Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> Greenmail Tender Offer to take Murakami-san out of his position is nearing its close. </li>
<li>Investors should make a decision imminently about where they believe the stock should trade in Price/NAV terms after the buyback is complete, once management is "stabilised."</li>
<li>My earlier piece written on the day of the announcement needs a few corrections. Those are below. </li>
</ul>


The Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) Greenmail Tender Offer to take Murakami-san out of his position is nearing its close. 
Investors should make a decision imminently about where they believe the stock should trade in Price/NAV terms after the buyback is complete, once management is "stabilised."
My earlier piece written on the day of the announcement needs a few corrections. Those are below. 


JAFCO (8595) Tender Offer Close Imminent - Decent Conviction to Not Be Long

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> and Murakami have <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/8595/tdnet/2217071/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reached an agreement</a> on a revised tender offer for 16.8 million shares (23.60% of outstanding shares) at JPY2,500 per share. </li>
<li>The revised tender offer's primary purpose remains to facilitate Murakami to tender his 19.53% shareholding at the expense of other shareholders and the misallocation of JPY42 billion (tender cost).</li>
<li>The justification for the transaction is weak as most of the benefits could have been achieved without it. This calls into question the Board's ability to enhance value.</li>
</ul>



Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) and Murakami have reached an agreement on a revised tender offer for 16.8 million shares (23.60% of outstanding shares) at JPY2,500 per share. 
The revised tender offer's primary purpose remains to facilitate Murakami to tender his 19.53% shareholding at the expense of other shareholders and the misallocation of JPY42 billion (tender cost).
The justification for the transaction is weak as most of the benefits could have been achieved without it. This calls into question the Board's ability to enhance value.


JAFCO (8595 JP): Murakami Gets His Way with a JPY2,500 Tender Offer

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, the usual year end rush in smaller deals appears to have resumed.</li>
<li>On placements front, this week was one for real estate with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5225:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK)</a>, Macrotech, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seazen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14882:1" rel="noopener">Seazen (1030 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-prologis-reit-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15683:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Prologis Reit (3283 JP)</a> undertaking deals.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, the usual year end rush in smaller deals appears to have resumed.
On placements front, this week was one for real estate with Country Garden Holdings Co (2007 HK), Macrotech, Seazen (1030 HK) and Nippon Prologis Reit (3283 JP) undertaking deals.


ECM Weekly (11th Dec 2022) - ITail, Sunshine, Weilong, VinFast, Skymark, Tian Tu, Cntry Gard, Nippon

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> announced the reference period VWAP for the Tender Offer Buyback was ¥2,362.4136 vs target ¥2,525. Murakami-san refused to play, so the Tender Offer is cancelled.</li>
<li>This is good news and bad news. The announcement wording doesn't make JAFCO look good, but they will continue discussions with City Index Eleventh. But there is potential.</li>
<li><em>I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection (Jonathan Swift, 1729)</em></li>
</ul>



Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) announced the reference period VWAP for the Tender Offer Buyback was ¥2,362.4136 vs target ¥2,525. Murakami-san refused to play, so the Tender Offer is cancelled.
This is good news and bad news. The announcement wording doesn't make JAFCO look good, but they will continue discussions with City Index Eleventh. But there is potential.
I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection (Jonathan Swift, 1729)


JAFCO (8595) Cancels Tender Offer - I Offer a Modest Proposal For Good Governance

Japan

Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. provides information technology, research, consulting, and analyzing for business strategy decision-making.  The Company also provides application software for system operation services.

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Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

JAFCO (8595) Tender Offer Close Imminent - Decent Conviction to Not Be Long

The JAFCO (8595) Greenmail Tender Offer (to get Murakami-san out) close is at hand. Borrow out and volume traded suggest pro-ration < 100%. That...

Travis Lundy

JAFCO (8595 JP): Murakami Gets His Way with a JPY2,500 Tender Offer

The justification for the transaction is weak as most of the benefits could have been achieved without it. This undermines the Board's ability to...

Arun George

ECM Weekly (11th Dec 2022) - ITail, Sunshine, Weilong, VinFast, Skymark, Tian Tu, Cntry Gard, Nippon

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

JAFCO (8595) Cancels Tender Offer - I Offer a Modest Proposal For Good Governance

JAFCO was greenmailed by Murakami-san. The other shareholders didn't buy the plan so VWAP fell short and Murakami isn't playing ball. Now they need...

Travis Lundy

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