China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

<p>The focus on the recent strong growth in headline financing growth has raised concerns about underlying demand for credit and continued reliance on investment to drive growth.  However, the headline data fails to capture the important underlying trends that are important grasp the change in Chinese financing.</p><p>Beginning with the aggregate YTD changes in financing, in Figure 1, we actually see that most types of financing are up strongly.  Only two categories of financing are down in 2016…</p>

The focus on the recent strong growth in headline financing growth has raised concerns about underlying demand for credit and continued reliance on investment to drive growth.  However, the headline data fails to capture the important underlying trends that are important grasp the change in Chinese financing.Beginning with the aggregate YTD changes in financing, in Figure 1, we actually see that most types of financing are up strongly.  Only two categories of financing are down in 2016…

Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH)

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (3618 HK)

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co. (600000 CH)

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

China Financial Services Holdings (2980 HK)

China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (A) (600999 CH)

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., (601601 CH)

Flying Financial Service Holdings (8030 HK)

China Huirong Financial Holdings (1290 HK)

Changjiang Securities Company (000783 CH)

China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK)

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Chinese Credit Growth Is Shifting Where It Grows Not How Much It Grows