Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.</li>
<li>Recently, Yanai-san sold more <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>. There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).</li>
<li>There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.
Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).
There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

Honeys Holdings Co., Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Low cost apparel retailers have enjoyed a significant uptick in the past few years as consumers look to polarise their spending further between cheaper basics and luxury treats. </li>
<li>But the real change is in improving profitability. One the biggest beneficiaries has been Honeys, a low cost womenswear retailer that has seen a revival in the past few years.</li>
<li>Operating profit has tripled since 2018. Can it last? Work on creating its own low cost manufacturing base suggests it can.</li>
</ul>


Low cost apparel retailers have enjoyed a significant uptick in the past few years as consumers look to polarise their spending further between cheaper basics and luxury treats. 
But the real change is in improving profitability. One the biggest beneficiaries has been Honeys, a low cost womenswear retailer that has seen a revival in the past few years.
Operating profit has tripled since 2018. Can it last? Work on creating its own low cost manufacturing base suggests it can.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.</li>
<li>The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.</li>
<li>This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.</li>
</ul>


Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.
The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.
This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a> is potentially a leading candidate for inclusion in the Nikkei 225 in September. </li>
<li>There are other technical reasons to think it is not. </li>
<li>This insight looks at the issue of why it might be a leading candidate and why it might not be. </li>
</ul>



Mercari Inc (4385 JP) is potentially a leading candidate for inclusion in the Nikkei 225 in September. 
There are other technical reasons to think it is not. 
This insight looks at the issue of why it might be a leading candidate and why it might not be. 


Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Review - The Mercari Conundrum

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> announced Q2 earnings two weeks ago. Revenues were good. OP was good. And the company raised full-year forecasts for Sales, OP, Pre-tax, and Net Profit.</li>
<li>The stock popped sharply. It isn't "cheap" but it is under-owned, actively. And revenues up 20%yoy is a very good look.  </li>
<li>The Conundrum: the more active investors decide they like it, the more there is to sell. That creates interesting opportunities.
</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) announced Q2 earnings two weeks ago. Revenues were good. OP was good. And the company raised full-year forecasts for Sales, OP, Pre-tax, and Net Profit.
The stock popped sharply. It isn't "cheap" but it is under-owned, actively. And revenues up 20%yoy is a very good look.  
The Conundrum: the more active investors decide they like it, the more there is to sell. That creates interesting opportunities.



The Fast Retailing (9983) Selldown Conundrum - Not Now, But Soon... Then For A Long Time

Japan

Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd., is based in Hokkaido and operates a furniture retail chain.  The Company sells living room furniture, storage furniture, dining furniture, office furniture, beds, and interior goods.  Nitori Holdings also sells original brand merchandise and imported merchandise.

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Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep24 has 3mos before the data cutoff. I still see one ADD and one DELETE. There is a possible dark horse ADD, and Fast...

Travis Lundy

Sweet Honeys: A Profit Machine

Low cost apparel retailers are seeing increased profitability, with Honeys leading the way through a revival and focus on creating a low cost...

Michael Causton

Japan's Best Performing Retailers

There were strong improvements in both sales and profits for leading retailers last year and the following insight looks at the main winners and...

Michael Causton

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Review - The Mercari Conundrum

Mercari is either a leading candidate for Nikkei 225 inclusion in September 2023. Or it is not. It depends on how you mash the data, interpret the...

Travis Lundy

The Fast Retailing (9983) Selldown Conundrum - Not Now, But Soon... Then For A Long Time

Fast Retailing has overhang. On a realtime basis, that disappears if FR underperforms Nikkei 225 by 2% in the next 3 months. But it comes back next...

Travis Lundy

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Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep24 has 3mos before the data cutoff. I still see one ADD and one DELETE. There is a possible dark horse ADD, and Fast...

Travis Lundy

Sweet Honeys: A Profit Machine

​Low cost apparel retailers are seeing increased profitability, with Honeys leading the way through a revival and focus on creating a low cost...

Michael Causton

Japan's Best Performing Retailers

There were strong improvements in both sales and profits for leading retailers last year and the following insight looks at the main winners and...

Michael Causton

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Review - The Mercari Conundrum

Mercari is either a leading candidate for Nikkei 225 inclusion in September 2023. Or it is not. It depends on how you mash the data, interpret the...

Travis Lundy

The Fast Retailing (9983) Selldown Conundrum - Not Now, But Soon... Then For A Long Time

Fast Retailing has overhang. On a realtime basis, that disappears if FR underperforms Nikkei 225 by 2% in the next 3 months. But it comes back next...

Travis Lundy

Low cost apparel retailers are seeing increased profitability, with Honeys leading the way through a revival and focus on creating a low cost...