Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Biotech play <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genscript-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21041:1" rel="noopener">Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)</a></strong> and ~48%-held <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legend-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28963:1" rel="noopener">Legend Biotech (LEGN US)</a></strong> popped recently on a reported tilt for Legend.  Neither Genscript nor Legend made exchange announcements supporting the claim. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Genscript/Legend are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Biotech play Genscript Biotech (1548 HK) and ~48%-held Legend Biotech (LEGN US) popped recently on a reported tilt for Legend.  Neither Genscript nor Legend made exchange announcements supporting the claim. 
Preceding my comments on Genscript/Legend are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Legend (LEGN US) Offer Or Not, Genscript (1548 HK) Is Attractive

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

SAI Life Sciences / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sai-life-sciences" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43724:1" rel="noopener">SAI Life Sciences</a>(SLS) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Kotak, IIFL, Jefferies and MS.</li>
<li>SLS is a CRDMO. It provides end-to-end services across the drug discovery, development and manufacturing value chain, for small molecule NCE to global pharmaceutical innovators and biotechnology firms</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, SLS was the fastest-growing Indian CRDMOs among listed Indian peers in terms of revenue CAGR as well as EBITDA CAGR from FY22 to FY24.</li>
</ul>



SAI Life Sciences(SLS) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Kotak, IIFL, Jefferies and MS.
SLS is a CRDMO. It provides end-to-end services across the drug discovery, development and manufacturing value chain, for small molecule NCE to global pharmaceutical innovators and biotechnology firms
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, SLS was the fastest-growing Indian CRDMOs among listed Indian peers in terms of revenue CAGR as well as EBITDA CAGR from FY22 to FY24.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/legend-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28963:1" rel="noopener">Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US)</a> shares increased 12% on Friday as a Street Insider report claimed it received takeover interest and hired Centerview Partners to help review the offer.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genscript-biotech-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21041:1" rel="noopener">Genscript Biotech (1548 HK)</a>, the largest shareholder, shares rose 25%. Genscript responsded that it is not aware of any reasons for these share price movements and any inside information.</li>
<li>The chances for an offer are low as the offeror would face several hurdles. Nevertheless, without an offer, the upcoming CARVYKTI commercial production in 2H24 will support the share price.   </li>
</ul>



Legend Biotech Corp (LEGN US) shares increased 12% on Friday as a Street Insider report claimed it received takeover interest and hired Centerview Partners to help review the offer.

Genscript Biotech (1548 HK), the largest shareholder, shares rose 25%. Genscript responsded that it is not aware of any reasons for these share price movements and any inside information.
The chances for an offer are low as the offeror would face several hurdles. Nevertheless, without an offer, the upcoming CARVYKTI commercial production in 2H24 will support the share price.   


Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Takeover Interest – Possible but Tough to Pull Off

Switzerland

Novartis AG manufactures pharmaceutical and consumer healthcare products. The Company uses innovative science and digital technologies to create transformative treatments in areas of great medical need. Novartis offers patent protected prescription medicine and generic pharmaceuticals and biosimilars.

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Novartis (NOVN SW)

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

StubWorld: Legend (LEGN US) Offer Or Not, Genscript (1548 HK) Is Attractive

Genscript appears attractive - not just Legend's product pipeline and strong partnerships; but also Genscript's stub ops have been performing well....

David Blennerhassett

Sai Life Sciences Pre-IPO Tearsheet

SAI Life Sciences(SLS) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Kotak, IIFL, Jefferies and MS.

Sumeet Singh

Legend Biotech (LEGN US): Takeover Interest – Possible but Tough to Pull Off

The chances for an offer are low as the offeror would face several hurdles. Nevertheless, the upcoming CARVYKTI commercial production in 2H24 will...

Arun George

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