Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monadelphous-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:553:1" rel="noopener">Monadelphous (MND AU)</a> will be added to the S&amp;P ASX 200 Index on 16 December 2022.</li>
<li>This is not a surprise. It has been the lead contender for a December ADD slot since the day after the September rebalance was completed (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/s-p-asx-quiddity-leaderboard-dec-22-top-ranked-asx200-adds-look-interesting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>).</li>
<li>There is a fair bit of volume to buy, and there are pair trades to do.</li>
</ul>



Monadelphous (MND AU) will be added to the S&amp;P ASX 200 Index on 16 December 2022.
This is not a surprise. It has been the lead contender for a December ADD slot since the day after the September rebalance was completed (see here).
There is a fair bit of volume to buy, and there are pair trades to do.


Monadelphous (MND AU) Is The S&P ASX 200 ADD - There's a Trade Here

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ddh1-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36022:1" rel="noopener">DDH1 (DDH AU)</a>'s IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perenti-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20505:1" rel="noopener">Perenti Global (PRN AU)</a>’s A$0.1238 cash plus 0.7111 PRN shares for each DDH share offer fair and reasonable. </li>
<li>The offer requires DDH1 shareholder approval. Shareholders representing 38.0% of outstanding shares will vote in favour of the scheme.</li>
<li>The low spread points to a done deal. At the last close price and for the 6 October payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.5% and 10.8%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



DDH1 (DDH AU)'s IE considers Perenti Global (PRN AU)’s A$0.1238 cash plus 0.7111 PRN shares for each DDH share offer fair and reasonable. 
The offer requires DDH1 shareholder approval. Shareholders representing 38.0% of outstanding shares will vote in favour of the scheme.
The low spread points to a done deal. At the last close price and for the 6 October payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.5% and 10.8%, respectively.


DDH1 (DDH AU): Scheme Meeting on 18 September

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ddh1-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36022:1" rel="noopener">DDH1 (DDH AU)</a> has entered a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perenti-global-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20505:1" rel="noopener">Perenti Global (PRN AU)</a> at A$0.1238 cash plus 0.7111 PRN shares for each DDH share, a 17.4% premium to DDH’s 5-day VWAP.</li>
<li>The key conditions are shareholder scheme approval and ACCC clearance. Shareholders representing 38.0% of outstanding shares will vote in favour of the scheme.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, and the net exchange ratio is fair on a 1-year basis. A critical risk is volatility risk around PRN shares.  </li>
</ul>



DDH1 (DDH AU) has entered a SID with Perenti Global (PRN AU) at A$0.1238 cash plus 0.7111 PRN shares for each DDH share, a 17.4% premium to DDH’s 5-day VWAP.
The key conditions are shareholder scheme approval and ACCC clearance. Shareholders representing 38.0% of outstanding shares will vote in favour of the scheme.
The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, and the net exchange ratio is fair on a 1-year basis. A critical risk is volatility risk around PRN shares.  


DDH1 (DDH AU): Binding Offer from Perenti (PRN AU)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-rare-earth-strategic-metals-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-aus-equal-wei" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24297:1" rel="noopener">Vaneck Aus Equal Weight ETF</a>, and other indices will be implemented 17 March.</li>
<li>There are plenty of stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade. Some pre-positioning would have taken place prior to announcement and positions adjusted in the last couple of weeks.</li>
<li>There has been a reversal in stock performance over the last few weeks and short interest has moved a lot in some stocks.</li>
</ul>


Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, VanEck Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF, VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, Vaneck Aus Equal Weight ETF, and other indices will be implemented 17 March.
There are plenty of stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade. Some pre-positioning would have taken place prior to announcement and positions adjusted in the last couple of weeks.
There has been a reversal in stock performance over the last few weeks and short interest has moved a lot in some stocks.


Australia: S&P/​ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW, Other Flows on Friday

<ul>
<li>There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX</a> and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.</li>
</ul>


There is one change for the ASX20, two for the ASX100, four for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 INDEX and 12 adds/ 9 deletes for the ASX300 Index at the March rebalance.
There will be between 7-20 days of ADV to trade on the ASX100 and ASX200 adds while the impact on the deletions is between 1-11 days of ADV.
The adds have outperformed the deletes on all indices over the last few months. Short interest has jumped on a lot of the large deletes.


S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

Australia

NRW Holdings Limited provides mining and civil construction services. The Company offers rail formation, bulk earthworks, mine development, road and tunnel construction, topsoil removal, and a range of contract mining services. NRW Holdings serves customers in Australia.

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NRW Holdings (NWH AU)

Monadelphous (MND AU) Is The S&P ASX 200 ADD - There's a Trade Here

Mining services company Monadelphous (MND AU) is the S&P ASX 200 ADD, as expected. There should be 4.8mm shares to buy - 12+ days of ADV. There's a...

Travis Lundy

DDH1 (DDH AU): Scheme Meeting on 18 September

The low spread points to a done deal. At the last close price and for the 6 October payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.5% and 10.8%,...

Arun George

DDH1 (DDH AU): Binding Offer from Perenti (PRN AU)

The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, and the net exchange ratio is fair on a 1-year basis. A critical risk is volatility risk around...

Arun George

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW, Other Flows on Friday

Implementation of the S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA and other indices take place at the close on Friday. There will be a lot of passive flow going...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 19 adds and 16 deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices. On the larger names, passives need to buy 7-20x ADV while selling between 1...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Monadelphous (MND AU) Is The S&P ASX 200 ADD - There's a Trade Here

Mining services company Monadelphous (MND AU) is the S&P ASX 200 ADD, as expected. There should be 4.8mm shares to buy - 12+ days of ADV. There's a...

Travis Lundy

DDH1 (DDH AU): Scheme Meeting on 18 September

The low spread points to a done deal. At the last close price and for the 6 October payment, the gross and annualised spread is 1.5% and 10.8%,...

Arun George

DDH1 (DDH AU): Binding Offer from Perenti (PRN AU)

The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, and the net exchange ratio is fair on a 1-year basis. A critical risk is volatility risk around...

Arun George

Australia: S&P/​ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW, Other Flows on Friday

Implementation of the S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA and other indices take place at the close on Friday. There will be a lot of passive flow going...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes

There are 19 adds and 16 deletes across the S&P/ASX family of indices. On the larger names, passives need to buy 7-20x ADV while selling between 1...

Brian Freitas

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW, Other Flows on Friday

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (Mar 2023): Big Impact Changes as Adds Outperform Deletes