Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A Strong JPY beneficiary as the company imports &gt;80% of its products</li>
<li>Profits have been rising despite the weakness  of the Japanese Yen </li>
<li>Redesigning product portfolio to be profitable at much weaker yen levels</li>
</ul>


A Strong JPY beneficiary as the company imports &gt;80% of its products
Profits have been rising despite the weakness  of the Japanese Yen 
Redesigning product portfolio to be profitable at much weaker yen levels


Nitori (9843.T) - Headwinds to Tailwinds -Cleaning House

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.</li>
<li>It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. </li>
<li>Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.
It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. 
Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.


Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

<ul>
<li>Leading furniture retailer Nitori recently announced it would work with French platform developer Mirakl to build an online marketplace. The site will be available late 2024 or early 2025. </li>
<li>Nitori wants the mall to contribute 20% of revenues by 2032 within a sales target of ¥3 trillion, when overseas store numbers are expected to be double those in Japan.</li>
<li>But, founder Akio Nitori says he wants to see overseas sales much higher than official targets and may well get there through close targeting of the rising Asian middle class.</li>
</ul>


Leading furniture retailer Nitori recently announced it would work with French platform developer Mirakl to build an online marketplace. The site will be available late 2024 or early 2025. 
Nitori wants the mall to contribute 20% of revenues by 2032 within a sales target of ¥3 trillion, when overseas store numbers are expected to be double those in Japan.
But, founder Akio Nitori says he wants to see overseas sales much higher than official targets and may well get there through close targeting of the rising Asian middle class.


Nitori: One of the Best Bets in Japan Consumer Markets

<ul>
<li>Yesterday a news article from Bloomberg suggested 7&amp;i was "considering" an MBO. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> later confirmed they had received a non-binding proposal from ITO Junro/family.</li>
<li>The initial number was ¥9trln. If market cap? High. If EV, too low. That would have implied a price just over the first "grossly inadequate" ACT price.</li>
<li>There is a lot we don't know. This changes the landscape. It probably shifts the range trade, but it will shift more when we get more clarity on ITO-san's price.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday a news article from Bloomberg suggested 7&amp;i was "considering" an MBO. Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) later confirmed they had received a non-binding proposal from ITO Junro/family.
The initial number was ¥9trln. If market cap? High. If EV, too low. That would have implied a price just over the first "grossly inadequate" ACT price.
There is a lot we don't know. This changes the landscape. It probably shifts the range trade, but it will shift more when we get more clarity on ITO-san's price.


7&I (3382 JP) - An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce

Japan

Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd., is based in Hokkaido and operates a furniture retail chain.  The Company sells living room furniture, storage furniture, dining furniture, office furniture, beds, and interior goods.  Nitori Holdings also sells original brand merchandise and imported merchandise.

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Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)

Nitori (9843.T) - Headwinds to Tailwinds -Cleaning House

Company will benefit from strong JPY as importing majority of products, redesigning portfolio for profitability at weaker yen levels.

Rikki Malik

Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Fast Retailing announced decent earnings for Q3 and upgraded forecasts for August 2023. It also raised its full-year dividend vs previous guidance....

Travis Lundy

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Nitori: One of the Best Bets in Japan Consumer Markets

Furniture retailer Nitori to launch online marketplace as part of plans for a tripling of revenue by 2032 through online growth at home overseas...

Michael Causton

7&I (3382 JP) - An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce

An MBO for Seven & i by the ITO family? Maybe. And the number was big (¥3450/sh), unless it was small (¥2,300/sh), and we don't know which. But it...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nitori (9843.T) - Headwinds to Tailwinds -Cleaning House

​Company will benefit from strong JPY as importing majority of products, redesigning portfolio for profitability at weaker yen levels.

Rikki Malik

Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Fast Retailing announced decent earnings for Q3 and upgraded forecasts for August 2023. It also raised its full-year dividend vs previous guidance....

Travis Lundy

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Nitori: One of the Best Bets in Japan Consumer Markets

​Furniture retailer Nitori to launch online marketplace as part of plans for a tripling of revenue by 2032 through online growth at home overseas...

Michael Causton

7&I (3382 JP) - An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce

An MBO for Seven & i by the ITO family? Maybe. And the number was big (¥3450/sh), unless it was small (¥2,300/sh), and we don't know which. But it...

Travis Lundy

Company will benefit from strong JPY as importing majority of products, redesigning portfolio for profitability at weaker yen levels.

Furniture retailer Nitori to launch online marketplace as part of plans for a tripling of revenue by 2032 through online growth at home overseas...