Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

The current pullback within Japan’s TOPIX and Nikkei 225 indexes is offering an opportunity to add exposure to attractive constituents. Consumer electronics manufacturers are particularly attractive. Today we direct your attention to four stocks with the best setups in the group: Sony (6758-JP), Nintendo (7974-JP), FUJIFILM (4901-JP), and Zenrin (9474-JP). Add exposure.

The current pullback within Japan’s TOPIX and Nikkei 225 indexes is offering an opportunity to add exposure to attractive constituents. Consumer electronics manufacturers are particularly attractive. Today we direct your attention to four stocks with the best setups in the group: Sony (6758-JP), Nintendo (7974-JP), FUJIFILM (4901-JP), and Zenrin (9474-JP). Add exposure.

Amid the Turmoil, Buy Opportunities in Japan: Sony, Nintendo, FUJIFILM, Zenrin

Improvements in Japan are leading broad developed int’l indexes higher. The MSCI EAFE, local currency is bullishly inflecting above its downtrend and putting an end to the YTD pattern of lower highs. Both the TOPIX and Nikkei 225 have continued to improve, and now the TOPIX Small index is also bullishly inflecting. We provide a technical appraisal of major global markets, and highlight a number of actionable stocks within Japan, and across international markets.

Improvements in Japan are leading broad developed int’l indexes higher. The MSCI EAFE, local currency is bullishly inflecting above its downtrend and putting an end to the YTD pattern of lower highs. Both the TOPIX and Nikkei 225 have continued to improve, and now the TOPIX Small index is also bullishly inflecting. We provide a technical appraisal of major global markets, and highlight a number of actionable stocks within Japan, and across international markets.

MSCI EAFE Inflecting, Aided by Strength in Japan

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

APATHY STRIKES AGAIN<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/686/original/2018-09-23_17-11-57.png?1537690346" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64686"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>THE APATHY INDICATOR - Our Fortnightly Update for 26th August highlighted the lack of market activity after the end of the results announcements over the previous six weeks. In recent years, similar periods of apathy had coincided with market turning points, usually to the upside. After an initial rally the following week, our 'apathy indicator' added another three signals before the market subsequently bottomed out on 7th September. Since then, Total Market Value has risen by 6.7%, TOPIX has had its best week in almost two years, both the 50 and 200-day moving averages were surpassed and, on Friday, the Value Traded Ratio had its fifth-best day of the year. Its 'party-time' here indeed.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/690/original/2018-09-23_17-44-03.png?1537692262" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64690"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>BREAKOUT - Much fanfare was also made over the fact that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22909" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> reached a 26-year high and broke out of nine-month and 22-year trading ranges. Although such positive news is always welcome for us Japan-only 'diehards', both TOPIX and TOPIX-US$ reached new 26-year highs in January, only to later fade away for the next seven months. New highs for both these indices are required to confirm that the December 1989 high is indeed again the target.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/701/original/2018-09-05_19-59-32.png?1537698981" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64701"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>GAIJIN WRONGFOOTED - As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/25" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25">Travis Lundy</a> noted on 2nd September - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-flow-redux-foreign-investor-flows-still-matter-and-they-are-still-cyclical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:23654">Foreign Investor Flows (Still) Matter, and They Are (Still) Cyclical</a>, foreign investor flows have recently been at 'the lower end of the cycle' and foreign investors tend to be pro-cyclical price-takers chasing returns on a net exposure basis driven by the relative performance of the US$TOPIX/S&amp;P 500 ratio. As we also noted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-seasonality-sell-in-july-and-say-goodbye-please-come-back-on-culture-day" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:23682">Japan: Seasonality</a>, historically September is the second-worst performing month in the Japanese market calendar with October being the fourth-worst. Add some concerns over trade and auto tariffs to the mix and a portfolio underweighting of Japan at the start of this quarter was not going to alarm any trustees. Given all of the above and with a holiday this Monday, some sharp short-covering was also in evidence towards to end of last week in anticipation of more leisurely-timed long-only fund flows to come.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/704/original/2018-09-23_20-08-06.png?1537700901" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64704"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>CHEAP + UPSIDE TO FORECASTS - The last two weeks have taken the total market cap (ex REITs) to back above ¥700t, however, the trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PER is still below 15x. In aggregate the current forecasts for current year's Net Income are nearly ¥2t behind the TTM data, leaving scope for some market-boosting upward revisions in November as the (mostly interim) results are announced. Assuming upward revisions bring forecasts in line with our estimate the November TTM aggregate Net Income of ¥50t, the market PE at the January peak capitalisation would still be below 15x.  CAVEATS - Curbing the enthusiasm in the last paragraph are some macro caveats. Industrial production has slowed to nearly zero in recent months, and higher wage income is being mostly channelled into increased savings. For the first time in the post-WWII era, both profit's share and labour's share of GDP exceed 12%. Both cannot continue to rise in tandem indefinitely, and we would expect the former to turn down before the latter. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/705/original/2018-09-23_20-19-16.png?1537701582" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64705"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/707/original/2018-09-23_20-34-21.png?1537702506" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64707"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>OUTLOOK - After a hectic four-day week and another shortened week to come, a pause would be welcome. The 5-day Relative Strength Index at 91 is at its highest level since 8th November 2017 and is in the first percentile of occurrences over the last three years. The 25-day Toraku advance-decline indicator is also nearing '120'. Although this is far from perfect as an indicator, recent peaks and troughs have coincided with Toraku outliers. Two weeks ago, we suggested the market would rise and Yen would fall 'into the month end absent any adverse developments on the trade front'. With newly-re-elected PM Abe in New York this week, we expect another quiet week for the continuing (now sector-specific) Japan-US trade negotiations. Further Yen weakness would limit any short-term profit-taking, and there are still enough global portfolios underweight Japan to buy the coming dip and support rolling our forecast forward until month-end.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our sector recommendations have fared less well over the last two weeks. Our most-preferred marginally out-performed our least-preferred with the gains in Energy and Telecoms offsetting 'losses' from underweights in Utilities, Machinery, Real Estate and Autos and overweights in Information Technology and Other Commercial Products. COMPANIES - Our results, revisions and stock performance reviews below contain short comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11720" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11720:1">Kikkoman (2801 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4102" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4102:1">Nissan Chemical (4021 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1496" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1">Showa Denko (4004 JP)</a>.

APATHY STRIKES AGAINSource: Japan AnalyticsTHE APATHY INDICATOR - Our Fortnightly Update for 26th August highlighted the lack of market activity after the end of the results announcements over the previous six weeks. In recent years, similar periods of apathy had coincided with market turning points, usually to the upside. After an initial rally the following week, our 'apathy indicator' added another three signals before the market subsequently bottomed out on 7th September. Since then, Total Market Value has risen by 6.7%, TOPIX has had its best week in almost two years, both the 50 and 200-day moving averages were surpassed and, on Friday, the Value Traded Ratio had its fifth-best day of the year. Its 'party-time' here indeed.Source: Japan AnalyticsBREAKOUT - Much fanfare was also made over the fact that the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) reached a 26-year high and broke out of nine-month and 22-year trading ranges. Although such positive news is always welcome for us Japan-only 'diehards', both TOPIX and TOPIX-US$ reached new 26-year highs in January, only to later fade away for the next seven months. New highs for both these indices are required to confirm that the December 1989 high is indeed again the target.Source: Japan AnalyticsGAIJIN WRONGFOOTED - As Travis Lundy noted on 2nd September - Foreign Investor Flows (Still) Matter, and They Are (Still) Cyclical, foreign investor flows have recently been at 'the lower end of the cycle' and foreign investors tend to be pro-cyclical price-takers chasing returns on a net exposure basis driven by the relative performance of the US$TOPIX/S&amp;P 500 ratio. As we also noted in Japan: Seasonality, historically September is the second-worst performing month in the Japanese market calendar with October being the fourth-worst. Add some concerns over trade and auto tariffs to the mix and a portfolio underweighting of Japan at the start of this quarter was not going to alarm any trustees. Given all of the above and with a holiday this Monday, some sharp short-covering was also in evidence towards to end of last week in anticipation of more leisurely-timed long-only fund flows to come.Source: Japan AnalyticsCHEAP + UPSIDE TO FORECASTS - The last two weeks have taken the total market cap (ex REITs) to back above ¥700t, however, the trailing-twelve-month (TTM) PER is still below 15x. In aggregate the current forecasts for current year's Net Income are nearly ¥2t behind the TTM data, leaving scope for some market-boosting upward revisions in November as the (mostly interim) results are announced. Assuming upward revisions bring forecasts in line with our estimate the November TTM aggregate Net Income of ¥50t, the market PE at the January peak capitalisation would still be below 15x.  CAVEATS - Curbing the enthusiasm in the last paragraph are some macro caveats. Industrial production has slowed to nearly zero in recent months, and higher wage income is being mostly channelled into increased savings. For the first time in the post-WWII era, both profit's share and labour's share of GDP exceed 12%. Both cannot continue to rise in tandem indefinitely, and we would expect the former to turn down before the latter. Source: Japan AnalyticsOUTLOOK - After a hectic four-day week and another shortened week to come, a pause would be welcome. The 5-day Relative Strength Index at 91 is at its highest level since 8th November 2017 and is in the first percentile of occurrences over the last three years. The 25-day Toraku advance-decline indicator is also nearing '120'. Although this is far from perfect as an indicator, recent peaks and troughs have coincided with Toraku outliers. Two weeks ago, we suggested the market would rise and Yen would fall 'into the month end absent any adverse developments on the trade front'. With newly-re-elected PM Abe in New York this week, we expect another quiet week for the continuing (now sector-specific) Japan-US trade negotiations. Further Yen weakness would limit any short-term profit-taking, and there are still enough global portfolios underweight Japan to buy the coming dip and support rolling our forecast forward until month-end.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our sector recommendations have fared less well over the last two weeks. Our most-preferred marginally out-performed our least-preferred with the gains in Energy and Telecoms offsetting 'losses' from underweights in Utilities, Machinery, Real Estate and Autos and overweights in Information Technology and Other Commercial Products. COMPANIES - Our results, revisions and stock performance reviews below contain short comments on Kikkoman (2801 JP), Nissan Chemical (4021 JP) and Showa Denko (4004 JP).

Our outlook for ex-U.S. markets (MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index, local currency) remains neutral - bordering on cautious. Our concern stems from the recent pattern of lower highs and continued underperformance relative to MSCI ACWI - remain underweight.  Two bright spots: we are seeing bullish inflections in Japan (TOPIX and Nikkei 225), and India's SENSEX.  We unpack these, and also highlight actionable set ups in our global Communications, and Transportation Sectors.

Our outlook for ex-U.S. markets (MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index, local currency) remains neutral - bordering on cautious. Our concern stems from the recent pattern of lower highs and continued underperformance relative to MSCI ACWI - remain underweight.  Two bright spots: we are seeing bullish inflections in Japan (TOPIX and Nikkei 225), and India's SENSEX.  We unpack these, and also highlight actionable set ups in our global Communications, and Transportation Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Japan and India

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. This insight updates our list of overbought and oversold companies reviews the best and worst performing companies by RPS over the last month and makes some specific long and short stock recommendations.COMPANY RPS STATISTICS - The Company 'outlier' thresholds are set to "+4" for overbought and "-2" for oversold. We have excluded the first twelve months of trading for newly-listed companies to remove the distortion created by the initial over-pricing of most public offerings in Japan of which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27149" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1">Mercari (4385 JP)</a> is the latest example. Currently, 123 companies are 'overbought', and 116 are 'oversold' - 3.3% and 3.2% of the 3,672 listed companies for which monthly data is available.  The current numbers and percentages are the largest in many years. Overbought and oversold states account for 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively of the 837,586 months of data covered since October 1990. The average 'overbought persistence' is four months with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16576" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16576:1">Lion (4912 JP)</a> holding the record for the longest period at 24 months from September 2016 to date. The average 'oversold persistence' is 7.5 months with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9013" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9013:1">Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP)</a> holding the record having been in that state for the 45 months since January 2015. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/063/937/original/2018-09-15_16-41-44.png?1536997320" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="63937"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>OUTLIER EXTREMES - Currently, the percentage of companies that are positive outliers (&gt;4) it is a 26-year high, while the percentage of negative outliers (&lt;-2) is at a 17-year high. In the past and unsurprisingly, increases in the ratio of positive and negative outliers have been bullish and bearish, respectively. It is highly unusual for both positive and negative outliers to be rising sharply at the same time. The only similar period in the last thirty years was during the 'tech bubble'. In February 2000 the overbought and oversold percentages peaked at 2.4% and 20.5%, respectively. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/064/123/original/2018-09-18_11-05-49.png?1537236390" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="64123"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>MARKET TIMING TEMPTATION - It is always appealing to attempt to derive trading strategies from such data - a temptation we shall resist except for the observations that the oversold ratio rises into market peaks but that a decline in the overbought ratio of at least one percentage point is required to confirm a peak. At present, only the former condition is fulfilled.  COMPANY RECOMMENDATIONS - Recommendations and comments are provided below on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5718" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1">Shiseido (4911 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4126" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10020" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10020:1">Sakai Moving Service (9039 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8029" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8029:1">Milbon (4919 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8467" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1">Workman (7564 JP)</a> as well as new entrants and potential additions to the long and short Relative Price Score Portfolios.

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are, as a result, on a comparable scale, 'overbought' and 'oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. This insight updates our list of overbought and oversold companies reviews the best and worst performing companies by RPS over the last month and makes some specific long and short stock recommendations.COMPANY RPS STATISTICS - The Company 'outlier' thresholds are set to "+4" for overbought and "-2" for oversold. We have excluded the first twelve months of trading for newly-listed companies to remove the distortion created by the initial over-pricing of most public offerings in Japan of which Mercari (4385 JP) is the latest example. Currently, 123 companies are 'overbought', and 116 are 'oversold' - 3.3% and 3.2% of the 3,672 listed companies for which monthly data is available.  The current numbers and percentages are the largest in many years. Overbought and oversold states account for 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively of the 837,586 months of data covered since October 1990. The average 'overbought persistence' is four months with Lion (4912 JP) holding the record for the longest period at 24 months from September 2016 to date. The average 'oversold persistence' is 7.5 months with Nippon Sheet Glass (5202 JP) holding the record having been in that state for the 45 months since January 2015. Source: Japan AnalyticsOUTLIER EXTREMES - Currently, the percentage of companies that are positive outliers (&gt;4) it is a 26-year high, while the percentage of negative outliers (&lt;-2) is at a 17-year high. In the past and unsurprisingly, increases in the ratio of positive and negative outliers have been bullish and bearish, respectively. It is highly unusual for both positive and negative outliers to be rising sharply at the same time. The only similar period in the last thirty years was during the 'tech bubble'. In February 2000 the overbought and oversold percentages peaked at 2.4% and 20.5%, respectively. Source: Japan AnalyticsMARKET TIMING TEMPTATION - It is always appealing to attempt to derive trading strategies from such data - a temptation we shall resist except for the observations that the oversold ratio rises into market peaks but that a decline in the overbought ratio of at least one percentage point is required to confirm a peak. At present, only the former condition is fulfilled.  COMPANY RECOMMENDATIONS - Recommendations and comments are provided below on Shiseido (4911 JP), Lasertec (6920 JP), Sakai Moving Service (9039 JP), Milbon (4919 JP) and Workman (7564 JP) as well as new entrants and potential additions to the long and short Relative Price Score Portfolios.

Japan: Most Overbought and Oversold - Relative Price Score Update - Companies

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Amid the Turmoil, Buy Opportunities in Japan: Sony, Nintendo, FUJIFILM, Zenrin

The current pullback within Japan’s TOPIX and Nikkei 225 indexes is offering an opportunity to add exposure to attractive constituents. Consumer...

Vermilion Research

MSCI EAFE Inflecting, Aided by Strength in Japan

Improvements in Japan are leading broad developed int’l indexes higher. The MSCI EAFE, local currency is bullishly inflecting above its downtrend...

Vermilion Research

Japan Fortnightly Update: Celebration

APATHY STRIKES AGAINTHE APATHY INDICATOR - Our Fortnightly Update for 26th August highlighted the lack of market activity after the end of the...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Japan and India

Our outlook for ex-U.S. markets (MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. index, local currency) remains neutral - bordering on cautious. Our concern stems from the...

Vermilion Research

Japan: Most Overbought and Oversold - Relative Price Score Update - Companies

RELATIVE PRICE SCORE - The Relative Price Score (RPS) measures stock price performance relative to TOPIX and is calculated by comparing the current...

Campbell Gunn