Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>AI boom reflected in record fund ownership in ASML Holding NV (ASML NA), NVIDIA Corp and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT).</li>
<li>The 'Magnificent 7' group of stocks have hit a record underweight of -6.83% below the MSCI ACWI index.  They collectively account for 11.2% of the average Global fund.</li>
<li>Recovery Stocks: The old guard of At&amp;T Inc (T US), International Business Machines (IBM US) and General Electric (GE US) appear to be gathering some support from active Global funds.</li>
</ul>


AI boom reflected in record fund ownership in ASML Holding NV (ASML NA), NVIDIA Corp and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT).
The 'Magnificent 7' group of stocks have hit a record underweight of -6.83% below the MSCI ACWI index.  They collectively account for 11.2% of the average Global fund.
Recovery Stocks: The old guard of At&amp;T Inc (T US), International Business Machines (IBM US) and General Electric (GE US) appear to be gathering some support from active Global funds.


Global Stock Positioning:  MSFT Dominates, Mag7 Record U/W, Apple Inflows, Tobacco Uninvestable?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>An <a href="https://bunshun.jp/denshiban/articles/b10138" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> in Japanese weekly magazine <em>Bunshun </em>this morning sent shares in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a> limit up +17% with a headline that NTT Docomo was interested to buy.</li>
<li>Without access to the article, I can't go deep, but the base concept is that NTT Docomo is "worried" about KDDI (which has a bank, as does Softbank Corp)</li>
<li>It is not clear how serious it is, SBI Sumishin is super-expensive, and buying a bank isn't the same as buying a company. Hmmm...</li>
</ul>


An article in Japanese weekly magazine Bunshun this morning sent shares inSBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) limit up +17% with a headline that NTT Docomo was interested to buy.
Without access to the article, I can't go deep, but the base concept is that NTT Docomo is "worried" about KDDI (which has a bank, as does Softbank Corp)
It is not clear how serious it is, SBI Sumishin is super-expensive, and buying a bank isn't the same as buying a company. Hmmm...


NTT (9432 JP) And SBI Sumishin NetBank (7163 JP)? Maybe. Maybe Not. Seven Bank A Better Idea

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kadokawa-dwango-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4152:1" rel="noopener">Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP)</a> shares rose 16% after <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/sony-talks-buy-media-powerhouse-behind-elden-ring-sources-say-2024-11-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> is in talks to acquire it. Kadokawa confirmed an initial letter of intent. </li>
<li>The privatisation interest is unsurprising as Kadokawa’s publishing arm, acclaimed intellectual properties, and positioning in the anime industry would be attractive to Sony.</li>
<li>The upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a risk if a binding proposal emerges, it could be takeunder like Bain/T-Gaia.</li>
</ul>



Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP) shares rose 16% after Reuters reported that Sony Corp (6758 JP) is in talks to acquire it. Kadokawa confirmed an initial letter of intent. 
The privatisation interest is unsurprising as Kadokawa’s publishing arm, acclaimed intellectual properties, and positioning in the anime industry would be attractive to Sony.
The upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a risk if a binding proposal emerges, it could be takeunder like Bain/T-Gaia.


Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

<ul>
<li>We screen for Global companies at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Global equity funds.</li>
<li>Low Positioning coupled with Negative Momentum:  Intel Corporation and Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation.</li>
<li>High Positioning coupled with High Momentum:  Amphenol Corporation and Iberdrola SA </li>
</ul>


We screen for Global companies at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges among active Global equity funds.
Low Positioning coupled with Negative Momentum:  Intel Corporation and Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation.
High Positioning coupled with High Momentum:  Amphenol Corporation and Iberdrola SA 


Japan

Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation provides a variety of telecommunication services, including telephone, telegraph, leased circuits, data communication, terminal equipment sales, and related services. The Company provides both local and long distance telephone services within Japan.

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

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NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP)

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Global Stock Positioning: MSFT Dominates, Mag7 Record U/W, Apple Inflows, Tobacco Uninvestable?

The latest in stock-level investor positioning among over 300 active Global funds. We explore the AI boom, key over/underweights, Tobacco's...

Steven Holden

NTT (9432 JP) And SBI Sumishin NetBank (7163 JP)? Maybe. Maybe Not. Seven Bank A Better Idea

A news weekly magazine Bunshun today had an article suggesting a bank executive thought NTT Docomo was on its way to buying SBI Sumishin Netbank....

Travis Lundy

Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

While an acquisition has a strong strategic rationale, the upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a...

Arun George

Global Funds: Extreme Stocks

In this report, we utilize our Global fund holdings database to screen for stocks at the extreme ends of their positioning or momentum ranges.

Steven Holden

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