Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng has announced the conclusions of the market consultation. Primary-listed foreign stocks will be eligible for inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH INDEX</a> from the December rebalance.</li>
<li>The coming week has the rebalances for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">SENSEX Index</a> as a result of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> merger.</li>
<li>There were inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)</a> and outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK)</a> during the week.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng has announced the conclusions of the market consultation. Primary-listed foreign stocks will be eligible for inclusion in the HSI INDEX and HSTECH INDEX from the December rebalance.
The coming week has the rebalances for the NIFTY Index, Nifty Next 50 Index, Nifty Bank Index and SENSEX Index as a result of the HDFC Limited/ HDFC Bank merger.
There were inflows to Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) and outflows from Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK) during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCI, HSCEI, HSI, CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, HDFC Bank, Sensex

<ul>
<li>Following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a>'s delisting, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)</a> at the close on 12 July.</li>
<li>The change was largely expected, but passive trackers need to buy over 5 days of ADV and nearly 12 days of delivery volume of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> .</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> delisting could help <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> in avoiding deletion from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)</a> in December.</li>
</ul>


Following HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)'s delisting, JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) will be added to the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY) at the close on 12 July.
The change was largely expected, but passive trackers need to buy over 5 days of ADV and nearly 12 days of delivery volume of JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) .
The HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) delisting could help Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) in avoiding deletion from the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY) in December.


SENSEX Ad Hoc Rebalance: JSW Steel Replaces HDFC

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> will stop trading at the close on 12 July and will be deleted from all indices at the close on that day.</li>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ltimindtree-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22778:1" rel="noopener">LTIMindtree (LTIM IN)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index</a>.</li>
<li>Importantly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a>'s foreign shareholding has dropped over the quarter ended 30 June and that has index implications for future passive flows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>



HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) will stop trading at the close on 12 July and will be deleted from all indices at the close on that day.
As expected, LTIMindtree (LTIM IN) will be added to the NIFTY Index while Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN) will be added to the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index.
Importantly, HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)'s foreign shareholding has dropped over the quarter ended 30 June and that has index implications for future passive flows to HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN). 


HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger: Foreigners Sell HDFC; LTIM in NIFTY; JSP in NEXT50

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New HDFC Bank appears to have far better returns and credit metrics that large Asian peers</li>
<li>Pro-Forma amalgamation puts HDFC Bank as 2nd largest bank in Asia Pacific in market cap </li>
<li>Comparably large banks in Asia are concentrated in China, where credit metrics are opaque</li>
</ul>


New HDFC Bank appears to have far better returns and credit metrics that large Asian peers
Pro-Forma amalgamation puts HDFC Bank as 2nd largest bank in Asia Pacific in market cap 
Comparably large banks in Asia are concentrated in China, where credit metrics are opaque


HDFC Bank - Ranks 2nd After Merger Compared With Asia Pacific Banks

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Rise into late June/early July cycle peak on track with scope to overshoot after the 4th of July break (then expect a more volatile mid-July period). Reducing on strength.</li>
<li>SPX kissed our 4,500 target with an overshoot projection at 4,547. Recent long from 4,470.</li>
<li>Top Asia longs: NKY, Taiwan and India. Top shorts have been HSI and Kospi 200 (heavy bias to add on upticks). July will usher in a more volatile phase.</li>
</ul>


Rise into late June/early July cycle peak on track with scope to overshoot after the 4th of July break (then expect a more volatile mid-July period). Reducing on strength.
SPX kissed our 4,500 target with an overshoot projection at 4,547. Recent long from 4,470.
Top Asia longs: NKY, Taiwan and India. Top shorts have been HSI and Kospi 200 (heavy bias to add on upticks). July will usher in a more volatile phase.


India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCI, HSCEI, HSI, CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, HDFC Bank, Sensex

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

SENSEX Ad Hoc Rebalance: JSW Steel Replaces HDFC

JSW Steel (JSTL) replaces HDFC in the SENSEX at the close on 12 July. There will be pre-positions on JSTL but the stock could move higher on the...

Brian Freitas

HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger: Foreigners Sell HDFC; LTIM in NIFTY; JSP in NEXT50

LTIM will be added to the NIFTY50 while JSP will be added to the NEXT50. Foreign shareholding on HDFC has dropped in the last quarter and proforma...

Brian Freitas

HDFC Bank - Ranks 2nd After Merger Compared With Asia Pacific Banks

The merger is now done, and this is more relevant, highlighting now large HDFC Bank is now in Asia Pacific, not only in India.

Daniel Tabbush

Long/Short Position Under Currents

Rise into late June/early July cycle peak on track with scope to overshoot after the 4th of July break (then expect a more volatile mid-July...

Thomas Schroeder