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Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Headline Developments Every week there’s a new deal (or regulation) in gaming.  The Steam Deck, the Epic vs Apple case, China’s regulatory crackdowns (triggering a Tencent and Netease collapse).  Acquisitions ramp up every week (this week alone saw Roblox buy Discord competitor Guilded and Swedish game Holdco Embracer Group snap up three new developers).</p>

Headline Developments Every week there’s a new deal (or regulation) in gaming.  The Steam Deck, the Epic vs Apple case, China’s regulatory crackdowns (triggering a Tencent and Netease collapse).  Acquisitions ramp up every week (this week alone saw Roblox buy Discord competitor Guilded and Swedish game Holdco Embracer Group snap up three new developers).

<p>Headline Developments On the back of the Epic v Apple case, documents were released highlighting that Google (GOOG) had considered buying Epic outright.  During the case, Epic Games outlined Google’s plans to develop “a series of internal projects to address the ‘contagion’ it perceived from efforts by Epic and others to offer consumers and developers competitive alternatives and has even contemplated buying some or all of Epic to squelch this threat”.</p>

Headline Developments On the back of the Epic v Apple case, documents were released highlighting that Google (GOOG) had considered buying Epic outright.  During the case, Epic Games outlined Google’s plans to develop “a series of internal projects to address the ‘contagion’ it perceived from efforts by Epic and others to offer consumers and developers competitive alternatives and has even contemplated buying some or all of Epic to squelch this threat”.

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Nvidia shares are up 61% since it announced the acquisition of ARM.  That is great news for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> , which has seen the pro rata value of its potential NVDA shares soar $11bn (87% economic stake) with almost half that gain coming in the last three months. That stands in stark contrast to the SBG share price (-37% since 10 May) or the value of key assets like Alibaba (-12%) or Vision Fund (-2%). In fact, the absolute return for SBG shareholders is now better than what Coupang produced whilst the unrealized gains alone are worth more than Vision Fund’s China ADR portfolio. The downside is Softbank could lose that if regulatory approvals stumble and as China is the likely flashpoint for that, recent worries on China exposure could get even worse.</p>

Nvidia shares are up 61% since it announced the acquisition of ARM.  That is great news for Softbank Group (9984 JP) , which has seen the pro rata value of its potential NVDA shares soar $11bn (87% economic stake) with almost half that gain coming in the last three months. That stands in stark contrast to the SBG share price (-37% since 10 May) or the value of key assets like Alibaba (-12%) or Vision Fund (-2%). In fact, the absolute return for SBG shareholders is now better than what Coupang produced whilst the unrealized gains alone are worth more than Vision Fund’s China ADR portfolio. The downside is Softbank could lose that if regulatory approvals stumble and as China is the likely flashpoint for that, recent worries on China exposure could get even worse.

Softbank Group - ARM Optionality and Exposure Are on the Rise

<h2>Headline Developments</h2><p>Another bad week for Didi (DIDI) , with the stock plummeting a further 21% after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators were weighing up “serious, perhaps unprecedented penalties” which may include a hefty fine (&gt;$2.8b), enforcing a state-owned investment or delisting the company from the NYSE.</p>

Headline DevelopmentsAnother bad week for Didi (DIDI) , with the stock plummeting a further 21% after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators were weighing up “serious, perhaps unprecedented penalties” which may include a hefty fine (&gt;$2.8b), enforcing a state-owned investment or delisting the company from the NYSE.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<p>We remain short Intel. The growth and margin picture is still deteriorating. We don’t think Pat Gelsinger is capable of turning this ship around…and we think the proposed acquisition of Global Foundries may accelerate Intel’s demise.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We remain short Intel. The growth and margin picture is still deteriorating. We don’t think Pat Gelsinger is capable of turning this ship around…and we think the proposed acquisition of Global Foundries may accelerate Intel’s demise.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #45

Headline Developments Every week there’s a new deal (or regulation) in gaming. The Steam Deck, the Epic vs Apple case, China’s regulatory...

Granite Bay Capital

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #44

Headline Developments On the back of the Epic v Apple case, documents were released highlighting that Google (GOOG) had considered buying Epic...

Granite Bay Capital

Softbank Group - ARM Optionality and Exposure Are on the Rise

NVDA is +61% since it announced the ARM acquisition. That's great for Softbank, which has seen pro rata value soar $11bn. But it also means...

Kirk Boodry

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #42

Headline Developments: Another bad week for Didi (DIDI) , with the stock plummeting a further 21% after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators...

Granite Bay Capital

Intel 2Q21: Where Do Margins Go?

Intel's growth and margin picture is still deteriorating. We think the proposed acquisition of Global Foundries may accelerate Intel’s demise.

Aaron Gabin

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