Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A news report has indicated that SEBI is looking to tighten criteria used for inclusion and continued availability of stocks in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.</li>
<li>Our analysis shows 30 stocks could be deleted from the F&amp;O segment while another 12 are close to deletion zone. If applied objectively, 22 stocks could be added to F&amp;O.</li>
<li>Deletion from the F&amp;O segment could see two stocks dropped from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a> while inclusion in F&amp;O could see two stocks added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


A news report has indicated that SEBI is looking to tighten criteria used for inclusion and continued availability of stocks in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.
Our analysis shows 30 stocks could be deleted from the F&amp;O segment while another 12 are close to deletion zone. If applied objectively, 22 stocks could be added to F&amp;O.
Deletion from the F&amp;O segment could see two stocks dropped from the Nifty Next 50 Index while inclusion in F&amp;O could see two stocks added to the NIFTY Index.


Impact of Potential Changes to India F&O Eligibility Criteria

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india-lic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (LICI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-power-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15618:1" rel="noopener">Tata Power (TPWR IN)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nmdc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2016:1" rel="noopener">Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/piramal-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14158:1" rel="noopener">Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN)</a> at the close on 5 August.</li>
<li>In September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-wilmar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34763:1" rel="noopener">Adani Wilmar (AWLTD IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-railway-catering-and-tourism-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33951:1" rel="noopener">Indian Railway Catering and Tourism (IRCTC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics (BHE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-aeronautics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26747:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HNAL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphasis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7672:1" rel="noopener">Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN)</a> are potential inclusions.</li>
<li>At over 4 days of deliverable volume to trade, the impact is especially large on  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics (BHE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-lifesciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12914:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lupin-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17910:1" rel="noopener">Lupin Ltd (LPC IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (LICI IN) and Tata Power (TPWR IN) will replace Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN) and Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) at the close on 5 August.
In September, Adani Wilmar (AWLTD IN), Indian Railway Catering and Tourism (IRCTC IN), Bharat Electronics (BHE IN), Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HNAL IN) and Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) are potential inclusions.
At over 4 days of deliverable volume to trade, the impact is especially large on  Bharat Electronics (BHE IN), Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) and Lupin Ltd (LPC IN). 


NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in August, Then 5 More in September

<ul>
<li>With over 90% of the review period complete, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> is a high probability inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> and will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shree-cement-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10531:1" rel="noopener">Shree Cement (SRCM IN)</a>. </li>
<li>We estimate passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> trackers will need to buy nearly 7% of the real float on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a> and the stock should continue to outperform. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-transmission-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26712:1" rel="noopener">Adani Transmission (ADANIT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART)</a> have higher average free float market caps and could be included if added to the F&amp;O segment.</li>
</ul>


With over 90% of the review period complete, Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) is a high probability inclusion to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and will replace Shree Cement (SRCM IN). 
We estimate passive NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) trackers will need to buy nearly 7% of the real float on Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) and the stock should continue to outperform. 

Adani Green Energy (ADANIGR), Adani Transmission (ADANIT) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART) have higher average free float market caps and could be included if added to the F&amp;O segment.


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Should Replace Shree Cement

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Nifty short bet from 16,750 is panning out. Gap lower and downside impulse calls for further weakness.</li>
<li>India remains vulnerable to spill over from the global cycle after holding up over recent months. Any break below lower wedge line support would be a bigger negative structurally.</li>
<li>Watch for bounce just under 15k near lower wedge support w RSI near 25. 15,800 fresh sell resistance stands out.</li>
</ul>


Nifty short bet from 16,750 is panning out. Gap lower and downside impulse calls for further weakness.
India remains vulnerable to spill over from the global cycle after holding up over recent months. Any break below lower wedge line support would be a bigger negative structurally.
Watch for bounce just under 15k near lower wedge support w RSI near 25. 15,800 fresh sell resistance stands out.


<ul>
<li>India is a market (like Taiwan) that faces a shakeout into summer turbulence after holding the top end of the range since late 2021 albeit amid a drifting decline.</li>
<li>Nifty met the gap resistance to test the short side with a higher conviction sell zone closer to that 17k of support (now pivotal resistance).</li>
<li>USD/INR bull triangle maturing and did not blink during the USD pullback in Asia. 76.50/70 buy support if we do get a dip.</li>
</ul>


India is a market (like Taiwan) that faces a shakeout into summer turbulence after holding the top end of the range since late 2021 albeit amid a drifting decline.
Nifty met the gap resistance to test the short side with a higher conviction sell zone closer to that 17k of support (now pivotal resistance).
USD/INR bull triangle maturing and did not blink during the USD pullback in Asia. 76.50/70 buy support if we do get a dip.


India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

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NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in August, Then 5 More in September

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NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Should Replace Shree Cement

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India near Support and Bear Targets

Nifty short bet from 16,750 is panning out. Gap lower and downside impulse calls for further weakness. Near support for a bounce near 14,700 with...

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Nifty Sub 17k Barrier Short Zone

India is a market (like Taiwan) that faces a shakeout into summer turbulence after holding the top end of the range since late 2021 albeit amid a...

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