a bellwether (+30% for Q3 and Q4 guidance) is better than AMD or Nvidia</li>
<li>We remain more conservative on valuation ($37bn) than Softbank assuming high single-digit growth and c. 43% EBITDA margins</li>
</ul>


We've been pessimistic on prospects for ARM and recent news flow and share price performance hasn't helped but a decent report from TSMC eases some of our concerns
Softbank needs high teens royalty revenue growth for ARM and TSMC as a bellwether (+30% for Q3 and Q4 guidance) is better than AMD or Nvidia
We remain more conservative on valuation ($37bn) than Softbank assuming high single-digit growth and c. 43% EBITDA margins


Softbank Group - The Most Important Number in Q2 Results May Be ARM Royalty Revenue

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Micron, Oracle Database Spending, GPU Restrictions, MLPerf, Amkor, and V Icor

Micron's earnings are boring. And a Vicor signal boost. Micron said we bottomed, wrung their hands a ton about gross margins and comparability...

Fabricated Knowledge

ADEA: Undiscovered AI

ADEA has primary generated value from its media related patent portfolio even though the Company has an extensive semiconductor patent portfolio...

BWS Financial Inc

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia's Latest Strategy Unveil Tonight; AUO Says PC Panel Demand Normalizing

Nvidia CEO to unveil new developments at the company's GTC developer conference. TSMC and ASML could have read-throughs from the event given their...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

China Semiconductor Restrictions: How the Vice Is Becoming Tighter and Tighter

Recent developments show the U.S. has motivated additional countries to participate and more restrictions are likely in 2023E.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Softbank Group - The Most Important Number in Q2 Results May Be ARM Royalty Revenue

Recent semiconductor weakness is worrisome but results from TSMC are reassuring on the timing of an ARM IPO. We value ARM at $37bn v Softbank's $40bn.

Kirk Boodry

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