Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With the Japanese stock market on the up-and-up, the big question – though not necessarily one on all that many minds – is whether this is a seasonal rally, or whether this is structural. Invariably under Abe, and more often than not during the quantitative easing (QE) era (2003~?), Japanese equities have gone up in the fourth quarter. However, on two occasions, 2014 and 2016, they’ve slumped as we’ve moved into the new year, more than offsetting the fourth quarter gains. Given that Kuroda…

With the Japanese stock market on the up-and-up, the big question – though not necessarily one on all that many minds – is whether this is a seasonal rally, or whether this is structural. Invariably under Abe, and more often than not during the quantitative easing (QE) era (2003~?), Japanese equities have gone up in the fourth quarter. However, on two occasions, 2014 and 2016, they’ve slumped as we’ve moved into the new year, more than offsetting the fourth quarter gains. Given that Kuroda…

Japan Market Strategy - Will the Frequent January Sell-Off Ruin the Current Market Rally?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Japan, Korea and China make up well over 30% of our portfolio and the markets that we have touted to stand out and perform. We have been reducing short exposure in light of our call for a Q4 equity melt up. We are currently 45% net long and will move to 50%.Asia and EM equities will be able to weather near term USD strength given our view that the dollar rise is corrective in nature toward DXY 95.30 or Euro 1.15. We remain bullish Asian equities into year-end. An upcoming theme will be to rotate…

Japan, Korea and China make up well over 30% of our portfolio and the markets that we have touted to stand out and perform. We have been reducing short exposure in light of our call for a Q4 equity melt up. We are currently 45% net long and will move to 50%.Asia and EM equities will be able to weather near term USD strength given our view that the dollar rise is corrective in nature toward DXY 95.30 or Euro 1.15. We remain bullish Asian equities into year-end. An upcoming theme will be to rotate…

The headline BoJ Tankan number (for large manufacturers) came out at 22, up from 17 last time and representing the highest figure post Lehman. While the Tankan rarely tells you anything you didn’t know, given that there is a widespread anti-Abe tirade from the media at present, it's a reminder that for the average Japanese business, life under Abe is a lot better than under his predecessors.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/034/854/original/Tankan.PNG?1507067798" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="34854"></figure>The Tankan figure provides a decent indication that we are very much at the top end of the Goldilocks…

The headline BoJ Tankan number (for large manufacturers) came out at 22, up from 17 last time and representing the highest figure post Lehman. While the Tankan rarely tells you anything you didn’t know, given that there is a widespread anti-Abe tirade from the media at present, it's a reminder that for the average Japanese business, life under Abe is a lot better than under his predecessors.The Tankan figure provides a decent indication that we are very much at the top end of the Goldilocks…

BoJ Tankan Suggests Goldilocks Scenario Still in Place... For Now

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus, Aletheia Capital

Chris Roberts

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

The Nikkei 225 (NKY 20,267) is expected to make new highs above last year’s 20,953 peak, as the bull market that started in 2008 continues. The favourable breadth of the broader Topix Index (TPX – 1,664), which has been a leading indicator for this bull market continues to impress. There is a chance that as the Nikkei 225 finally moves away from the 20,000+ resistance zone, a ceiling for 24 years, that the market ignites a wave of speculation that takes the index well above our base case target of 24,000+.

The Nikkei 225 (NKY 20,267) is expected to make new highs above last year’s 20,953 peak, as the bull market that started in 2008 continues. The favourable breadth of the broader Topix Index (TPX – 1,664), which has been a leading indicator for this bull market continues to impress. There is a chance that as the Nikkei 225 finally moves away from the 20,000+ resistance zone, a ceiling for 24 years, that the market ignites a wave of speculation that takes the index well above our base case target of 24,000+.

Land of the Rising Index – Japanese Equities

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Japan's Democratic Party is joining under Koike's Hope Party banner to run against the LDP. The risks of Abe's gambit are rising quickly. It would probably take a defection of the Komeito party to really threaten the LDP (which seems highly unlikely) but Koike's momentum is something to behold. As we had previously commented, Abe's election gambit is nowhere near as safe as he might assume and while it still seems probable that he will avoid the fate of other ousted incumbents, this development…

Japan's Democratic Party is joining under Koike's Hope Party banner to run against the LDP. The risks of Abe's gambit are rising quickly. It would probably take a defection of the Komeito party to really threaten the LDP (which seems highly unlikely) but Koike's momentum is something to behold. As we had previously commented, Abe's election gambit is nowhere near as safe as he might assume and while it still seems probable that he will avoid the fate of other ousted incumbents, this development…

Japan's Democratic Party to Merge With/Run Under Koike's Hope Party in Election

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Japan Market Strategy - Will the Frequent January Sell-Off Ruin the Current Market Rally?

With the Japanese stock market on the up-and-up, the big question – though not necessarily one on all that many minds – is whether this is a...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Nikkei Breakout to Mushroom

Japan, Korea and China make up well over 30% of our portfolio and the markets that we have touted to stand out and perform. We have been reducing...

Thomas Schroeder

BoJ Tankan Suggests Goldilocks Scenario Still in Place... For Now

The headline BoJ Tankan number (for large manufacturers) came out at 22, up from 17 last time and representing the highest figure post Lehman....

Pelham Smithers Associates

Land of the Rising Index – Japanese Equities

The Nikkei 225 (NKY 20,267) is expected to make new highs above last year’s 20,953 peak, as the bull market that started in 2008 continues. The...

Chris Roberts

Japan's Democratic Party to Merge With/Run Under Koike's Hope Party in Election

Japan's Democratic Party is joining under Koike's Hope Party banner to run against the LDP. The risks of Abe's gambit are rising quickly. It would...

Mio Kato