Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Technical Analysis

<p>The choppy Indian stock indices are looking more vulnerable by the day. Nifty is now trading below key levels which, if it sustains, is likely to lead to another 7%-8% decline. The Sensex already seems to be leading the way.</p>

The choppy Indian stock indices are looking more vulnerable by the day. Nifty is now trading below key levels which, if it sustains, is likely to lead to another 7%-8% decline. The Sensex already seems to be leading the way.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 September 2021 and the announcement of the changes will be made four weeks prior to the effective date.</p><p>More than a third of the way through the review period that runs from February to July, we see one possible change to the index with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a>. There could be more changes if some large stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> are included in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> does not make the cut for index inclusion following the 10% reduction in its free float following the open offer.</p><p>Passive funds benchmarked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> will need to trade around 3 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a>. Plus there will be flow from active funds and from cash and carry baskets on the index.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> trades at a valuation premium to its regional peers, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a> trades at a discount to its domestic peers.</p><p>The big event to watch for is the potential inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> in the F&amp;O segment that will open the door for index inclusion.</p>

The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 September 2021 and the announcement of the changes will be made four weeks prior to the effective date.More than a third of the way through the review period that runs from February to July, we see one possible change to the index with Info Edge India (INFOE IN) replacing Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN). There could be more changes if some large stocks like Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) are included in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) does not make the cut for index inclusion following the 10% reduction in its free float following the open offer.Passive funds benchmarked to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) will need to trade around 3 days of ADV on Info Edge India (INFOE IN) and Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN). Plus there will be flow from active funds and from cash and carry baskets on the index.Info Edge India (INFOE IN) trades at a valuation premium to its regional peers, while Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN) trades at a discount to its domestic peers.The big event to watch for is the potential inclusion of Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) in the F&amp;O segment that will open the door for index inclusion.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Info Edge Could Replace IOC

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Technical Analysis

<div>Base case remains to buy risk on dips in our core long group in Asia and will then measure new highs toward rising wedge resistance targets as exhaustive patterns mature and set up an excellent short after mid April.</div><div></div><div>Korea displays the best near term bull breakout potential.</div><div></div><div>Taiwan shows better energy off of trendline support but at the topside of the wedge will shift to a macro short. NDX rally stall will play into Taiwan in late April.</div><div></div><div>India needs ignition off of critical wedge support to gain bull traction. Bank index pivot.</div><div></div><div>Japan's timid recovery amid weaker undercurrents is in our crosshairs as a macro short set up.</div><div></div><div>HK is a tactical fade/short but on the next low attempt will shift into the laggard bull camp.</div>

Base case remains to buy risk on dips in our core long group in Asia and will then measure new highs toward rising wedge resistance targets as exhaustive patterns mature and set up an excellent short after mid April.Korea displays the best near term bull breakout potential.Taiwan shows better energy off of trendline support but at the topside of the wedge will shift to a macro short. NDX rally stall will play into Taiwan in late April.India needs ignition off of critical wedge support to gain bull traction. Bank index pivot.Japan's timid recovery amid weaker undercurrents is in our crosshairs as a macro short set up.HK is a tactical fade/short but on the next low attempt will shift into the laggard bull camp.

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>A discussion at the end of this week on Singapore’s <em>Money FM</em> rounds up some thoughts on FX and other financial markets.</p><p>Below is an elaboration of some points made on the US, Europe, China, Commodities, Bonds, and India as well as a link to the radio interview.</p>

A discussion at the end of this week on Singapore’s Money FM rounds up some thoughts on FX and other financial markets.Below is an elaboration of some points made on the US, Europe, China, Commodities, Bonds, and India as well as a link to the radio interview.

<p>The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has commenced a market consultation on changing the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a>, SET100 and SETHD indices to free float market cap weighted indices from the upcoming rebalance in June.</p><p>The market consultation document is short on detail, but the main points are the change in index calculation from full market cap weighted to free float market cap weighted, implementation of the changes in two tranches at the June and December reviews, and implementation of quarterly changes in free float for moves of +/-5%.</p><p>The biggest uncertainty for us is whether the selection of the stocks for inclusion/exclusion will use the full market cap or the free float market cap.</p><p>Using the full market cap for stock selection could see 3 changes at the upcoming June review, while using free float market cap for stock selection could result in up to 6 changes at the review. The two step implementation of the free float changes will dampen the index turnover but it will still be relatively high, ranging from a one-way turnover of 7.8% for changes in free float only to 9.52% if the stock selection methodology uses free float market cap.</p><p>In this Insight, we look at the proposed changes and enumerate three scenarios, the changes they will entail, the impact on the stocks and the turnover for each scenario.</p>

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has commenced a market consultation on changing the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX), SET100 and SETHD indices to free float market cap weighted indices from the upcoming rebalance in June.The market consultation document is short on detail, but the main points are the change in index calculation from full market cap weighted to free float market cap weighted, implementation of the changes in two tranches at the June and December reviews, and implementation of quarterly changes in free float for moves of +/-5%.The biggest uncertainty for us is whether the selection of the stocks for inclusion/exclusion will use the full market cap or the free float market cap.Using the full market cap for stock selection could see 3 changes at the upcoming June review, while using free float market cap for stock selection could result in up to 6 changes at the review. The two step implementation of the free float changes will dampen the index turnover but it will still be relatively high, ranging from a one-way turnover of 7.8% for changes in free float only to 9.52% if the stock selection methodology uses free float market cap.In this Insight, we look at the proposed changes and enumerate three scenarios, the changes they will entail, the impact on the stocks and the turnover for each scenario.

SET50 Index - Proposed Methodology Changes: Scenarios, Names Affected & Impact

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

Mum'bye' Nifty?

India's Nifty and Sensex Indices continue to make lower lows. It is time to look at where the downside targets could be. These charts suggest they...

Shyam Devani

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Info Edge Could Replace IOC

We see one potential changes to the NIFTY50 index at the September review. Adani Green and Avenue Supermarts could join the index if listed F&O are...

Brian Freitas

Asia Top Long/Short Bets for April

Base case remains to buy risk on dips in our core long group in Asia. Measure new highs near rising wedge targets as exhaustive patterns mature and...

Thomas Schroeder

FX Summary Discussion at End of Q1

A summary radio discussion on foreign exchange and other financial markets as we approach Q2. Topics include the US, Europe, China, Oil, Bonds, and...

Shyam Devani

SET50 Index - Proposed Methodology Changes: Scenarios, Names Affected & Impact

The SET has commenced a market consultation on the proposed changes to make its indices free float market cap weighted. We look at the impact on...

Brian Freitas