Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Technical Analysis

<p>Asia's strong horses are showing weakening stances that are vulnerable to follow the bear camp lower from key sell resistance points. US tech hangs in the balance and have driven home divergences that warn of a top cycle in tech (TSMC and SEC stall) and in risk in late July/early August into what is a seasonally weak period.</p><div>Top long conviction in A50/H shares (wobble to sell early), ASX (momentum struggle) and Taiwan (RSI problems with TSMC froth). India transitioning from less bullish to the bear camp as banks begin to show cracks.</div><div></div><div>Top short conviction in Nikkei/TOPIX, Singapore and Malaysia (pressuring 1,615 pivot resistance). Korea testing top of range with some noise. HSI short a bounce.</div><div></div><div>A DXY low near 93 and dollar low in Asia will act as a key input for a risk turn. This webcast touches on the DXY, USD/KRW and USD/SGD. Pockets are USD strength are already well established versus the THB, IDR, INR with MYR next in line as well as USD/CNH troughing.</div>

Asia's strong horses are showing weakening stances that are vulnerable to follow the bear camp lower from key sell resistance points. US tech hangs in the balance and have driven home divergences that warn of a top cycle in tech (TSMC and SEC stall) and in risk in late July/early August into what is a seasonally weak period.Top long conviction in A50/H shares (wobble to sell early), ASX (momentum struggle) and Taiwan (RSI problems with TSMC froth). India transitioning from less bullish to the bear camp as banks begin to show cracks.Top short conviction in Nikkei/TOPIX, Singapore and Malaysia (pressuring 1,615 pivot resistance). Korea testing top of range with some noise. HSI short a bounce.A DXY low near 93 and dollar low in Asia will act as a key input for a risk turn. This webcast touches on the DXY, USD/KRW and USD/SGD. Pockets are USD strength are already well established versus the THB, IDR, INR with MYR next in line as well as USD/CNH troughing.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has formed an overlapping rising wedge that spells trouble for the Japanese equity market as a second rejection at 23k is in process. USD/JPY has cleanly broken below 106.80 support and the Japan bank index is set to break lower out of the micro bear flag.</p><p>A number of negatives are aligning to make this a top short play as the global risk cycle matures to a point of inflection in August. Japan is over owned and overbought.</p><p>This is a quick update on our insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nikkei-23k-sell-zone" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40564" rel="noopener">Nikkei 23k Sell Zone.</a></p>

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has formed an overlapping rising wedge that spells trouble for the Japanese equity market as a second rejection at 23k is in process. USD/JPY has cleanly broken below 106.80 support and the Japan bank index is set to break lower out of the micro bear flag.A number of negatives are aligning to make this a top short play as the global risk cycle matures to a point of inflection in August. Japan is over owned and overbought.This is a quick update on our insight Nikkei 23k Sell Zone.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/201/original/File%202020-07-10%204%2058%2031.jpeg?1594328270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145201"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Our World In Data</div>
<p><strong>COVID-19 RETURNS</strong> - The other 'result' reported yesterday was the record daily COVID-19 new case count for Tokyo of<strong> 224</strong> and a three-month nationwide high of <strong>354</strong>. Japan's 7-day rolling average is now close to that of Italy. Although hospital capacity is no longer an issue and only 216 people are in critical care, the pace of normalisation will have to be readjusted.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/202/original/2020-07-10_06-33-39.png?1594330447" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145202"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/203/original/2020-07-10_06-37-00.png?1594330642" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145203"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>NEW LOWS</strong> - With three large retailers reporting weak quarters, both our Results Score and Interim Forecast/Revision Score reached new ten-year lows. The Annual Forecast/Revision Score is flattered by a high degree of forecasting reticence at present. The Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions suggests that these Scores will close the 'gap' to the 2009 lows in the next month.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>31 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 24 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -4.9</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -9.6% Quarter YoY / +1.4% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change: </strong>-0.9ppt</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>12 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 5 Positive / 0 Neutral / 7 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 2 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -4.5</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Our World In Data
COVID-19 RETURNS - The other 'result' reported yesterday was the record daily COVID-19 new case count for Tokyo of 224 and a three-month nationwide high of 354. Japan's 7-day rolling average is now close to that of Italy. Although hospital capacity is no longer an issue and only 216 people are in critical care, the pace of normalisation will have to be readjusted.
Source • Japan Analytics
NEW LOWS - With three large retailers reporting weak quarters, both our Results Score and Interim Forecast/Revision Score reached new ten-year lows. The Annual Forecast/Revision Score is flattered by a high degree of forecasting reticence at present. The Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions suggests that these Scores will close the 'gap' to the 2009 lows in the next month.
DAILY STATS
31 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 24 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -4.9

Average % Change in Revenue: -9.6% Quarter YoY / +1.4% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -0.9ppt
 12 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 5 Positive / 0 Neutral / 7 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 0 Neutral / 2 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -4.5


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 9th July - COVID-19 Returns & New Lows

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> backed off of stiff resistance at the 23,000 zone and a secondary test and failure at this level would set up a harder pullback cycle. Japan has been a market we have been long since late March and on dip in May.</p><p>USD/JPY is expected break lower below the 106.80 pivot support to test 1.05 which will act as the bigger risk inflection. Below 105 we are eyeing 100-102.</p><p>23,000-500 marks a tough congestion area as pointed out in the daily chart cycle (previous lows and range zone).</p><p>We outline three trades. Buy a dip for a test on 23k, short 23k for a deeper summer pullback and then buying that low for a Q3 rise to test macro triple tops outlined in the weekly cycle.</p>

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) backed off of stiff resistance at the 23,000 zone and a secondary test and failure at this level would set up a harder pullback cycle. Japan has been a market we have been long since late March and on dip in May.USD/JPY is expected break lower below the 106.80 pivot support to test 1.05 which will act as the bigger risk inflection. Below 105 we are eyeing 100-102.23,000-500 marks a tough congestion area as pointed out in the daily chart cycle (previous lows and range zone).We outline three trades. Buy a dip for a test on 23k, short 23k for a deeper summer pullback and then buying that low for a Q3 rise to test macro triple tops outlined in the weekly cycle.

<div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a>  2,950 buy zone and level to put on risk in Asia and Europe worked well but charts have shown clear fractures after the SPX break below trendline pivot. This reaction higher will exhaust by late this week or early next week ahead off the bigger turn cycle due from June 22 into July but could impact weaker markets as soon at June 18 (HK, Singapore, Malaysia, Europe).</div><div></div><div>Cycle - June 22/27 primary cycle turn timeline. If we are rallying into this cycle we expect a top (base case and so far on track). SPX 3,120 a key level to monitor into the 18th.</div><div></div><div>Call to put on risk in Asia in our long group yesterday (Nikkei, ASX, Taiwan, Korea, Europe) to trade a one week push back into sell zones to set up a bigger cycle peak in late June.</div>


S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)  2,950 buy zone and level to put on risk in Asia and Europe worked well but charts have shown clear fractures after the SPX break below trendline pivot. This reaction higher will exhaust by late this week or early next week ahead off the bigger turn cycle due from June 22 into July but could impact weaker markets as soon at June 18 (HK, Singapore, Malaysia, Europe).Cycle - June 22/27 primary cycle turn timeline. If we are rallying into this cycle we expect a top (base case and so far on track). SPX 3,120 a key level to monitor into the 18th.Call to put on risk in Asia in our long group yesterday (Nikkei, ASX, Taiwan, Korea, Europe) to trade a one week push back into sell zones to set up a bigger cycle peak in late June.

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Asia Short Bets as Strong Horses Bend

Asia's strong horses are showing weakening stances that are vulnerable to follow the bear camp lower from key sell resistance points. US tech hangs...

Thomas Schroeder

Nikkei Cracks Under 23k Macro Barrier

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has formed an overlapping rising wedge that spells trouble for the Japanese equity market as a second rejection at 23k is in...

Thomas Schroeder

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 9th July - COVID-19 Returns & New Lows

COVID-19 RETURNS - The other 'result' reported yesterday was the record daily COVID-19 new case count for Tokyo of 224 and a three-month...

Campbell Gunn

Nikkei 23k Sell Zone

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) backed off of stiff resistance at the 23,000 zone and a secondary test and failure at this level would set up a harder...

Thomas Schroeder

Asia's Rally into Sell Zones

S&P 500 (SPX INDEX) 2,950 buy zone and level to put on risk in Asia and Europe worked well but charts have shown clear fractures after the...

Thomas Schroeder