'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><div>
<p>Our best and worst pair is child apparel specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nishimatsuya-chain-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13375:1" rel="noopener">Nishimatsuya Chain (7545 JP)</a> and food ingredients maker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/riken-vitamin-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20980:1" rel="noopener">Riken Vitamin (4526 JP)</a>. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/836/original/2020-10-01_06-09-42.png?1601500212" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162836"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/837/original/2020-10-01_06-13-47.png?1601500441" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162837"></figure><p>Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</p>
</div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>20 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 30% Positive / 10% Neutral / 60% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -1.9 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -7.5% Quarter YoY / -9.9% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -10.1ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 20%</p></li>
</ul></div>
<hr>
<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>15 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div>
<div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 35% Positive / 6% Neutral / 59% Negative</p></li>
<li><p>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 60% Positive / 0% Neutral / 40% Negative</p></li>
<li><p>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +0.6 points</p></li>
</ul></div>
</div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •
Our best and worst pair is child apparel specialist Nishimatsuya Chain (7545 JP) and food ingredients maker Riken Vitamin (4526 JP). 

Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics


DAILY STATS

20 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 30% Positive / 10% Neutral / 60% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -1.9 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -7.5% Quarter YoY / -9.9% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -10.1ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 20%


15 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 35% Positive / 6% Neutral / 59% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 60% Positive / 0% Neutral / 40% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +0.6 points



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​30 - Nishimatsuya Chain, Adastria, Strike, Riken Vitamin

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<p>Retail sales slumped again in May, but only because people are not buying clothes, visiting department stores and shopping centres, or buying their lunches at convenience stores.</p><p>Although this led to another major drop in total sales, several sectors did very well and in June there was a surge in spending at some speciality chains and a return to some semblance of normality for many.</p>

Retail sales slumped again in May, but only because people are not buying clothes, visiting department stores and shopping centres, or buying their lunches at convenience stores.Although this led to another major drop in total sales, several sectors did very well and in June there was a surge in spending at some speciality chains and a return to some semblance of normality for many.

Japan Retail: Essentials Strong in May but in June Even Discretionary Bounces Back

<p>Most apparel firms and retailers suffered plummeting sales in March and expect a further wrenching in April.</p><p>The only retailers to post higher sales were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/workman-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1" rel="noopener">Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nishimatsuya-chain-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13375:1" rel="noopener">Nishimatsuya Chain (7545 JP).</a> The only good news is that many saw online sales surge as consumers switched to mobile purchases. While this wasn’t enough to offset lost sales in stores, it will catalyse the shift to online.</p>

Most apparel firms and retailers suffered plummeting sales in March and expect a further wrenching in April.The only retailers to post higher sales were Workman Co Ltd (7564 JP) and Nishimatsuya Chain (7545 JP). The only good news is that many saw online sales surge as consumers switched to mobile purchases. While this wasn’t enough to offset lost sales in stores, it will catalyse the shift to online.

90% of Japanese Listed Apparel Firms Down but E-Commerce Powers Ahead

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/126/005/original/2020-04-02_06-04-47.png?1585775193" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="126005"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>WEDNESDAY 1ST APRIL</strong> - The fallout in the financial Sectors continued on Wednesday with <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a></strong>halving its Ordinary Profit forecast and almost dipping into a net loss. The<strong> ¥209 billon</strong> worth of revisions relates to market value adjustments at <strong>Frontier Life </strong>and a decline in the share price of equity affiliate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/janus-henderson-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26077:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Janus Henderson (JHG US)</strong></a>. The dividend remains unchanged. Of the sixteen revisions and five results announced, our positive/negative scoring ratio was <strong>4:10</strong> for revisions and <strong>2:3</strong> for results.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/126/006/original/File%202020-04-01%2020%2015%2017.jpeg?1585775842" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="126006"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • NHK</div><p><strong>MASKING THE PROBLEM</strong> - Despite calls from medical experts and widespread rumours of stricter measures, the Abe Government has limited its response to extending school closures for another month and sending every household two washable cloth masks. Mask wearing and social distancing are suddenly now rife in political circles. Unfortunately, so are some xenophobic comments. In a similar vein, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>  has stopped receiving airmail to be sent to 126 countries and any mail to a further 27.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/126/023/original/2020-04-02_07-13-19.png?1585779225" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="126023"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>MARKETS</strong> - The BoJ's market intervention was only half that of the previous four, however, was still over 4% of TOPIX Value Traded.  We continue to recommend hitting their bid and waiting for the absolute value opportunity.</p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsWEDNESDAY 1ST APRIL - The fallout in the financial Sectors continued on Wednesday with Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)halving its Ordinary Profit forecast and almost dipping into a net loss. The ¥209 billon worth of revisions relates to market value adjustments at Frontier Life and a decline in the share price of equity affiliate Janus Henderson (JHG US). The dividend remains unchanged. Of the sixteen revisions and five results announced, our positive/negative scoring ratio was 4:10 for revisions and 2:3 for results.Source • NHKMASKING THE PROBLEM - Despite calls from medical experts and widespread rumours of stricter measures, the Abe Government has limited its response to extending school closures for another month and sending every household two washable cloth masks. Mask wearing and social distancing are suddenly now rife in political circles. Unfortunately, so are some xenophobic comments. In a similar vein, Japan Post (6178 JP)  has stopped receiving airmail to be sent to 126 countries and any mail to a further 27.Source • Japan AnalyticsMARKETS - The BoJ's market intervention was only half that of the previous four, however, was still over 4% of TOPIX Value Traded.  We continue to recommend hitting their bid and waiting for the absolute value opportunity.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 1st April - Masking the Problem

<p>The apparel and fashion market contracted slightly last year and no single format was immune to the tougher trading environment – even the online channel.</p>
<p>The large store formats suffered the worst but a number of major specialty chains also posted lower sales. In e-commerce, even <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a> suffered its lowest sales growth in several years.</p>
<p>The reasons are clear: consumption of apparel fell again last year while other categories like home interiors, food and communications rose.</p>
<p>At the same time, the leading specialty retailers face saturation in some product categories and territories. As a result, e-commerce share continues to grow as does that of the biggest firms – the top 10 apparel retailers saw their share increase 3 points in a year to 30%.</p>
<p><strong>This is Part I of a 2-part review of Japan's apparel and fashion markets. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/winners-losers-and-key-business-trends-in-japanese-fashion-retailing-2018-19" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Part II of our review is here</a> and has profiles of the winners in 2018-19 and key trends impacting performance now and going forward.</strong></p>

The apparel and fashion market contracted slightly last year and no single format was immune to the tougher trading environment – even the online channel.
The large store formats suffered the worst but a number of major specialty chains also posted lower sales. In e-commerce, even ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) suffered its lowest sales growth in several years.
The reasons are clear: consumption of apparel fell again last year while other categories like home interiors, food and communications rose.
At the same time, the leading specialty retailers face saturation in some product categories and territories. As a result, e-commerce share continues to grow as does that of the biggest firms – the top 10 apparel retailers saw their share increase 3 points in a year to 30%.
This is Part I of a 2-part review of Japan's apparel and fashion markets. Part II of our review is here and has profiles of the winners in 2018-19 and key trends impacting performance now and going forward.

Japan Fashion Market Review 2019 Part I: A Stable Market but Tougher Trading All Round

Japan

NISHIMATSUYA CHAIN Co., Ltd., a specialty retailer, sells mainly clothes for infants and children, and also women and men.  The Company also sells maternity clothes and new born baby goods.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nishimatsuya Chain (7545 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/30 - Nishimatsuya Chain, Adastria, Strike, Riken Vitamin

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair is home centre Keiyo (8168 JP) and the department store J Front Retailing (3086 JP) although the...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail: Essentials Strong in May but in June Even Discretionary Bounces Back

Retail sales slumped again in May, but only because people are not buying clothes, visiting department stores and shopping centres, or buying their...

Michael Causton

90% of Japanese Listed Apparel Firms Down but E-Commerce Powers Ahead

Most apparel firms and retailers suffered plummeting sales in March and expect a further wrenching in April.The only retailers to post higher sales...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 1st April - Masking the Problem

WEDNESDAY 1ST APRIL - The fallout in the financial Sectors continued on Wednesday with Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)halving its Ordinary Profit...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Fashion Market Review 2019 Part I: A Stable Market but Tougher Trading All Round

The apparel and fashion market contracted slightly last year and no single format was immune to the tougher trading environment – even the online...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​30 - Nishimatsuya Chain, Adastria, Strike, Riken Vitamin

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair is home centre Keiyo (8168 JP) and the department store J Front Retailing (3086 JP) although the...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail: Essentials Strong in May but in June Even Discretionary Bounces Back

Retail sales slumped again in May, but only because people are not buying clothes, visiting department stores and shopping centres, or buying their...

Michael Causton

90% of Japanese Listed Apparel Firms Down but E-Commerce Powers Ahead

Most apparel firms and retailers suffered plummeting sales in March and expect a further wrenching in April.The only retailers to post higher sales...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 1st April - Masking the Problem

WEDNESDAY 1ST APRIL - The fallout in the financial Sectors continued on Wednesday with Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)halving its Ordinary Profit...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Fashion Market Review 2019 Part I: A Stable Market but Tougher Trading All Round

The apparel and fashion market contracted slightly last year and no single format was immune to the tougher trading environment – even the online...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/30 - Nishimatsuya Chain, Adastria, Strike, Riken Vitamin