Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With 3 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in September.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 18% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 55bn (US$660m). 9 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>All the deletes are F&amp;O members while most adds are not. NSE Indices may have to revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.</li>
</ul>


With 3 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 18% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 55bn (US$660m). 9 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
All the deletes are F&amp;O members while most adds are not. NSE Indices may have to revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes as Non-F&O Stocks Replace F&O Members

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearly complete, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> should replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> in September.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy over 2 days of ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> while selling over 1 day of ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a>.</li>
<li>There is a strong possibility of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> being deleted from a global index in August and that could put the stock under even more pressure.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearly complete, Canara Bank (CBK IN) should replace Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) in the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) in September.
Passive trackers will need to buy over 2 days of ADV in Canara Bank (CBK IN) while selling over 1 day of ADV in Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN).
There is a strong possibility of Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) being deleted from a global index in August and that could put the stock under even more pressure.


NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Bandhan Bank Facing Double Deletion

Head of Trading/ Partner, AceGama Advisors

Sankalp Singh

Head of Trading/ Partner

Proprietary Trading Desk

AceGama Advisors

Trading desk specializing in the Listed & OTC options strategies for risk management & investment purposes.

<ul>
<li>Weekly IVs marked significantly higher. Options demand returns post holiday-shortened week. Market focuses on 23.07.2024 Budget &amp; Corporate Earnings announcements. </li>
<li>Put-Call Ratio compression + Rising IVs indicative of call-buying activity. Significant Open-Interest buildup seen in 25000 calls.</li>
<li>Vol Term-structure: Entire curve in Backwardation. Much of which can be attributed to the India Budget event. Curve expected to flatten out post event.</li>
</ul>


Weekly IVs marked significantly higher. Options demand returns post holiday-shortened week. Market focuses on 23.07.2024 Budget &amp; Corporate Earnings announcements. 
Put-Call Ratio compression + Rising IVs indicative of call-buying activity. Significant Open-Interest buildup seen in 25000 calls.
Vol Term-structure: Entire curve in Backwardation. Much of which can be attributed to the India Budget event. Curve expected to flatten out post event.


EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Marked Higher & Vol Curve Inverts ... Its All About the Budget

<ul>
<li>IVs for Monthly &amp; Quarterly contracts rose as options market baked in additional risk premia for the Budget Announcement. </li>
<li>Vega bid &amp; Gamma offered  - Monthly IVs higher by +2.3 vols &amp; Weekly IVs lower by -0.5 vols.  Short-Dated IVs closed lower in spite of upcoming earnings events </li>
<li>Term structure is trading with a kinked shape, with Monthly IVs trading at a markup to rest of the curve</li>
</ul>


IVs for Monthly &amp; Quarterly contracts rose as options market baked in additional risk premia for the Budget Announcement. 
Vega bid &amp; Gamma offered  - Monthly IVs higher by +2.3 vols &amp; Weekly IVs lower by -0.5 vols.  Short-Dated IVs closed lower in spite of upcoming earnings events 
Term structure is trading with a kinked shape, with Monthly IVs trading at a markup to rest of the curve


EQD / NSE Vol Update / Vega Was Bid & Gamma Was Offered

<ul>
<li>Regular Spot-Vol Correlations reasserted - Implied Volatilities (IVs) traded lower as Equity Markets continued making new Highs.</li>
<li>As expected, Vol-Regime Switching Model is stuck in "High &amp; Down" state. IVs projected to grind lower over an elongated period.      </li>
<li>Changes in Vol term-structure + Skew/ Smile compression - indicative of reduced risk-premia for July-end India Budget event.</li>
</ul>


Regular Spot-Vol Correlations reasserted - Implied Volatilities (IVs) traded lower as Equity Markets continued making new Highs.
As expected, Vol-Regime Switching Model is stuck in "High &amp; Down" state. IVs projected to grind lower over an elongated period.      
Changes in Vol term-structure + Skew/ Smile compression - indicative of reduced risk-premia for July-end India Budget event.


EQD / NSE Vol Update / Regular Correlations Take Hold - Vols Drop as Market Soars

India

Nifty Bank Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of the most liquid and large capitalized Indian Banking stocks. The index will have 12 stocks from the banking sector, which trade on the National Stock Exchange. The index was developed with a base value of 1000 as of January 1, 2000.

NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY)

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes as Non-F&O Stocks Replace F&O Members

There could be 7 changes for the Nifty Next 50. The addition of non-FnO stocks and deletion of FnO stocks raises index replication issues. Expect...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Bandhan Bank Facing Double Deletion

Canara Bank is a high probability add and Bandhan Bank is a high probability delete for the CNXBANK index. Bandhan could also be deleted from a...

Brian Freitas

EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Marked Higher & Vol Curve Inverts ... Its All About the Budget

The 23.07.2024 Budget announcement was pegged to be a large event-risk. The event has now taken place , & has had a marked impact on the Options...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Vega Was Bid & Gamma Was Offered

IVs rise as additional risk premia gets baked in for Budget Announcement. Kinked-shaped term structure with Monthly IVs trading at a markup to rest...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Regular Correlations Take Hold - Vols Drop as Market Soars

IVs trade lower as equity markets reach new highs. Vol Regime Model projects continued IV decline. Vol Surface characteristics imply reduced risk...

AceGama Advisors

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes as Non-F&O Stocks Replace F&O Members

There could be 7 changes for the Nifty Next 50. The addition of non-FnO stocks and deletion of FnO stocks raises index replication issues. Expect...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Bandhan Bank Facing Double Deletion

Canara Bank is a high probability add and Bandhan Bank is a high probability delete for the CNXBANK index. Bandhan could also be deleted from a...

Brian Freitas

EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Marked Higher & Vol Curve Inverts ... Its All About the Budget

The 23.07.2024 Budget announcement was pegged to be a large event-risk. The event has now taken place , & has had a marked impact on the Options...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Vega Was Bid & Gamma Was Offered

IVs rise as additional risk premia gets baked in for Budget Announcement. Kinked-shaped term structure with Monthly IVs trading at a markup to rest...

AceGama Advisors

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Regular Correlations Take Hold - Vols Drop as Market Soars

​IVs trade lower as equity markets reach new highs. Vol Regime Model projects continued IV decline. Vol Surface characteristics imply reduced risk...

AceGama Advisors

IVs trade lower as equity markets reach new highs. Vol Regime Model projects continued IV decline. Vol Surface characteristics imply reduced risk...