Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celsys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20774:1" rel="noopener">CELSYS (3663 JP)</a> (formerly known as "Artspark") is a name we have been Bullish on in the last few months as it was a high-probability TOPIX Inclusion candidate.</li>
<li>In the last couple of trading days, the stock has popped more than 30%. In this insight, we take a closer look at this situation.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.

CELSYS (3663 JP) (formerly known as "Artspark") is a name we have been Bullish on in the last few months as it was a high-probability TOPIX Inclusion candidate.
In the last couple of trading days, the stock has popped more than 30%. In this insight, we take a closer look at this situation.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2023)

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Samsung announced that it would reduce memory chip production in light of crashing profits, this is after the company had previously said it would not reduce production. Memory names rallied.</li>
<li>Hon Hai announced a $820m investment plan for EV manufacturing in southern Taiwan.</li>
<li>Japan's semiconductor manufacturing equipment export restrictions targeting China will take effect starting in July.</li>
</ul>


Samsung announced that it would reduce memory chip production in light of crashing profits, this is after the company had previously said it would not reduce production. Memory names rallied.
Hon Hai announced a $820m investment plan for EV manufacturing in southern Taiwan.
Japan's semiconductor manufacturing equipment export restrictions targeting China will take effect starting in July.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung Finally Announces Chip Production Cuts; Hon Hai's New EV Factory

<ul>
<li>Samsung reported 4Q22 detailed results - Semiconductor earnings evaporated and its memory subsegment likely lost money.</li>
<li>Samsung re-iterated that it would NOT cut capex despite the market downturn - Samsung appears ready to endure losses which is negative for Nanya Tech, SK Hynix, and Micron.</li>
<li>Japan and the Netherlands have joined the U.S. with chip technology restrictions for China - Hon Hai is a net winner.</li>
</ul>


Samsung reported 4Q22 detailed results - Semiconductor earnings evaporated and its memory subsegment likely lost money.
Samsung re-iterated that it would NOT cut capex despite the market downturn - Samsung appears ready to endure losses which is negative for Nanya Tech, SK Hynix, and Micron.
Japan and the Netherlands have joined the U.S. with chip technology restrictions for China - Hon Hai is a net winner.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung Results; Will Bleed Competitors; Japan & Holland Join China Chip Ban

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019</li>
<li>Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash</li>
<li>It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%</li>
</ul>


Semiconductor revenues continue to fall. which appears to be a repeat of the collapse in 2019
Spot market prices, a leading indicator, are soft for both DRAM and NAND flash
It is likely that semiconductor revenues will end the year by returning to the trendline of their historical growth of 3.9%


Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

Japan

NIKON CORPORATION manufactures and sells cameras, lenses, semiconductor-related equipment, eyeglasses, microscopes, and measuring instruments.

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Nikon Corp (7731 JP)

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2023)

CELSYS has been working for a move to the Prime Market since August 2022 and with the recent rise in share price they could be able to satisfy all...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung Finally Announces Chip Production Cuts; Hon Hai's New EV Factory

Samsung reversed its production capacity strategy after suffering losses. Also, Japan's semiconductor manufacturing equipment export restrictions...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Samsung Results; Will Bleed Competitors; Japan & Holland Join China Chip Ban

Samsung re-iterated that it would NOT cut capex despite the market downturn - Samsung appears ready to endure losses which is negative for Nanya...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductors Just Beginning a Long Slide

The semiconductor market is falling and is likely to continue to drop through the end of the year. This presents an opportunity for shorts.

Jim Handy

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