Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Novatek reported over 20% YoY growth for 4Q23 and slightly beat expectations but the latest guidance implies growth to reverse to a sales contraction in the latter part of 1Q24E.</li>
<li>Gross and operating margins are guided to contract; nevertheless, inventory dropped to one of the lowest levels since COVID and is expected to remain healthy.</li>
<li>Novatek's latest results appear to signal that while inventory levels are healthy, the demand growth rebound for display drivers that started in June 2023E could lose steam in 1Q24E.</li>
</ul>


Novatek reported over 20% YoY growth for 4Q23 and slightly beat expectations but the latest guidance implies growth to reverse to a sales contraction in the latter part of 1Q24E.
Gross and operating margins are guided to contract; nevertheless, inventory dropped to one of the lowest levels since COVID and is expected to remain healthy.
Novatek's latest results appear to signal that while inventory levels are healthy, the demand growth rebound for display drivers that started in June 2023E could lose steam in 1Q24E.


Largest Display Driver Maker in the World's Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb & March

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>4Q23 surpassed the guidance for revenue, GM, and OPM. 4Q23 EPS reached NT$8.76, compared to NT$10.46 in 3Q23 and NT$6.64 in 4Q22.</li>
<li>1Q24F is typically the traditional low season for consumer electronics, and there are fewer working days during the Lunar New Year.</li>
<li>It is expected that the dividend payout ratio this year will be similar to previous years, which has been higher than 80% in the past few years.</li>
</ul>


4Q23 surpassed the guidance for revenue, GM, and OPM. 4Q23 EPS reached NT$8.76, compared to NT$10.46 in 3Q23 and NT$6.64 in 4Q22.
1Q24F is typically the traditional low season for consumer electronics, and there are fewer working days during the Lunar New Year.
It is expected that the dividend payout ratio this year will be similar to previous years, which has been higher than 80% in the past few years.


Novatek (3034.TT): It's the Low Season in 1Q24F; AI Is Gradually Added to Different Applications.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a> had reserved Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 16 Display Driver IC (DDIC) for future shipment since 3Q24F when qualification past.</li>
<li>Novatek's outlook is increasing to about 1~5% in 1Q24F, remarked a higher quarter demand than 4Q23.</li>
<li>It could be a low season in 2Q24F because the rush order shown up around Chinese New Year.  </li>
</ul>



Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT) had reserved Apple (AAPL US) iPhone 16 Display Driver IC (DDIC) for future shipment since 3Q24F when qualification past.
Novatek's outlook is increasing to about 1~5% in 1Q24F, remarked a higher quarter demand than 4Q23.
It could be a low season in 2Q24F because the rush order shown up around Chinese New Year.  


Novatek (3034.TT): Reserved IPhone 16 DDIC for 3Q24F Shipment; 1Q24F Outlook Bright.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2% YoY, Canalys an increase of +1%. Let’s call this flat. If 4Q24 is “average seasonal”, 2024 will reach ~265m, or the pre-Covid range. </li>
<li>No AI fever, no accelerated replacement cycle, for now. If it happens, it will take time, ie compelling AI apps that only run locally and need a new PC.</li>
<li>In Asia, PC vendors: Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Taiwan ODM: Compal, Quanta, Wistron. Semi with high exposure: Novatek, Realtek. </li>
</ul>


IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2% YoY, Canalys an increase of +1%. Let’s call this flat. If 4Q24 is “average seasonal”, 2024 will reach ~265m, or the pre-Covid range. 
No AI fever, no accelerated replacement cycle, for now. If it happens, it will take time, ie compelling AI apps that only run locally and need a new PC.
In Asia, PC vendors: Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Taiwan ODM: Compal, Quanta, Wistron. Semi with high exposure: Novatek, Realtek. 


3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>We screen for stocks at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Emerging Market equity funds.</li>
<li>High Positioning, Negative Momentum: BYD Company Limited Class H, Novatek Microelectronics Corp.</li>
<li>Low Positioning, Negative Momentum: Banco Bradesco SA Pfd, LG Chem Ltd.    </li>
</ul>


We screen for stocks at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Emerging Market equity funds.
High Positioning, Negative Momentum: BYD Company Limited Class H, Novatek Microelectronics Corp.
Low Positioning, Negative Momentum: Banco Bradesco SA Pfd, LG Chem Ltd.    


Taiwan

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

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Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)

Largest Display Driver Maker in the World's Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb & March

Novatek's strong growth in 4Q23 may be short-lived as sales are expected to contract YoY in February and March, despite healthy inventory. The...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Novatek (3034.TT): It's the Low Season in 1Q24F; AI Is Gradually Added to Different Applications.

The 4Q23 was higher revenue and earnings compared to 4Q22. 1Q24F is expected to be a slow season for consumer electronics. The company has...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): Reserved IPhone 16 DDIC for 3Q24F Shipment; 1Q24F Outlook Bright.

Novatek has reserved DDIC for iPhone future shipment, with an expected increase in demand since 3Q24. However, there may be a slowdown in 2Q24 due...

Patrick Liao

3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

3Q24 PC shipments are flat YoY. The great recovery or AI replacement cycle aren’t happening (for now). IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2%...

Nicolas Baratte

GEM Funds: Extreme Stocks, July 2024

We screen for stocks at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges. We combine current and historical data with recent manager...

Steven Holden

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Largest Display Driver Maker in the World's Guidance Implies Growth Reversal Coming in Feb & March

​Novatek's strong growth in 4Q23 may be short-lived as sales are expected to contract YoY in February and March, despite healthy inventory. The...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Novatek (3034.TT): It's the Low Season in 1Q24F; AI Is Gradually Added to Different Applications.

​The 4Q23 was higher revenue and earnings compared to 4Q22. 1Q24F is expected to be a slow season for consumer electronics. The company has...

Patrick Liao

Novatek (3034.TT): Reserved IPhone 16 DDIC for 3Q24F Shipment; 1Q24F Outlook Bright.

​Novatek has reserved DDIC for iPhone future shipment, with an expected increase in demand since 3Q24. However, there may be a slowdown in 2Q24 due...

Patrick Liao

3Q24 PC Shipments Are Flat YoY. Lenovo, Acer, Asus. Compal, Quanta, Wistron.

3Q24 PC shipments are flat YoY. The great recovery or AI replacement cycle aren’t happening (for now). IDC reported 3Q24 PC shipments declining -2%...

Nicolas Baratte

GEM Funds: Extreme Stocks, July 2024

We screen for stocks at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges. We combine current and historical data with recent manager...

Steven Holden

Novatek's strong growth in 4Q23 may be short-lived as sales are expected to contract YoY in February and March, despite healthy inventory. The...

The 4Q23 was higher revenue and earnings compared to 4Q22. 1Q24F is expected to be a slow season for consumer electronics. The company has...

Novatek has reserved DDIC for iPhone future shipment, with an expected increase in demand since 3Q24. However, there may be a slowdown in 2Q24 due...