Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one deletion and we estimate the one-way capping flow to be US$289mn.</li>
</ul>


The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
In this insight, we take look at Quiddity's expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the September 2024 index rebal event.
We expect one deletion and we estimate the one-way capping flow to be US$289mn.


Quiddity TDIV Sep 24 Flow Expectations: One Deletion Possible; US$289mn One-Way Capping Flows

<ul>
<li>The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the <em>next</em> 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).</li>
<li>These indices are rebalanced quarterly. In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>T50/100 index changes can also trigger TDIV index changes. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuvoton-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15913:1" rel="noopener">Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT)</a> could be involved in such a move in September 2024.</li>
</ul>


The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
These indices are rebalanced quarterly. In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.
T50/100 index changes can also trigger TDIV index changes. Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT) could be involved in such a move in September 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Sep 24: Nuvoton Tech TDIV Deletion Is the Talking Point

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This week will have some major earnings data points released. In Taiwan, UMC, Delta, Mediatek, ASE will report among other local names in our coverage.</li>
<li>Samsung &amp; SK Hynix will report this week, providing major insight into the Memory chip space for companies such as Nanya Technology and Micron.</li>
<li>TSMC &amp; ASML results last week indicate that the cycle could be bottoming in 2Q23E for these leading firms... But are we entering a two-track industry recovery?</li>
</ul>


This week will have some major earnings data points released. In Taiwan, UMC, Delta, Mediatek, ASE will report among other local names in our coverage.
Samsung &amp; SK Hynix will report this week, providing major insight into the Memory chip space for companies such as Nanya Technology and Micron.
TSMC &amp; ASML results last week indicate that the cycle could be bottoming in 2Q23E for these leading firms... But are we entering a two-track industry recovery?


Taiwan Tech Weekly: This Is a Major Earnings Week; Are We Entering a 2-Track Semiconductor Recovery?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.</li>
<li>Semiconductor inventory to sales and gross margins near record levels, hardware metrics are high as well but less extreme.</li>
<li>Formosa SUMCO, Macronix, Nanya Technology, Hon Hai Precision, and Flexium appear ahead of the inventory correction curve and well-placed as long positions for the current phase of the cycle.</li>
</ul>


We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.
Semiconductor inventory to sales and gross margins near record levels, hardware metrics are high as well but less extreme.
Formosa SUMCO, Macronix, Nanya Technology, Hon Hai Precision, and Flexium appear ahead of the inventory correction curve and well-placed as long positions for the current phase of the cycle.


Taiwan Tech: Who's Ahead of the Inventory Cycle?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 5 adds and 5 deletes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June with implementation taking place from 21-27 June.</li>
<li>The constituent changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 12.8% and in a one-way trade of TWD 37.2bn (US$1.15bn).</li>
<li>The changes are in line with our forecasts with one exception. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uni-president-enterprises-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7973:1" rel="noopener">Uni President Enterprises (1216 TT)</a> was not added and Yulon Finance (9941 TT) was added instead.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 adds and 5 deletes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June with implementation taking place from 21-27 June.
The constituent changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 12.8% and in a one-way trade of TWD 37.2bn (US$1.15bn).
The changes are in line with our forecasts with one exception. Uni President Enterprises (1216 TT) was not added and Yulon Finance (9941 TT) was added instead.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: One Surprise as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$2.3bn

Taiwan

Taiwan Surface Mounting Technology Corp assembles printed circuit boards (PCBs).

Taiwan Surface Mounting Tech Corp. (6278 TT)

Himax Technologies, Inc. designs and manufactures integrated circuits.  The Company produces liquid crystal displays (LCD).

Kinsus Interconnect Technology Corp. manufactures BGA (Ball Grid Array) boards. The Company's products include PBGA (Plastic BGA), MCM (Multi Chip Module) BGA, Mini BGA, TEBGA (Thermal Enhanced BGA), and flip chip substrate boards.

Macronix International Co., Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) as well as memory products.  The Company's products include nonvolatile memory integrated circuits, mask ROM (Read Only Memory), EPROM (Erasable Programmable ROM), and flash memory products.  Macronix also produces logic ICs for audio, clock generators, and graphic application devices.

CHIPBOND Technology Corporation provides chip packaging service for the IC (Integrated Circuit) industry.  The Company manufactures Gold Bump, TCP (Tape Carrier Packaging), Solder Bump, and COG (Chip on Glass), which are applied to the process of packaging.

Silicon Integrated Systems Corp. manufactures and markets chipsets for computers and multimedia products.

Grand Plastic Technology Corp.  specializes in equipment for back end semiconductor manufacturing.  The Company's equipment is used for bumping in the semiconductor packaging and assembly step.

Topco Scientific Co., Ltd. distributes semiconductor and optoelectronic components and equipment. The Company also designs and contracts water-purifying and treatment systems for hi-tech wastes.

MPI Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets probe cards and probe stations for wafer testing.

Gudeng Precision Industrial Co., Ltd. provides integrated solutions for material handling, transfer and storage. The Company's produces mask case and wafer solution products. Gudeng Precision also offers cleaning and repair services.

MICRONICS JAPAN CO., LTD. designs, manufactures, and markets probe cards, which are used to inspect semiconductors and integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company also makes wafer probers, probe card testers, IC handlers, and inspection devices used for liquid crystal display (LCD) manufacturing.

Shanghai Sinyang Semiconductor Materials Co. Ltd. develops, produces, and provides services for the electronic chemicals used in the semiconductor industry. The company also provides electronic cleaning and electronic plating core technologies. They develops specialized equipment, such as: chemical materials, equipment, and application process etc.

Shanghai Sinyang Smcndctr Mtls (300236 CH)

EO Technics Co., Ltd. is a laser-based equipment supplier. The Company develops laser technology and applications used for marking, drilling, trimming and cutting.

Techwing Inc., manufactures parts for semiconductor testing equipment. The Company's product includes test handlers, Change of Kit (C.O.K) and test interface boards.  The company's main product, test handlers, is core  semiconductor testing equipment.

Sanken Electric Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells discrete semiconductors such as diodes and transistors, and analog integrated circuits.  The Company also manufactures various kinds of adapters and surge/transient protectors.

Photronics, Inc. manufactures photomasks, which are high precision quartz plates that contain microscopic images of electronic circuits.  The Company's products are used to transfer circuit patterns onto semiconductor wafers during the fabrication of integrated circuits.  Photronics operates manufacturing facilities in Asia, Europe, and North America.

Unisem (M) Berhad manufactures semiconductor devices.  The Company provides turnkey solutions to its customers in wafer grinding, packaging and testing of integrated circuits, tape and reel, and dropship services. Unisem also provides packaging and testing wide range of leadframe packages.

Cohu, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductor test handling equipment to semiconductor manufacturers throughout the world.  The Company also manufactures closed circuit television, metal detection, and microwave equipment.

PDF Solutions, Inc. provides infrastructure technologies and services to optimize performance and improve yield of manufactured integrated circuits.  The Company provides its services and technologies to integrated device manufacturers such as Toshiba Corporation and Texas Instruments Incorporated.

Mitsui High-tec, Inc. produces integrated circuit leadframes, assembly parts, and related equipment.  The Company also manufactures and sells precision machine tools, such as metal molds for presses and machine tools. Mitsui High-tec also operates a real estate business.

Nuvoton Technology Corp. manudfactures a wide range of semiconductor products. The Company's products lines are Consumer Electronics integrated Circuits (IC) and Computer IC.

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Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT)

Quiddity TDIV Sep 24 Flow Expectations: One Deletion Possible; US$289mn One-Way Capping Flows

Nuvoton (4919 TT)'s potential T100 deletion could also lead to a TDIV deletion. There could be six days of volume to sell in Nuvoton but the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Sep 24: Nuvoton Tech TDIV Deletion Is the Talking Point

We do not see any changes for the T50 index at present. However, we see three changes for the T100 index and one of the DELs - Nuvoton Tech - could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: This Is a Major Earnings Week; Are We Entering a 2-Track Semiconductor Recovery?

TSMC & ASML results last week indicate that the cycle could be bottoming in 2Q23E for these leading firms... But are we entering a two-track...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech: Who's Ahead of the Inventory Cycle?

We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: One Surprise as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$2.3bn

The ETF starts rebalancing at the close today and that will continue over the next 4 trading days. Excluding BizLink, the adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

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Quiddity TDIV Sep 24 Flow Expectations: One Deletion Possible; US$289mn One-Way Capping Flows

Nuvoton (4919 TT)'s potential T100 deletion could also lead to a TDIV deletion. There could be six days of volume to sell in Nuvoton but the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Sep 24: Nuvoton Tech TDIV Deletion Is the Talking Point

We do not see any changes for the T50 index at present. However, we see three changes for the T100 index and one of the DELs - Nuvoton Tech - could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: This Is a Major Earnings Week; Are We Entering a 2-Track Semiconductor Recovery?

TSMC & ASML results last week indicate that the cycle could be bottoming in 2Q23E for these leading firms... But are we entering a two-track...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech: Who's Ahead of the Inventory Cycle?

We look at where Taiwan tech sits in the cycle and which companies appear better or worse placed to weather the coming inventory correction.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: One Surprise as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$2.3bn

The ETF starts rebalancing at the close today and that will continue over the next 4 trading days. Excluding BizLink, the adds have outperformed...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Sep 24: Nuvoton Tech TDIV Deletion Is the Talking Point

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Div+ ETF Rebalance: One Surprise as Round-Trip Trade Hits US$2.3bn