Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductors are the 2nd largest industry allocation and the 6th largest overweight among EM active managers. However, the momentum witnessed between 2019 and 2021 has stalled.</li>
<li>EM Growth funds remain overweight, but Value and GARP funds switch from an equal weight to an underweight.</li>
<li>TSMC is the dominant stock holding whilst SK Hynix and Mediatek occupy a 2nd tier. Alchip Technologies has captured inflows, whilst EM funds are closing LONGi Green Energy Technology exposure</li>
</ul>


Semiconductors are the 2nd largest industry allocation and the 6th largest overweight among EM active managers. However, the momentum witnessed between 2019 and 2021 has stalled.
EM Growth funds remain overweight, but Value and GARP funds switch from an equal weight to an underweight.
TSMC is the dominant stock holding whilst SK Hynix and Mediatek occupy a 2nd tier. Alchip Technologies has captured inflows, whilst EM funds are closing LONGi Green Energy Technology exposure


EM Semiconductors:  Positioning Deep Dive

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 20th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Quanta Computer, Alchip Tech, ASE, Largan Precision, Novatek, Lite-On Tech, Accton Tech.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 20th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD14.2bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Quanta Computer, Alchip Tech, ASE, Largan Precision, Novatek, Lite-On Tech, Accton Tech.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 20th): Quanta Computer, Alchip Tech, ASE, Largan Precision, Novatek

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>'s outlook is expected to be slightly negative QoQ in 4Q23F. </li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> iPhone 16 qualification samples of Novatek OLED DDIC is targeting to deliver by 4Q23F.</li>
<li>Novatek is increasing its wafer orders at UMC in 4Q23F.</li>
</ul>



Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)'s outlook is expected to be slightly negative QoQ in 4Q23F. 
The Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 16 qualification samples of Novatek OLED DDIC is targeting to deliver by 4Q23F.
Novatek is increasing its wafer orders at UMC in 4Q23F.


Novatek (3034.TT): Re-Qualify IPhone OLED Display DDIC; the Downturn Might Be Ending Soon.

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 13th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD11.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Largan Precision, Alchip Tech, Nanya Tech, Delta Elec.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 13th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD11.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Largan Precision, Alchip Tech, Nanya Tech, Delta Elec.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 13th): Largan Precision, Alchip Tech, Nanya Tech, Delta Electronics

Taiwan

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

Price Gauge
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Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

EM Semiconductors: Positioning Deep Dive

The momentum in Semiconductor positioning witnessed between 2019 and 2021 has stalled. In this report we identifying the funds and the companies...

Steven Holden

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 20th): Quanta Computer, Alchip Tech, ASE, Largan Precision, Novatek

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Quanta Computer, Alchip Tech, ASE, Largan...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Novatek (3034.TT): Re-Qualify IPhone OLED Display DDIC; the Downturn Might Be Ending Soon.

Novatek's outlook is expected to be slightly negative QoQ in 4Q23F. The Apple iPhone 16 qualification samples of Novatek OLED DDIC is targeting to...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 13th): Largan Precision, Alchip Tech, Nanya Tech, Delta Electronics

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Largan Precision, Alchip Tech, Nanya Tech, Delta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

EM Semiconductors: Positioning Deep Dive

The momentum in Semiconductor positioning witnessed between 2019 and 2021 has stalled. In this report we identifying the funds and the companies...

Steven Holden

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 20th): Quanta Computer, Alchip Tech, ASE, Largan Precision, Novatek

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Quanta Computer, Alchip Tech, ASE, Largan...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Novatek (3034.TT): Re-Qualify IPhone OLED Display DDIC; the Downturn Might Be Ending Soon.

Novatek's outlook is expected to be slightly negative QoQ in 4Q23F. The Apple iPhone 16 qualification samples of Novatek OLED DDIC is targeting to...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 13th): Largan Precision, Alchip Tech, Nanya Tech, Delta Electronics

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Largan Precision, Alchip Tech, Nanya Tech, Delta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...