China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

The focus on the recent strong growth in headline financing growth has raised concerns about underlying demand for credit and continued reliance on investment to drive growth.  However, the headline data fails to capture the important underlying trends that are important grasp the change in Chinese financing.Beginning with the aggregate YTD changes in financing, in Figure 1, we actually see that most types of financing are up strongly.  Only two categories of financing are down in 2016…

The focus on the recent strong growth in headline financing growth has raised concerns about underlying demand for credit and continued reliance on investment to drive growth.  However, the headline data fails to capture the important underlying trends that are important grasp the change in Chinese financing.Beginning with the aggregate YTD changes in financing, in Figure 1, we actually see that most types of financing are up strongly.  Only two categories of financing are down in 2016…

Chinese Credit Growth Is Shifting Where It Grows Not How Much It Grows

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Benign NPL formation in the latest quarter for China’s banks is not only due to write-offs. More likely, there is a significant amount of rescheduling happening behind the scenes, which is not totally clear on the surface. At the same time, there can be a shifting of certain assets (like loans) into held-to-maturity or other asset accounts, which obfuscate the analysis or need for NPL disclosure. The impact of this will be worsening net interest income and margins, which is what banks are now…

Benign NPL formation in the latest quarter for China’s banks is not only due to write-offs. More likely, there is a significant amount of rescheduling happening behind the scenes, which is not totally clear on the surface. At the same time, there can be a shifting of certain assets (like loans) into held-to-maturity or other asset accounts, which obfuscate the analysis or need for NPL disclosure. The impact of this will be worsening net interest income and margins, which is what banks are now…

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

There has been much discussion about China’s wish to implement economic reforms and – specifically – to deleverage. However, the reality is that corporate debt continues to rise faster than the economy. The economy is slowing down but the accumulation of debt continues.In 2014, Standard and Poor’s (S&amp;P) <a href="https://www.globalcreditportal.com/ratingsdirect/renderArticle.do?articleId=1333627&amp;SctArtId=243858&amp;from=CM&amp;nsl_code=LIME&amp;sourceObjectId=8645884&amp;sourceRevId=10&amp;fee_ind=N&amp;exp_date=20240616-20:32:13" target="_blank">outlined their view</a> of how China’s corporate debt was going to develop over the five years between 2013 and 2018, stating that it would grow from US$14.2tn to US$22.9tn - an annual growth rate of…

There has been much discussion about China’s wish to implement economic reforms and – specifically – to deleverage. However, the reality is that corporate debt continues to rise faster than the economy. The economy is slowing down but the accumulation of debt continues.In 2014, Standard and Poor’s (S&amp;P) outlined their view of how China’s corporate debt was going to develop over the five years between 2013 and 2018, stating that it would grow from US$14.2tn to US$22.9tn - an annual growth rate of…

Massive and growing debt levels in China are becoming a source of major concern to the world's banking community. Whilst some see this as manageable in the short term, without drastic reform very soon there are likely to be serious repercussions.

Massive and growing debt levels in China are becoming a source of major concern to the world's banking community. Whilst some see this as manageable in the short term, without drastic reform very soon there are likely to be serious repercussions.

Systemic Risk from Corporate Debt in China

In the last two years two of China's most senior military bureaucrats have been sentenced to long prison sentences for selling promotions for personal gain. Did any senior officersne in the PLA really earn their rank?

In the last two years two of China's most senior military bureaucrats have been sentenced to long prison sentences for selling promotions for personal gain. Did any senior officersne in the PLA really earn their rank?

China

BC Technology Group Limited operates as a technology and digital asset company. The Company provides software-as-a-service, brokerage, exchange, and insured custody services for institutions and professional investors. BC Technology Group also engages in China-focused advertising and business park area management services.

Central China Securities Co., Ltd. is a securities company engaged in the brokerage, investment banking, investment management, and trading businesses primarily in China. The Company trades in stocks, funds, bonds, and commodity and financial futures on behalf of its clients; and provides margin financing, securities lending, and wealth management services.

Shandong Internation Trust Co., Ltd. offers financing services. The Company provides capital trust, asset trust, investment banking, asset management, securities investment funds, and other services. Shandong Internation Trust offers services in China.

China Industrial Securities International Financial Group Limited provides financial services. The Company offers brokerage, loans, financing, and investment management services. China Industrial Securities International Financial Group serves customers around the world.

Luzheng Futures Co. Ltd. provides brokerage services. The Company offers futures brokerage, investment consultation, assets management, and other related services.

Guolian Securities Co. Ltd. offers financial services. The Company provides securities brokerage, asset management, securities investment, margin trading, share transfer agency, and other financial services.

Forise International Limited engages in corporate advisory, financial solution, and management consultancy businesses. The Company provides strategic planning, corporate advisory, financial restructuring, advisory and management consultancy services. Forise International serves clients in China.

Jupai Holdings Limited is a third-party wealth management service provider focusing on distributing wealth management products and providing quality product advisory services to high-net-worth individuals in China.

Puyi Inc. provides wealth management services. The Company offers corporate finance and asset management services. Puyi distributes wealth management products both online and offline through our branch network in China.

Northeast Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, trading, underwriting, asset management, investment consulting, and other financial services.

Woori Investment Bank provides a diverse line of financial services including investment banking and commercial banking services.  The Bank's services include deposits, loans, foreign exchange, letter of credit, lease finance, securities dealing, and investment.

Woori Technology Investment Co., Ltd. is a venture capital firm focusing on venture capital financing for small and medium sized companies specialized in semiconductors and affiliated facilities, biotechnology, Internet business, software, and telecommunications.  The Company also offers consulting services, and management skills for venture companies.

Kyobo Securities Co., Ltd. provides various financial services, such as brokerage underwriting, asset management, foreign exchange, corporate financing, and other related services to its clients in South Korea.  Kyobo Securities also offers investment information systems and investment consulting systems to its customers.

Yunfeng Financial Group Limited is a financial services company. The Company provides securities trading, underwriting, placements, and other related advisory services.

Yuanta Securities Korea Co., Ltd. provides securities dealing, underwriting and brokerage services. The Company also offers various services, such as mutual fund and asset management, online trading, factoring, leasing, credit cards, beneficiary certificates, and corporate finance.

M&A Capital Partners Co., Ltd. is an M&A advisory firm. The Company provides advisory service in M&A due diligence, business strategy, corporate regeneration, capital increase strategy to support owners of small and medium companies with business succession.

Diamond Hill Investment Group provides investment management services to corporations, public entities, Taft-Hartley plans, endowments, foundations, and high-net-worth individuals and families.

SPARX Group Co., Ltd. is an asset management firm which provides investment advisory, investment trust management, and securities brokerage services. The Company provides equity and funds research, sales, and investment services for corporate and individual investors.

Hengtai Securities Co Ltd is a full-service securities firm. The Company operates among others brokerage and wealth management, investment management, proprietary trading, and investment banking services. Hengtou is the business name under which Hengtai Securities does business in Hong Kong.

Marusan Securities Co., Ltd. is a comprehensive securities firm.  The Company provides financial services such as dealing, brokerage, underwriting, distribution of securities, and investment trust.  Marusan Securities has a subsidiary in Europe.

Noah Holdings Ltd. distributes wealth management products in China.  The Company serves high net-worth individuals; enterprises affiliated with high net-worth individuals; and wholesale clients, primarily local commercial banks or branches of national commercial banks which distribute wealth management products to their own clients.

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Noah Holdings (NOAH US)

Chinese Credit Growth Is Shifting Where It Grows Not How Much It Grows

The focus on the recent strong growth in headline financing growth has raised concerns about underlying demand for credit and continued reliance on...

Christopher Balding

China Asset Risk Clear in Margin Data

Benign NPL formation in the latest quarter for China’s banks is not only due to write-offs. More likely, there is a significant amount of...

Daniel Tabbush

Growing Corporate Debt in China

There has been much discussion about China’s wish to implement economic reforms and – specifically – to deleverage. However, the reality is that...

Bixmoor

Systemic Risk from Corporate Debt in China

Massive and growing debt levels in China are becoming a source of major concern to the world's banking community. Whilst some see this as...

Bixmoor

Implications of Chinese Military Graft

In the last two years two of China's most senior military bureaucrats have been sentenced to long prison sentences for selling promotions for...

Bixmoor

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