Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Fringe financial companies often reveal underlying credit metrics before mainstream banks.This is the case across Asia in several cycles, as well as in the US during its subprime loan crisis. This is why it is illustrative to understand the near 40% profit decline at Zhejiang Xiaoshan Rural Cooperative Bank (ZGX).Thus far, only CCCR has shown worse profit growth, although many third tier banks have yet to report full-year numbers.<figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/007/265/original/net%20profit%20zgx.png?1460871073" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="7265"><figcaption class="figcaption">Source: SNL Financial</figcaption></figure>As can be expected it has suffered fromhigher…

Fringe financial companies often reveal underlying credit metrics before mainstream banks.This is the case across Asia in several cycles, as well as in the US during its subprime loan crisis. This is why it is illustrative to understand the near 40% profit decline at Zhejiang Xiaoshan Rural Cooperative Bank (ZGX).Thus far, only CCCR has shown worse profit growth, although many third tier banks have yet to report full-year numbers.Source: SNL FinancialAs can be expected it has suffered fromhigher…

A China Cooperative Bank with near 40% Profit Contraction Is Illustrative

China Commercial Credit is a specialty lender in China, although it is a listed entity in the US. What is interesting here is how its financials have deteriorated so dramatically. Where all are focused on the near zero profit growth of China’s banks, CCR shows how losses can mount to considerable levels. It is making big losses now for the past two years. It also reminds us of finance companies in Thailand in the late 1990’s and in the US subprime crisis more recently, which were the best…

China Commercial Credit is a specialty lender in China, although it is a listed entity in the US. What is interesting here is how its financials have deteriorated so dramatically. Where all are focused on the near zero profit growth of China’s banks, CCR shows how losses can mount to considerable levels. It is making big losses now for the past two years. It also reminds us of finance companies in Thailand in the late 1990’s and in the US subprime crisis more recently, which were the best…

Devastating Losses at Little Known China Specialty Lender Has Negative Implications for Bank Sector

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight">The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy.  Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the growing corporate debt problem.</div>As noted by Yongding Yu and Ting Lu in a <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cwe.12141/epdf" target="_blank">recent paper</a>(pdf), China's corporate debt issue will continue to grow unless their is ultra loose monetary policy (4% inflation and 4% rates) or much lower growth (Chart 1), in the absence of either they forecast Chinese EBITDA will trend to zero in 2030.  Given that China appears to be…

The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy.  Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the growing corporate debt problem.As noted by Yongding Yu and Ting Lu in a recent paper(pdf), China's corporate debt issue will continue to grow unless their is ultra loose monetary policy (4% inflation and 4% rates) or much lower growth (Chart 1), in the absence of either they forecast Chinese EBITDA will trend to zero in 2030.  Given that China appears to be…

How a Debt to Equity Swap Plan in China Could Work

It is strange to see that so many China banks are reporting nearly identical net profit, close to 0% in their just announced 2015 results. We presume there is some posturing and positioning amongst banks, to be sure no single bank is too out of line and reported rates of growth are similarly poor.  Gone are the days of heady growth, which is no surprise, given the ramp up of bad loans, worsening credit growth and pressure on net interest margins. As we look at a few of China’s banks newly…

It is strange to see that so many China banks are reporting nearly identical net profit, close to 0% in their just announced 2015 results. We presume there is some posturing and positioning amongst banks, to be sure no single bank is too out of line and reported rates of growth are similarly poor.  Gone are the days of heady growth, which is no surprise, given the ramp up of bad loans, worsening credit growth and pressure on net interest margins. As we look at a few of China’s banks newly…

China Bank Profit on the Way to Contraction

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Risks regarding bill-financing business have recently become a new source of concern for Chinese banks.  Bill-financing frauds seen at both the Agricultural Bank of China, or ABC, and China Citic Bank, or Citic, indicate high operational risks.Since late 2015, the China Banking Regulatory Commission has been strengthening controls by identifying violations, including fraudulent transactions, the use of financing to inflate deposits and loans, and adjustments intended to lower capital charges.  We expect this to negatively affect certain banks with relatively heavy business exposures, including ABC, China Minsheng Bank, or CMBC, and Citic.Analyst: Iris Tan, CFA

Risks regarding bill-financing business have recently become a new source of concern for Chinese banks.  Bill-financing frauds seen at both the Agricultural Bank of China, or ABC, and China Citic Bank, or Citic, indicate high operational risks.Since late 2015, the China Banking Regulatory Commission has been strengthening controls by identifying violations, including fraudulent transactions, the use of financing to inflate deposits and loans, and adjustments intended to lower capital charges.  We expect this to negatively affect certain banks with relatively heavy business exposures, including ABC, China Minsheng Bank, or CMBC, and Citic.Analyst: Iris Tan, CFA 

Tightened Regulations on China's Bill Financing Pose NIM Pressures for Certain Banks

China

Shaanxi International Trust Co., Ltd. provides a variety of non-banking financial services. The Company's services include trust deposits, trust loans, trust investment, security trading, financing and leasing, guarantee, and other related services. The Company also invests in real estate development.

Puyi Inc. provides wealth management services. The Company offers corporate finance and asset management services. Puyi distributes wealth management products both online and offline through our branch network in China.

Central China Securities Co., Ltd. is a securities company engaged in the brokerage, investment banking, investment management, and trading businesses primarily in China. The Company trades in stocks, funds, bonds, and commodity and financial futures on behalf of its clients; and provides margin financing, securities lending, and wealth management services.

Shanxi Securities Company Limited provides securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, securities proprietary trading, securities and asset management, and intermediary services for futures trading companies. The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides stock and bond underwriting and sponsorship, commodities and financial futures brokerage services.

Huaxi Securities Co., Ltd. operates securities businesses. The Company provides securities brokerage, securities underwriting, asset management, credit trading, financing, and securities consulting services. Huaxi Securities also conducts fund underwriting and futures intermediate businesses.

Guolian Securities Co. Ltd. offers financial services. The Company provides securities brokerage, asset management, securities investment, margin trading, share transfer agency, and other financial services.

Sealand Securities Co., Ltd. operates as a securities brokerage company. The Company offers securities brokerage, securities investment consulting, securities trading, securities underwriting and sponsorship, securities asset management, and other services. Sealand Securities provides services in China.

Huaan Securities Co., Ltd. operates securities institutional brokerage businesses. The Company provides securities brokerage, investment consulting, asset management, margin trading, and other securities services. Huaan Securities also offers investment and financing solution services.

Pacific Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, custodian, underwriting, trading and investment consulting services.

Southwest Securities Co., Ltd. operates in the brokerage, investment banking, asset management and the consulting services business.

Perpetual Limited is a financial services company that has two primary activities, wealth management services and corporate trust services. The Company provides funds management, responsible entity services, trustee services, executor services, financial planning, investment administration, superannuation, custody and registry services.

Capital Securities Corp. conducts a securities firm business.  The Company acts as a broker, underwriter, and dealer for financial securities.  Capital also provides loans for margin transactions and transfer agent services for financial securities.

WisdomTree, Inc. operates as an asset management firm. The Company offers sponsors exchange-traded funds and other financial products to retail and institutional investors, as well as develops digital products and structures, including digital funds, tokenized assets, and blockchain-native digital wallet. WisdomTree serves customers worldwide.

IBF Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company acts as a broker and dealer of short term bills, certifier, underwriter and guarantor of commercial papers, and broker for inter-bank call loans.  The Company also trades government bonds and provides financial consulting services.

BGC Partners Inc. is a global brokerage company servicing the financial and real estate markets. The Company provides a wide range of inter-dealer broker and commercial real estate services.

Mirae Asset Securities Co.,Ltd. provides comprehensive wealth management services. The Company offers fixed income securities brokerage, securities dealing, equity underwriting, and other services. Mirae Asset Securities also deals with mergers and acquisitions, foreign currency, and financial derivatives.

Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. is an asset management company which provides investment management and related services to individuals and institutions. It offers financial solutions and products such as mutual funds, managed accounts, institutional, closed-end funds, Virtus variable insurance trust funds, and other portfolio. The company was founded on November 1, 1995, and is headquartered in Hartford, CT.

Haitong International Securities Group Ltd. provides brokerage and retail margin  financing, corporate finance, investment management, fixed income, currency and  commodities as well as structured financing products and services to domestic and international institutional clients and individual investors.

Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK)

Bursa Malaysia Bhd is a fully integrated exchange, offering a wide range of exchange-related services, including trading, clearing, settlement, and depository services. The exchange also offers information services related to the Malaysian securities market.

Intertrust N.V. is a provider of trust and corporate services. The Company provides a broad range of high-end legal and financial administrative services to corporations, funds, financial institutions, and private individuals around the world. Intertrust operates across the Americas, Europe, Aisa, and the Middle-East.

Northeast Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, trading, underwriting, asset management, investment consulting, and other financial services.

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Northeast Securities (000686 CH)

A China Cooperative Bank with near 40% Profit Contraction Is Illustrative

Fringe financial companies often reveal underlying credit metrics before mainstream banks.This is the case across Asia in several cycles, as well...

Daniel Tabbush

Devastating Losses at Little Known China Specialty Lender Has Negative Implications for Bank Sector

China Commercial Credit is a specialty lender in China, although it is a listed entity in the US. What is interesting here is how its financials...

Daniel Tabbush

How a Debt to Equity Swap Plan in China Could Work

The government should set up a new national pension fund to save the economy. Securitising future pension payments may be the answer to the...

Mark Artherton

China Bank Profit on the Way to Contraction

It is strange to see that so many China banks are reporting nearly identical net profit, close to 0% in their just announced 2015 results. We...

Daniel Tabbush

Tightened Regulations on China's Bill Financing Pose NIM Pressures for Certain Banks

Risks regarding bill-financing business have recently become a new source of concern for Chinese banks. Bill-financing frauds seen at both the...

Morningstar, Inc.

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