IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a> Board has recommended KKR’s first tender offer (JPY8,800). The Board will announce its view on the second tender offer on launch. </li>
<li>The Board sounded out Bain’s progress on a binding proposal and 3D and Farallon's on their irrevocable. The absence of a Bain binding proposal immensely helped the Board’s decision.</li>
<li>Bain has likely left it too late. With a higher offer, Bain could force a recommendation change and hope KKR is shamed into cancelling 3D and Farallon's irrevocable. </li>
</ul>


The Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) Board has recommended KKR’s first tender offer (JPY8,800). The Board will announce its view on the second tender offer on launch. 
The Board sounded out Bain’s progress on a binding proposal and 3D and Farallon's on their irrevocable. The absence of a Bain binding proposal immensely helped the Board’s decision.
Bain has likely left it too late. With a higher offer, Bain could force a recommendation change and hope KKR is shamed into cancelling 3D and Farallon's irrevocable. 


Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR on the Home Stretch as Bain Dithers

<ul>
<li>KKR has rejigged its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a> tender offer into a two-stage offer at an unchanged JPY8,800 price. The first stage has no minimum acceptance condition. </li>
<li>The first stage is designed to facilitate KKR’s acquisition of 3D and Farallon shares, which have tendered and will not withdraw their tenders without KKR's consent.</li>
<li>By securing 3D/Farallon’s shares, KKR has effectively blocked a Bain tender offer. Bain could launch a partial offer but it would be constrained by the tradeable share ratio criteria.   </li>
</ul>


KKR has rejigged its Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) tender offer into a two-stage offer at an unchanged JPY8,800 price. The first stage has no minimum acceptance condition. 
The first stage is designed to facilitate KKR’s acquisition of 3D and Farallon shares, which have tendered and will not withdraw their tenders without KKR's consent.
By securing 3D/Farallon’s shares, KKR has effectively blocked a Bain tender offer. Bain could launch a partial offer but it would be constrained by the tradeable share ratio criteria.   


Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Checkmate as KKR Switches to a Two-Stage Tender

<ul>
<li>In response to the potential Bain competing offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, KKR has waived the precondition and launched its offer at unchanged JPY8,800 per share.</li>
<li>Bain’s due diligence ends on 20 September, and it aims to submit a binding proposal in October. This timeline will thwart KKR’s offer, which closes on 21 October.</li>
<li>KKR’s offer launch at unchanged terms is delaying the inevitable and will have to bump to succeed. A potential bidding war is likely to push the offer price to JPY10,500. </li>
</ul>


In response to the potential Bain competing offer for Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), KKR has waived the precondition and launched its offer at unchanged JPY8,800 per share.
Bain’s due diligence ends on 20 September, and it aims to submit a binding proposal in October. This timeline will thwart KKR’s offer, which closes on 21 October.
KKR’s offer launch at unchanged terms is delaying the inevitable and will have to bump to succeed. A potential bidding war is likely to push the offer price to JPY10,500. 


Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR's Cop-Out as It Launches at Unchanged Terms, Next Move Bain

<ul>
<li>Nikkei reports that Bain will launch a competing tender offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a> around JPY9,200-9,300 per share, around 5% higher than KKR's offer. </li>
<li>The Board responded that Bain submitted a non-binding proposal on 26 July. The special committee will consider its feasibility if a binding proposal is submitted. </li>
<li>KKR has three options to respond to a higher Bain offer: revise it, launch a hostile offer at unchanged terms, or walk away. The first option is the most likely.</li>
</ul>


Nikkei reports that Bain will launch a competing tender offer for Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) around JPY9,200-9,300 per share, around 5% higher than KKR's offer. 
The Board responded that Bain submitted a non-binding proposal on 26 July. The special committee will consider its feasibility if a binding proposal is submitted. 
KKR has three options to respond to a higher Bain offer: revise it, launch a hostile offer at unchanged terms, or walk away. The first option is the most likely.


Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Bain’s Rumoured Counteroffer

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...</li>
<li>We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.</li>
<li>Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing snap-back rallies in the largest global economies -- notably the U.S. and Japan, and also Europe to a lesser extent. However...
We're expecting to see lower highs develop at prior breakdown levels at 2690-2700 on the TOPIX and 4884 on the EURO STOXX 50, which are significant resistance levels.
Watching SPX resistance at 5585, or possible test of YTD highs/marginal new high, all fitting with our ongoing belief (since July 25) that ACWI-US going through 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

Japan

NS Solutions Corporation operates system consulting services and proposal of solutions.  The Company also manages operation and maintenance of engineering systems and develops software.

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NS Solutions (2327 JP)

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR on the Home Stretch as Bain Dithers

Bain’s dithering on a binding competing proposal left the Board little choice but to recommend the binding proposal at hand - the KKR offer. Bain...

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KKR has deftly outmanoeuvred Bain by switching to a two-stage tender at an unchanged JPY8,800 and securing 3D/Farallon’s shares. Bain is likely to...

Arun George

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR's Cop-Out as It Launches at Unchanged Terms, Next Move Bain

KKR’s offer launch at unchanged terms is delaying the inevitable. It will have to be bumped to succeed. A potential bidding war could push the...

Arun George

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): Bain’s Rumoured Counteroffer

Bain is rumoured to launch a counteroffer. KKR has three options to respond to a higher Bain offer: revise it, launch a hostile offer at unchanged...

Arun George

MSCI ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Buys Across Defensives & Other Sectors

MSCI $ACWI Consolidation Continues; Outlook Remains Neutral; Snap-Back Rallies in Japan $Nikkei $TOPIX, U.S. $SPX, Europe $STOXX fits with our view...

Vermilion Research

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