China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>XPEV/NIO/LI/TSLA/1211HK: 16 major automakers pledge to jointly maintain order in China auto market (+/+/+/+/+)</li>
<li>XPEV: Xpeng G6's conversion rate exceeds 50%, outperforming the industry (+)</li>
<li>ZLAB：ZLAB’s FcRn Efgartigimod received NMPA approval. We expect 2023 revenue US$10mn (-)</li>
</ul>


XPEV/NIO/LI/TSLA/1211HK: 16 major automakers pledge to jointly maintain order in China auto market (+/+/+/+/+)
XPEV: Xpeng G6's conversion rate exceeds 50%, outperforming the industry (+)
ZLAB：ZLAB’s FcRn Efgartigimod received NMPA approval. We expect 2023 revenue US$10mn (-)


China TMT Update-XPEV/NIO/LI/TSLA/1211HK/ZLAB: 16 Automakers Pledge to Maintain Order;G6 Conversion

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul>
<li>We summarize the Jun 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li>
<li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.</li>
<li>We are of the view that Tesla is still resilient, while NIO’s key metrics in Jun were below our expectation.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


We summarize the Jun 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.
Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.
We are of the view that Tesla is still resilient, while NIO’s key metrics in Jun were below our expectation.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Jun leading indicators: NIO weaker than expected

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain HOLD. We project NIO’s net loss in 2Q23E to be similar to 1Q23, at around RMB 4.9bn.</li><li>We estimate that its recent price cuts on margin dent to be limited in FY23E but more severe in FY24-25E.</li><li>Such price cuts could also make its new brand less differentiated from the NIO brand, in our view.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain HOLD. We project NIO’s net loss in 2Q23E to be similar to 1Q23, at around RMB 4.9bn.We estimate that its recent price cuts on margin dent to be limited in FY23E but more severe in FY24-25E.Such price cuts could also make its new brand less differentiated from the NIO brand, in our view.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NIO Inc. (NIO US) – Margin dent from price cuts lingers into FY24-25

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A collapse of real estate speculation destroyed the balance sheets of Chinese households, leading to downward spiral in consumptions. A tremendous stimulus package can reflate the economy, </li>
<li>But it doesn’t solve the structural problems; Unlike semiconductor and biotech, inputs to renewable energy are many and supply chains are long.  To stay ahead, Chinese companies must keep themselves </li>
<li>Cost competitive,  which means they can neither realize profits nor retaliate US containments. But their equities offer the long-term hope to replace real estate as nest eggs of Chinese retirees.</li>
</ul>


A collapse of real estate speculation destroyed the balance sheets of Chinese households, leading to downward spiral in consumptions. A tremendous stimulus package can reflate the economy, 
But it doesn’t solve the structural problems; Unlike semiconductor and biotech, inputs to renewable energy are many and supply chains are long.  To stay ahead, Chinese companies must keep themselves 
Cost competitive,  which means they can neither realize profits nor retaliate US containments. But their equities offer the long-term hope to replace real estate as nest eggs of Chinese retirees.


[Blue Lotus Macro]: Economic Stimulus Shouldn’t Be Pain Killers

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Black Sesame Technologies / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Black Sesame International Holdings (BSIH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and Huatai.</li>
<li>BSIH is an automotive-grade computing SoC and SoC-based intelligent vehicle solution provider. </li>
<li>In terms of shipment of automotive-grade high-computing power SoCs in 2022, it was the third largest provider globally, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.</li>
</ul>


Black Sesame International Holdings (BSIH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and Huatai.
BSIH is an automotive-grade computing SoC and SoC-based intelligent vehicle solution provider. 
In terms of shipment of automotive-grade high-computing power SoCs in 2022, it was the third largest provider globally, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.


China

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

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NIO (NIO US)

China TMT Update-XPEV/NIO/LI/TSLA/1211HK/ZLAB: 16 Automakers Pledge to Maintain Order;G6 Conversion

XPEV/NIO/LI/TSLA/1211HK: 16 major automakers pledge to jointly maintain order;XPEV: Xpeng G6's conversion rate exceeds 50% (+)ZLAB：ZLAB’s FcRn...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Auto Sector – Jun leading indicators: NIO weaker than expected

We summarize the Jun 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

NIO Inc. (NIO US) – Margin dent from price cuts lingers into FY24-25

Maintain HOLD. We project NIO’s net loss in 2Q23E to be similar to 1Q23, at around RMB 4.9bn. We estimate that its recent price cuts on margin dent...

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Macro]: Economic Stimulus Shouldn’t Be Pain Killers

To stay ahead, Chinese companies must keep themselves cost competitive. But their equities offer the long-term hope to replace real estate as nest...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Black Sesame Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Black Sesame International Holdings (BSIH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CICC and Huatai.

Sumeet Singh

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