Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Technical Analysis

Having failed to convincingly rally back over the past two weeks, the Nikkei 225 is once again approaching key levels.A break below 28,300, should we see it,  would be an important development that could not be ignored.

Having failed to convincingly rally back over the past two weeks, the Nikkei 225 is once again approaching key levels.A break below 28,300, should we see it,  would be an important development that could not be ignored.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The Nikkei today released a market consultation on proposed changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. Most of the changes are minor and will have little to no impact on the index.The main changes proposed include capping the weight of new constituents in the index at 1% by using a Price Adjustment Factor, limiting the number of index changes at a periodic review to 3, and changing the index universe from stocks listed on TSE's 1st section to stocks that are listed on the Prime Market (post the reorganisation).Limiting the weight of the new constituents in the index at 1% will keep index turnover low and reduce the impact of passive buying on the inclusions.Limiting the Price Adjustment Factor to 1 decimal place will necessitate selling of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sompo-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:632:1" rel="noopener">Sompo Holdings (8630 JP)</a> by passive funds if the proposals are implemented.The consultation closes on 13 June and comments can be submitted <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/governance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.Finally, the Nikkei thanks everyone's contribution to the consultation but clearly states that it will make a decision at its own discretion... thanks for sharing though!

The Nikkei today released a market consultation on proposed changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). Most of the changes are minor and will have little to no impact on the index.The main changes proposed include capping the weight of new constituents in the index at 1% by using a Price Adjustment Factor, limiting the number of index changes at a periodic review to 3, and changing the index universe from stocks listed on TSE's 1st section to stocks that are listed on the Prime Market (post the reorganisation).Limiting the weight of the new constituents in the index at 1% will keep index turnover low and reduce the impact of passive buying on the inclusions.Limiting the Price Adjustment Factor to 1 decimal place will necessitate selling of Sompo Holdings (8630 JP) by passive funds if the proposals are implemented.The consultation closes on 13 June and comments can be submitted here.Finally, the Nikkei thanks everyone's contribution to the consultation but clearly states that it will make a decision at its own discretion... thanks for sharing though!

Nikkei225 Market Consultation: Tweaks and Changes Proposed; Nikkei Will Use Its Own Discretion

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Weaker markets are showing support cracks as strong horses reach for minor new highs into the late April/early May cycle inflection timeline while the USD is due to find support near the DXY low zone. This aligns for a peak in risk.

Weaker markets are showing support cracks as strong horses reach for minor new highs into the late April/early May cycle inflection timeline while the USD is due to find support near the DXY low zone. This aligns for a peak in risk.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Despite a much more mixed market environment, our weight-of-the-evidence approach continues to support a constructive intermediate-term outlook. The bottom line: there is little evidence that suggests a pullback would be anything more than a buying opportunity.

Despite a much more mixed market environment, our weight-of-the-evidence approach continues to support a constructive intermediate-term outlook. The bottom line: there is little evidence that suggests a pullback would be anything more than a buying opportunity.

Defensives Are Worth A Look; Hang Seng, Shanghai Comp, Nikkei 225, STOXX 50 Support Levels Holding

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

The two charts below look at both the Topix Index and the Nikkei 225.In the case of the Topix , we are now sustaining below the 55 day moving average thereby opening up the risk of losses to the tune of 6% from current levels.For the Nikkei 225, there is no break yet but we sit on key levels that are pivotal for the market in the short term.

The two charts below look at both the Topix Index and the Nikkei 225.In the case of the Topix , we are now sustaining below the 55 day moving average thereby opening up the risk of losses to the tune of 6% from current levels.For the Nikkei 225, there is no break yet but we sit on key levels that are pivotal for the market in the short term.

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Nikkei 225: Approaching the Pivots

The refreshed chart of the Nikkei 225 highlights the important levels to watch as the market's vulnerabilities re-emerge

Shyam Devani

Nikkei225 Market Consultation: Tweaks and Changes Proposed; Nikkei Will Use Its Own Discretion

There are a few big changes proposed to the Nikkei225 index methodology along with a few minor tweaks. Sompo (8630 JP) will be sold at the 2021...

Brian Freitas

Topping Wedge Patterns in Equity Risk

Weaker markets are showing support cracks as strong horses reach for minor new highs into the late April/early May cycle inflection timeline while...

Thomas Schroeder

Defensives Are Worth A Look; Hang Seng, Shanghai Comp, Nikkei 225, STOXX 50 Support Levels Holding

A review of major global indexes reveals an absence of major breakdowns. We highlight opportunities within defensive Sectors (Real Estate, Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Japanese Indices Remain on Back Foot

The bearish break on the Topix Index as well as the key levels being tested on the Nikkei 225 warrant serious concern in the short term

Shyam Devani