Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We visit the small, sandy town of Phalodi known for its betting market known as "Satta Bazaar". </li>
<li>The people of Phalodi bet on anything and have been known for making accurate predictions about major events like the Elections. </li>
<li>The pundits anticipate more traction in terms of their seat estimates starting from April 10th, 2024. The tentative estimates currently stand at 330-340 seats for the BJP.</li>
</ul>


We visit the small, sandy town of Phalodi known for its betting market known as "Satta Bazaar". 
The people of Phalodi bet on anything and have been known for making accurate predictions about major events like the Elections. 
The pundits anticipate more traction in terms of their seat estimates starting from April 10th, 2024. The tentative estimates currently stand at 330-340 seats for the BJP.


Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Market regulator intervenes to curb excess leverage in equity markets. IVs recover from last week's selloff but bound by 12-16% range. </li>
<li>Vol Regime Model clearly signals "High &amp; Down" state, projecting a slow grind lower for IVs</li>
<li>Shape of the vol surface is indicative of a market well positioned to handle corrections </li>
</ul>


Market regulator intervenes to curb excess leverage in equity markets. IVs recover from last week's selloff but bound by 12-16% range. 
Vol Regime Model clearly signals "High &amp; Down" state, projecting a slow grind lower for IVs
Shape of the vol surface is indicative of a market well positioned to handle corrections 


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 11-Mar-24 to 15-Mar-24

<ul>
<li>New ATHs again in NIFTY50! But IVs move significantly lower! Holiday shortened week ahead.</li>
<li>Vol Regime Model shifts clearly to "High &amp; Down" state. Wait-and-see approach warranted on account of 3-day weekend. </li>
<li>As of 01-Mar-2024 Weekly &amp; Monthly BankNifty options will expire on Wednesdays.  </li>
</ul>


New ATHs again in NIFTY50! But IVs move significantly lower! Holiday shortened week ahead.
Vol Regime Model shifts clearly to "High &amp; Down" state. Wait-and-see approach warranted on account of 3-day weekend. 
As of 01-Mar-2024 Weekly &amp; Monthly BankNifty options will expire on Wednesdays.  


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 04-Mar-24 to 08-Mar-24

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/british-american-tobacco-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21828:1" rel="noopener">British American Tobacco (BATS LN)</a> owns 29.03% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:327:1" rel="noopener">ITC Ltd (ITC IN)</a> and could sell a portion of its stake. But BAT will hold at least 25% of the company.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/british-american-tobacco-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21828:1" rel="noopener">British American Tobacco (BATS LN)</a> paring its stake could also lead to SUUTI gradually reducing its own holding in the company.</li>
<li>Any stake sales would not result in buying from global passive trackers while there will be small buying from local index trackers. Increased float could pressure the stock.</li>
</ul>



British American Tobacco (BATS LN) owns 29.03% of ITC Ltd (ITC IN) and could sell a portion of its stake. But BAT will hold at least 25% of the company.

British American Tobacco (BATS LN) paring its stake could also lead to SUUTI gradually reducing its own holding in the company.
Any stake sales would not result in buying from global passive trackers while there will be small buying from local index trackers. Increased float could pressure the stock.


ITC Ltd (ITC IN): Impact of BAT's Potential Stake Sale

<ul>
<li>Put-Call Ratio back at 1.30. Put-buying interest returns as Nifty50 scales new All-time-Highs</li>
<li>Nifty50 Vol curve starts the week in Backwardation &amp; moves into Contango as Weekly IVs dip. BankNifty Vol curve showing a kinked shape.</li>
<li>Vol Curve has unwound the skew/smile compression built up over prior weeks</li>
</ul>


Put-Call Ratio back at 1.30. Put-buying interest returns as Nifty50 scales new All-time-Highs
Nifty50 Vol curve starts the week in Backwardation &amp; moves into Contango as Weekly IVs dip. BankNifty Vol curve showing a kinked shape.
Vol Curve has unwound the skew/smile compression built up over prior weeks


EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 26-Feb-24 to 01-Mar-24

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

India Elections | Pandits from Phalodi

Phalodi's Satta Bazaar in focus for accurate predictions, with BJP expected to win 330-340 seats in upcoming elections.

Pranav Bhavsar

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 11-Mar-24 to 15-Mar-24

IVs rebound but remain constrained within a 12-16% range. Volatility Regime Model predicts a gradual decline in IVs. Volatility surface suggests...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 04-Mar-24 to 08-Mar-24

NIFTY50 hits new highs as IVs continue to drop. Potential change in Vol Regime. But caution advised due to holiday-shortened week. BankNifty...

AceGama Advisors

ITC Ltd (ITC IN): Impact of BAT's Potential Stake Sale

Multiple media outlets reporting that British American Tobacco are looking at selling part of their stake in ITC as early as this week. The reports...

Brian Freitas

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 26-Feb-24 to 01-Mar-24

Put-buying interest returns as Nifty50 hits new highs. Volatility curves oscillate between backwardation & contango. BankNifty vol curve exhibits...

AceGama Advisors

India Elections | Pandits from Phalodi

​Phalodi's Satta Bazaar in focus for accurate predictions, with BJP expected to win 330-340 seats in upcoming elections.

Pranav Bhavsar

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 11-Mar-24 to 15-Mar-24

IVs rebound but remain constrained within a 12-16% range. Volatility Regime Model predicts a gradual decline in IVs. Volatility surface suggests...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 04-Mar-24 to 08-Mar-24

​NIFTY50 hits new highs as IVs continue to drop. Potential change in Vol Regime. But caution advised due to holiday-shortened week. BankNifty...

AceGama Advisors

ITC Ltd (ITC IN): Impact of BAT's Potential Stake Sale

Multiple media outlets reporting that British American Tobacco are looking at selling part of their stake in ITC as early as this week. The reports...

Brian Freitas

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 26-Feb-24 to 01-Mar-24

​Put-buying interest returns as Nifty50 hits new highs. Volatility curves oscillate between backwardation & contango. BankNifty vol curve exhibits...

AceGama Advisors

Phalodi's Satta Bazaar in focus for accurate predictions, with BJP expected to win 330-340 seats in upcoming elections.

NIFTY50 hits new highs as IVs continue to drop. Potential change in Vol Regime. But caution advised due to holiday-shortened week. BankNifty...

Put-buying interest returns as Nifty50 hits new highs. Volatility curves oscillate between backwardation & contango. BankNifty vol curve exhibits...