Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>March parcel volume growth (22.7%) improved against an easy comp (-3.1%) from 2022</li>
<li>Prices are declining, too (-3.2% Y/Y) -- not yet precipitous, but worst since Q1 2022</li>
<li>Based on what we see, ZTO's 2023 volume targets will still be difficult to meet</li>
</ul>


March parcel volume growth (22.7%) improved against an easy comp (-3.1%) from 2022
Prices are declining, too (-3.2% Y/Y) -- not yet precipitous, but worst since Q1 2022
Based on what we see, ZTO's 2023 volume targets will still be difficult to meet


TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: Volume Up Versus Weak Comp | Prices Down | Yunda Lags Group

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Combined January-February express industry parcel volume was up just 4.6% Y/Y, and ASPs were down -1.8% Y/Y</li>
<li>Listed express companies' parcel volume and government-reported online tangible goods sales in the first two months of 2023 also both up a modest ~5% Y/Y</li>
<li>In a year when one express player hopes to list its shares, it's unclear who will be willing to concede market share. We expect price competition to intensify in 2023.</li>
</ul>


Combined January-February express industry parcel volume was up just 4.6% Y/Y, and ASPs were down -1.8% Y/Y
Listed express companies' parcel volume and government-reported online tangible goods sales in the first two months of 2023 also both up a modest ~5% Y/Y
In a year when one express player hopes to list its shares, it's unclear who will be willing to concede market share. We expect price competition to intensify in 2023.


TRACKING TRAFFIC: Chinese Express / No Signs of a Sharp Recovery in Jan-Feb Data

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23628:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express (ZTO US)</a> met consensus Q422 EPS estimate despite a miss on Revenue</li>
<li>Management expects to exceed industry volume growth (around +10%) in 2023</li>
<li>Likely obstacles to a sharp earnings recovery are: ASP momentum, "new-old" competition, and a lack of demonstrated cost control</li>
</ul>



ZTO Express (ZTO US) met consensus Q422 EPS estimate despite a miss on Revenue
Management expects to exceed industry volume growth (around +10%) in 2023
Likely obstacles to a sharp earnings recovery are: ASP momentum, "new-old" competition, and a lack of demonstrated cost control


ZTO Express Q4/2022 Results & Guidance:  Moderate Growth in '23, but Also Obstacles

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman Inc (2057 HK)</a>'s 63.1% surge in 3Q22 adjusted net profit demonstrated its ability to thrive even amid the challenging operating environment.  </li>
<li>It is positive on FY23 outlook and believes industry volume can return to double-digit growth. ZTO is confident of market share gain, better cost management and stable pricing. </li>
<li>We think its premium valuations are highly justified by strong cash generating ability. The increase of US$500m and lengthening of one year in share repurchase are very welcomed.</li>
</ul>



ZTO Express Cayman Inc (2057 HK)'s 63.1% surge in 3Q22 adjusted net profit demonstrated its ability to thrive even amid the challenging operating environment.  
It is positive on FY23 outlook and believes industry volume can return to double-digit growth. ZTO is confident of market share gain, better cost management and stable pricing. 
We think its premium valuations are highly justified by strong cash generating ability. The increase of US$500m and lengthening of one year in share repurchase are very welcomed.


ZTO Express (2057 HK/​​ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenues of major express parcel companies grew rapidly in August.</li>
<li>JD logistics will provide logistics service to live streaming retailers on Douyin.</li>
<li>In 2Q22, revenue of Trip.com decreased by 32% YoY and operating profit turned negative.</li>
</ul>


Revenues of major express parcel companies grew rapidly in August.
JD logistics will provide logistics service to live streaming retailers on Douyin.
In 2Q22, revenue of Trip.com decreased by 32% YoY and operating profit turned negative.


China Internet Weekly (26Sep2022): S.F., STO, YTO, Yunda, JD Logistics, Alibaba, Baidu, Trip.com

China

Yunda Holding Co Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides industrial investment, enterprise management, business consulting, car rental, technical development, information technology, and advertising services. Yunda Holding serves customers in China.

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Yunda Holding (002120 CH)

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: Volume Up Versus Weak Comp | Prices Down | Yunda Lags Group

In March, Chinese express industry volume was up 22.7% Y/Y against easy comps, but ASPs declined the most since February 2022. We still believe ZTO...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC: Chinese Express / No Signs of a Sharp Recovery in Jan-Feb Data

So far in 2023, parcel volume has recovered only moderately. We believe the industry may again see price deterioration after a brief respite in 2022.

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q4/2022 Results & Guidance: Moderate Growth in '23, but Also Obstacles

ZTO guides strong volume growth and potentially better unit economics in '23, but we expect price pressure to return, and the company needs to rein...

Daniel Hellberg

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact

ZTO's strong 3Q22 net profit growth and increased buyback program are both positive developments. It is also confident on the FY23 outlook as...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Internet Weekly (26Sep2022): S.F., STO, YTO, Yunda, JD Logistics, Alibaba, Baidu, Trip.com

Revenues of major express parcel companies grew rapidly in August. JD logistics will provide logistics service to Douyin. In 2Q22, Trip.com's...

Ming Lu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

TRACKING TRAFFIC/Chinese Express: Volume Up Versus Weak Comp | Prices Down | Yunda Lags Group

In March, Chinese express industry volume was up 22.7% Y/Y against easy comps, but ASPs declined the most since February 2022. We still believe ZTO...

Tracking Traffic

TRACKING TRAFFIC: Chinese Express / No Signs of a Sharp Recovery in Jan-Feb Data

So far in 2023, parcel volume has recovered only moderately. We believe the industry may again see price deterioration after a brief respite in 2022.

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q4/2022 Results & Guidance: Moderate Growth in '23, but Also Obstacles

ZTO guides strong volume growth and potentially better unit economics in '23, but we expect price pressure to return, and the company needs to rein...

Daniel Hellberg

ZTO Express (2057 HK/​​ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact

ZTO's strong 3Q22 net profit growth and increased buyback program are both positive developments. It is also confident on the FY23 outlook as...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Internet Weekly (26Sep2022): S.F., STO, YTO, Yunda, JD Logistics, Alibaba, Baidu, Trip.com

Revenues of major express parcel companies grew rapidly in August. JD logistics will provide logistics service to Douyin. In 2Q22, Trip.com's...

Ming Lu

ZTO Express (2057 HK/ZTO US): Solid Upward Momentum Stays Intact