Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> closed September down at 31857.62, CC=-3 (3 months down). Did not double-bottom at August's lows (31674), but is starting to be OVERSOLD MONTHLY (time perspective).</li>
<li>A new Market Reversal Matrix Seasonality model is hinting that October 2023 probably will not see a rally/reversal, but just below-average gains (if any).</li>
<li>One possible scenario (due to concomitant WEEKLY OVERSOLD conditions) is to see the Nikkei up early in October, then down again, closing the month with small gains or a loss.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 INDEX closed September down at 31857.62, CC=-3 (3 months down). Did not double-bottom at August's lows (31674), but is starting to be OVERSOLD MONTHLY (time perspective).
A new Market Reversal Matrix Seasonality model is hinting that October 2023 probably will not see a rally/reversal, but just below-average gains (if any).
One possible scenario (due to concomitant WEEKLY OVERSOLD conditions) is to see the Nikkei up early in October, then down again, closing the month with small gains or a loss.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Forecast for October: Not So Good...

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Are we witnessing a short-term carry-trade unwind or trend change?</li>
<li>JPY's strength and overall market weakness continue to go hand in hand.</li>
<li>Any near-term bounce  be used to reduce exposure in certain sectors</li>
</ul>


Are we witnessing a short-term carry-trade unwind or trend change?
JPY's strength and overall market weakness continue to go hand in hand.
Any near-term bounce  be used to reduce exposure in certain sectors


Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> is getting WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT after just +1 week up. Rallying further during the next 2-3 weeks may be hard, it could stall or fall.</li>
<li>If the index rallies further this week, it could fall the following week. Alternatively it could stall this week and rally the following week/s, but OVERBOUGHT status won't go away.</li>
<li>34256 is the Q3 resistance target on CC=+3, this should be a hard barrier to breach. An earlier barrier is Q3 resistance on the Gen.Pattern Boxplot = 33835.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 INDEX is getting WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT after just +1 week up. Rallying further during the next 2-3 weeks may be hard, it could stall or fall.
If the index rallies further this week, it could fall the following week. Alternatively it could stall this week and rally the following week/s, but OVERBOUGHT status won't go away.
34256 is the Q3 resistance target on CC=+3, this should be a hard barrier to breach. An earlier barrier is Q3 resistance on the Gen.Pattern Boxplot = 33835.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Enters WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT Resistance Area

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> fell -5.77% during July and August (CC=-2). Currently the index is down for September: this month's negative Close would be = CC=-3, a strong LONG signal.</li>
<li>The index reached a low = 31275.25 in August, right in the middle of the 32391-30600 support price band indicated in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-nikkei-225-nky-monthly-trajectories" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis</a>,  50%-75% reversal probability.</li>
<li>LONG Support levels are confirmed, in this insight we will analyze the new, re-calculated Resistance levels, to evaluate how far/how long the index could rise, if it rallies.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 INDEX fell -5.77% during July and August (CC=-2). Currently the index is down for September: this month's negative Close would be = CC=-3, a strong LONG signal.
The index reached a low = 31275.25 in August, right in the middle of the 32391-30600 support price band indicated in our previous MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis,  50%-75% reversal probability.
LONG Support levels are confirmed, in this insight we will analyze the new, re-calculated Resistance levels, to evaluate how far/how long the index could rise, if it rallies.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis

<ul>
<li>Rebound on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> may not last for long, 2-3 weeks tops, it will encounter resistance no later than mid of September (most unfavorable month for stocks gains).</li>
<li>Resistance levels to watch vary, depending on number of weeks up. For this week and the next, a new pullback could start from 32476 and 32817.</li>
<li>If the index goes =&gt;33000, it means it is rallying and will not correct into September, the rally then could last into October.</li>
</ul>


Rebound on Nikkei 225 INDEX may not last for long, 2-3 weeks tops, it will encounter resistance no later than mid of September (most unfavorable month for stocks gains).
Resistance levels to watch vary, depending on number of weeks up. For this week and the next, a new pullback could start from 32476 and 32817.
If the index goes =&gt;33000, it means it is rallying and will not correct into September, the rally then could last into October.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Rising but for How Long?

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Forecast for October: Not So Good...

The Nikkei 225 closed September down, becoming MONTHLY OVERSOLD. October may not bring a rally, but rather below-average gains. Possible scenario:...

Nico Rosti

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

Given the short-term oversold conditions in the Nikkei and Topix, we would take some profits on any shorts in anticipation of a bounce and get...

Rikki Malik

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Enters WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT Resistance Area

The Nikkei 225 Index is WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT after its 1-week up rally (CC=+1), additional gains in the next 2-3 weeks will be hampered down by...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis

The Nikkei 225 INDEX fell in July/August. Currently down also in September, could reach OVERSOLD condition. Newly-generated resistance levels are...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Rising but for How Long?

MRM's analysis of the Nikkei 225: the rebound may be short-lived, facing resistance by mid-September. Watch for reversals if it reaches 32476 or...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Forecast for October: Not So Good...

​The Nikkei 225 closed September down, becoming MONTHLY OVERSOLD. October may not bring a rally, but rather below-average gains. Possible scenario:...

Nico Rosti

Nowhere to Run to Baby, Nowhere to Hide! Part 1

Given the short-term oversold conditions in the Nikkei and Topix, we would take some profits on any shorts in anticipation of a bounce and get...

Rikki Malik

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Enters WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT Resistance Area

​The Nikkei 225 Index is WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT after its 1-week up rally (CC=+1), additional gains in the next 2-3 weeks will be hampered down by...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis

​The Nikkei 225 INDEX fell in July/August. Currently down also in September, could reach OVERSOLD condition. Newly-generated resistance levels are...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) Rising but for How Long?

MRM's analysis of the Nikkei 225: the rebound may be short-lived, facing resistance by mid-September. Watch for reversals if it reaches 32476 or...

Nico Rosti

The Nikkei 225 closed September down, becoming MONTHLY OVERSOLD. October may not bring a rally, but rather below-average gains. Possible scenario:...

The Nikkei 225 Index is WEEKLY OVERBOUGHT after its 1-week up rally (CC=+1), additional gains in the next 2-3 weeks will be hampered down by...

The Nikkei 225 INDEX fell in July/August. Currently down also in September, could reach OVERSOLD condition. Newly-generated resistance levels are...