IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lac-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8480:1" rel="noopener">Lac Co Ltd (3857 JP)</a> has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI Corp (9433 JP)</a> at JPY1,160, a 55.5% premium to the last close. </li>
<li>The pre-condition relates to an exception based on the provisions of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law. The offer is anticipated to commence in late November. </li>
<li>While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. Nevertheless, the required minority acceptance rate is achievable.    </li>
</ul>



Lac Co Ltd (3857 JP) has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from KDDI Corp (9433 JP) at JPY1,160, a 55.5% premium to the last close. 
The pre-condition relates to an exception based on the provisions of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law. The offer is anticipated to commence in late November. 
While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. Nevertheless, the required minority acceptance rate is achievable.    


LAC (3857 JP): KDDI (9433 JP)’s Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY1,160

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. This year it is Thursday and Friday. There is some funkiness to Monday too.</li>
<li>There is meaningful directional buying on one day, which then kind of gets stretched a bit. This year, circumstances suggest high confidence buying should be at the top end.</li>
<li>This year, because circumstances, I expect the trade is a lot larger than last year. I'd say ¥1.6trln. </li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. This year it is Thursday and Friday. There is some funkiness to Monday too.
There is meaningful directional buying on one day, which then kind of gets stretched a bit. This year, circumstances suggest high confidence buying should be at the top end.
This year, because circumstances, I expect the trade is a lot larger than last year. I'd say ¥1.6trln. 


The Biggish Sep 2024 "Thursday-Friday Trade"

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tech rebounds overnight led by AI related, although concerns weighing on China export names including ASML.</li>
<li>Oracle numbers beating after hours setting a positive tone for software as well as some SPE, with capex plans set to double YoY.</li>
<li>Nothing amazing from the Apple event likely to weigh on Japanese suppliers, although little expectation priced in. ARM and Softbank the big winners, with V9 chips running the new iPhones.</li>
</ul>


Tech rebounds overnight led by AI related, although concerns weighing on China export names including ASML.
Oracle numbers beating after hours setting a positive tone for software as well as some SPE, with capex plans set to double YoY.
Nothing amazing from the Apple event likely to weigh on Japanese suppliers, although little expectation priced in. ARM and Softbank the big winners, with V9 chips running the new iPhones.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Rebound Setting Positive Tone to Start

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the US$1.4 billion secondary placement announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terumo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6708:1" rel="noopener">Terumo Corp (4543 JP)</a>’s shares are down 3.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY2,771 per share (29 August).</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Terumo’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 10 September. Despite Kokusai and Honda's disappointing performance, the average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the US$1.4 billion secondary placement announcement, Terumo Corp (4543 JP)’s shares are down 3.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY2,771 per share (29 August).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Terumo’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 10 September. Despite Kokusai and Honda's disappointing performance, the average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


<ul>
<li>Not much lead from the US, although Broadcom numbers missing after hours set a slightly negative tone for tech, despite NVDA and TSLA posting gains.</li>
<li>The market should like the news that 3382 7&amp;I is engaging with ACT and asking for a higher bid, which may also indicate their failure to attain 'core' status from the JP Govt.</li>
<li>PPIH looks oversold after missing out on NKY225 inclusion yesterday, especially in comparison to Baycurrent who also missed, yet finished the day +4.5%.</li>
</ul>


Not much lead from the US, although Broadcom numbers missing after hours set a slightly negative tone for tech, despite NVDA and TSLA posting gains.
The market should like the news that 3382 7&amp;I is engaging with ACT and asking for a higher bid, which may also indicate their failure to attain 'core' status from the JP Govt.
PPIH looks oversold after missing out on NKY225 inclusion yesterday, especially in comparison to Baycurrent who also missed, yet finished the day +4.5%.


Japan Morning Connection: 7&I, PPIH, Baycurrent

Japan

Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. provides information technology, research, consulting, and analyzing for business strategy decision-making.  The Company also provides application software for system operation services.

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Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)

LAC (3857 JP): KDDI (9433 JP)’s Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY1,160

While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. Nevertheless, the...

Arun George

The Biggish Sep 2024 "Thursday-Friday Trade"

This year, the September dividend trade is likely quite a bit larger than last year. Last year was likely reduced by de-allocation. Not this year....

Travis Lundy

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Rebound Setting Positive Tone to Start

AI Tech rebound overnight. Oracle beats expectation setting positive tone for software. ARM and Softbank benefit with V9 chips in new iPhones.

Andrew Jackson

Terumo (4543 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 10 September. Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading...

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: 7&I, PPIH, Baycurrent

Slight negative tone for tech as Broadcom's earnings miss, while 7&I seeks higher bid from ACT and PPIH looks oversold post-NKY225 exclusion.

Andrew Jackson

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