Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>IVs have moved to new lows for the summer, breaking below the floor set through June &amp; July. Nifty50 IVs now trading at 11.0% levels.</li>
<li>Spectacular turnaround in IVs since early-August vol-spike. In spite of this, Vol Regime remains steady in its "High &amp; Down" vol-state.  </li>
<li>Nifty50 Vol surface characteristics have compressed for Monthly-expiry contracts. Smile &amp; Skew for Quarterly contracts remain unchanged.</li>
</ul>


IVs have moved to new lows for the summer, breaking below the floor set through June &amp; July. Nifty50 IVs now trading at 11.0% levels.
Spectacular turnaround in IVs since early-August vol-spike. In spite of this, Vol Regime remains steady in its "High &amp; Down" vol-state.  
Nifty50 Vol surface characteristics have compressed for Monthly-expiry contracts. Smile &amp; Skew for Quarterly contracts remain unchanged.


EQD / NSE Vol Update / Smile & Skew Compress as Vols Trade to New Summer Lows

<ul>
<li>IVs Spike with Election Results release on 04-June-2024. Post event there's a risk of large IV-crush regardless of the result.</li>
<li>Current Vol-state is "High &amp; Up". Wait for the switch to "High &amp; Down" before initiating new risk-premia harvesting strategies</li>
<li>Weekly IVs have received large markups due to elections. Entire Vol Curve is now in Backwardation -  curve inversion at extreme levels</li>
</ul>


IVs Spike with Election Results release on 04-June-2024. Post event there's a risk of large IV-crush regardless of the result.
Current Vol-state is "High &amp; Up". Wait for the switch to "High &amp; Down" before initiating new risk-premia harvesting strategies
Weekly IVs have received large markups due to elections. Entire Vol Curve is now in Backwardation -  curve inversion at extreme levels


EQD / Weekly Vol Update / IVs Spike with Election Results Round the Corner

<ul>
<li>Risk premia higher early in the week as Local Markets are disappointed with MSCI decision regarding HDFC Bank. IVs get marked up across the board.</li>
<li>Positive Global Macro data bolsters Equity Markets later in the week. IVs trade lower. Smile &amp; Skew characteristics compress as well and Vol Term-structure flattened out.    </li>
<li>Vol Regime Model retains "High &amp; Down" state. Short Iron Condor/ Short Iron Butterfly type structures recommended to align with the current volatility environment.</li>
</ul>


Risk premia higher early in the week as Local Markets are disappointed with MSCI decision regarding HDFC Bank. IVs get marked up across the board.
Positive Global Macro data bolsters Equity Markets later in the week. IVs trade lower. Smile &amp; Skew characteristics compress as well and Vol Term-structure flattened out.    
Vol Regime Model retains "High &amp; Down" state. Short Iron Condor/ Short Iron Butterfly type structures recommended to align with the current volatility environment.


EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Oscillate  - Reacting First To MSCI-HDFC News & Later to U.S. Inflation

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>India is experiencing a slowdown in capital expenditure (capex), both in the government and private sectors. This slowdown, largely attributed to the general elections in the Q1 of FY25.</li>
<li>The central government has set an ambitious target of 50.5% capex growth in the second half of FY25 to compensate for the sluggish first half.</li>
<li>The capex slowdown has resulted in reduced investment in crucial infrastructure projects, impacting key sectors such as defense, roads, and railways.</li>
</ul>


India is experiencing a slowdown in capital expenditure (capex), both in the government and private sectors. This slowdown, largely attributed to the general elections in the Q1 of FY25.
The central government has set an ambitious target of 50.5% capex growth in the second half of FY25 to compensate for the sluggish first half.
The capex slowdown has resulted in reduced investment in crucial infrastructure projects, impacting key sectors such as defense, roads, and railways.


Thematic Report: India's Capex Growth Ambitions Vs. Reality

<ul>
<li>IVs move higher in a controlled manner relative to U.S. markets. Combination of technical factors put a dampener on the Options Markets &amp; IV turn lower by Week's end.</li>
<li>Many determining factors underwent changes in Vol-Regime Model  - but threshold to switch out of "High &amp; Down" state not achieved.</li>
<li>Smile &amp; Skew characteristics blow out significantly on the open but settle at lower levels by week's close.</li>
</ul>


IVs move higher in a controlled manner relative to U.S. markets. Combination of technical factors put a dampener on the Options Markets &amp; IV turn lower by Week's end.
Many determining factors underwent changes in Vol-Regime Model  - but threshold to switch out of "High &amp; Down" state not achieved.
Smile &amp; Skew characteristics blow out significantly on the open but settle at lower levels by week's close.


EQD / NSE Vol Update / Controlled Detonation in Vols - Initial Jump Followed by Calmer Levels

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Smile & Skew Compress as Vols Trade to New Summer Lows

Nifty50 IVs hit new summer lows at 11.0%, despite early-August spike. Volatility regime remains steady in "High & Down" state. Smile/ Skew...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / Weekly Vol Update / IVs Spike with Election Results Round the Corner

Vols spiking! Risk of IV-crush post elections. Wait for Vol regime switch to "High & Down" to initiate new short Gamma positions. Vol Curve...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Oscillate - Reacting First To MSCI-HDFC News & Later to U.S. Inflation

IVs react to negative news w.r.t. MSCI-HDFC decision & later to positive Global Macro data. Eventually IVs close lower on Weekly basis. Volatility...

AceGama Advisors

Thematic Report: India's Capex Growth Ambitions Vs. Reality

India's capital expenditure is slowing down due to elections, prompting the government to aim for 50.5% growth in the second half of FY25 to make...

Nimish Maheshwari

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Controlled Detonation in Vols - Initial Jump Followed by Calmer Levels

MSCI's decides to split HDFC Bank's re-weighting between August & November 2024. HDFC Bank down -3.5% as a result, dragging BankNifty & Nifty50...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Smile & Skew Compress as Vols Trade to New Summer Lows

​Nifty50 IVs hit new summer lows at 11.0%, despite early-August spike. Volatility regime remains steady in "High & Down" state. Smile/ Skew...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / Weekly Vol Update / IVs Spike with Election Results Round the Corner

​Vols spiking! Risk of IV-crush post elections. Wait for Vol regime switch to "High & Down" to initiate new short Gamma positions. Vol Curve...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Oscillate - Reacting First To MSCI-HDFC News & Later to U.S. Inflation

​IVs react to negative news w.r.t. MSCI-HDFC decision & later to positive Global Macro data. Eventually IVs close lower on Weekly basis. Volatility...

AceGama Advisors

Thematic Report: India's Capex Growth Ambitions Vs. Reality

​India's capital expenditure is slowing down due to elections, prompting the government to aim for 50.5% growth in the second half of FY25 to make...

Nimish Maheshwari

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Controlled Detonation in Vols - Initial Jump Followed by Calmer Levels

MSCI's decides to split HDFC Bank's re-weighting between August & November 2024. HDFC Bank down -3.5% as a result, dragging BankNifty & Nifty50...

AceGama Advisors

Nifty50 IVs hit new summer lows at 11.0%, despite early-August spike. Volatility regime remains steady in "High & Down" state. Smile/ Skew...

Vols spiking! Risk of IV-crush post elections. Wait for Vol regime switch to "High & Down" to initiate new short Gamma positions. Vol Curve...

IVs react to negative news w.r.t. MSCI-HDFC decision & later to positive Global Macro data. Eventually IVs close lower on Weekly basis. Volatility...

India's capital expenditure is slowing down due to elections, prompting the government to aim for 50.5% growth in the second half of FY25 to make...