Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>In this insight, we discuss the 9 major risks (excluding valuation issues) for Krafton.</strong> Overall, we believe these significant risk factors could result in much lower than expected demand for the Krafton IPO shares, especially among the institutional investors unless the IPO price range is lowered significantly. </p></div><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>1) Too much dependent on one game PUBG</strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>2) Krafton's big political risk with China (<em>Game for Peace)</em></strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>3) Political risks of operating PUBG in overseas countries such as India  </strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>4) Company's sales growth in 2020 helped by COVID-19</strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>5) Declining sales and profit growth in 1Q 2021</strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>6) Comparable companies' worsening sales and profit trend in 1Q 2021</strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>7) Potential acquisitions may not add value</strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>8) Expansion into other entertainment related business may involve execution risks</strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>9) Insiders are selling too much in this IPO </strong></p>

In this insight, we discuss the 9 major risks (excluding valuation issues) for Krafton. Overall, we believe these significant risk factors could result in much lower than expected demand for the Krafton IPO shares, especially among the institutional investors unless the IPO price range is lowered significantly. 1) Too much dependent on one game PUBG2) Krafton's big political risk with China (Game for Peace)3) Political risks of operating PUBG in overseas countries such as India  4) Company's sales growth in 2020 helped by COVID-195) Declining sales and profit growth in 1Q 20216) Comparable companies' worsening sales and profit trend in 1Q 20217) Potential acquisitions may not add value8) Expansion into other entertainment related business may involve execution risks9) Insiders are selling too much in this IPO 

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<p>As soon as Krafton submitted its IPO book, it sparked a valuation controversy. Krafton's revenue is still unusually dependent on a single game, PUBG (PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds). However, even PUBG, which accounts for a significant portion of sales, has markedly slowed its sales growth. Nevertheless, Krafton unreasonably set a high IPO price. The atmosphere of the local street is clear. This level of public offering price is difficult to accept in the market.</p><p>So, the below DETAIL section details several talking points causing the current valuation controversy.</p>

As soon as Krafton submitted its IPO book, it sparked a valuation controversy. Krafton's revenue is still unusually dependent on a single game, PUBG (PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds). However, even PUBG, which accounts for a significant portion of sales, has markedly slowed its sales growth. Nevertheless, Krafton unreasonably set a high IPO price. The atmosphere of the local street is clear. This level of public offering price is difficult to accept in the market.So, the below DETAIL section details several talking points causing the current valuation controversy.

Several Controversial Issues About Krafton IPO Valuation

<h2>Offering size</h2><p>Krafton, one of the hottest IPOs of the year, has released its IPO book. Krafton is a Korean game developer established in March 2007. It offers 10.06M shares, representing <strong>23.25% of the total shares</strong>, of which 55~75% will be institutional allocation.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Offering size"}'>Offering size</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"TBA"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[1]C[0]">TBA</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Bourse"}'>Bourse</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"KOSPI"}'>KOSPI</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Pre-IPO SO"}'><strong>Pre-IPO SO</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":43274070}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[1]C[0]"><strong>43,274,070</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Offering"}'><strong>Offering</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":10060230}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[3]C[0]"><strong>10,060,230</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"- % of SO"}'><strong>- % of SO</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.23247709309524156}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[5]C[0]"><strong>23.25%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"- Institutional allotment"}'>- Institutional allotment</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"55.00~75.00%"}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[5]C[0]">55.00~75.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><h2>Split</h2><p>This is a split offering at a ratio of 69.88% (primary) and 30.12% (secondary). As a result, this offering will see a capital increase rate of 16.25%. This IPO is free of any additional option: cornerstone, clawback, or greenshoe.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Split"}'>Split</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Primary %"}'><strong>Primary %</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6987911807185323}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[3]C[0]"><strong>69.88%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Secondary %"}'><strong>Secondary %</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.3012088192814677}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[4]C[0]"><strong>30.12%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Post-IPO shares outstanding"}'>Post-IPO shares outstanding</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":53334300}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-9]C[0]+R[-8]C[0]"><span data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":50304070}' data-sheets-userformat='{"2":15041,"3":{"1":0},"9":2,"10":1,"12":0,"14":{"1":2,"2":3815996},"15":"Courier New","16":9}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-9]C[0]+Terms!R[2]C[0]">50,304,070</span></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Capital increase rate"}'><strong>Capital increase rate</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.16245294237403599}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[4]C[0]"><strong>16.25%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Dilution"}'>Dilution</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.139750123598349}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Terms!R[4]C[0]">13.98%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><h2>Schedule</h2><p>The <strong>book opens</strong> on <strong>June 28</strong> for both local and overseas and runs until July 9. The <strong>allotment</strong> will be on <strong>July 12</strong> with a final offering price. The <strong>subscription</strong> follows on June <strong>July 1</strong>4.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Schedule"}'>Schedule</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Book open"}'><strong>Book open</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44375}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>2021. 6. 28</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Book close"}'>Book close</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44386}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'>2021. 7. 9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Allotment"}'>Allotment</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44389}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'>2021. 7. 12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Subscription"}'><strong>Subscription</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44391}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>2021. 7. 14</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Payment"}'><strong>Payment</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44396}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>2021. 7. 19</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Listing"}'>Listing</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"TBA"}'>TBA</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><h2>Pricing</h2><p>The IPO book features 7 valuation peers: Walt Disney, NetEase, Activision Blizzard, Take-Two, INC Common Stock, Warner Music, NCSoft, and Netmarble. The earnings used in this valuation are the 1Q21 based annualized earnings. The average P/E multiple came at 45.20x.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PER valuation"}'>PER valuation</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Walt Disney Co"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>Walt Disney</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NetEase Inc"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>NetEase</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Activision Blizzard, Inc."}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>Activision Blizzard</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE, INC Common Stock"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>Take-Two Interactive Software</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Warner Music Group Corp"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>Warner Music Group</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NCSoft Corp"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>NCSoft</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Netmarble Corp"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>Netmarble</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Ticker"}'>Ticker</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"DIS"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='="DIS"'>DIS</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"9999"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='="9999"'>9999</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"ATVI"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='="ATVI"'>ATVI</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"TTWO"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='="TTWO"'>TTWO</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"WMG"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='="WMG"'>WMG</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"036570"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='="036570"'>036570</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"251270"}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula='="251270"'>251270</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Market cap"}'>Market cap</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":357657.17}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩357,657.2B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":84181.24}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩84,181.2B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":82893.153}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩82,893.2B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":23133.711}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩23,133.7B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":19927.275}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩19,927.3B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":18507.241}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩18,507.2B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":11627.165}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩11,627.2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Earnings"}'>Earnings</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4028.263}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩4,028.3B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3100.659}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩3,100.7B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2767.475}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩2,767.5B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":978.282}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩978.3B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":523.093}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩523.1B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":323.509}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩323.5B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":225.698}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩225.7B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"P/E"}'><strong>P/E</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":88.7869461353442}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>88.79x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":27.149467258411843}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>27.15x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":29.952629382379246}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>29.95x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":23.64728268536066}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>23.65x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":38.09509016561109}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>38.10x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":57.20780874720642}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>57.21x</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":51.51647334048153}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>51.52x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Average"}'><strong>Average</strong></td>
<td colspan="7" rowspan="1" style="text-align: center;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":45.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}'><strong>45.20x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="8" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>A 45.20x multiple to a 1Q21-based annualized earnings of ₩776.1B implies a market cap of <strong>₩35.07T</strong> for Krafton. </p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"PER valuation"}'>PER valuation</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Krafton"}'>Krafton</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1Q21 earnings"}'>1Q21 earnings</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":194.018}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'>₩194.0B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Annualized earnings"}'><strong>Annualized earnings</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":776.072}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*4"><strong>₩776.1B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"P/E"}'><strong>P/E</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":45.2}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.00x","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-6]C[0]"><strong>45.20x</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Market cap"}'><strong>Market cap</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":35073.588}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}'><strong>₩35,073.6B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Post IPO SO, incl. stock options"}'>Post-IPO SO, incl. stock options</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":51766185}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0","3":1}'>51,766,185</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Price per share"}'><strong>Price per share</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":677538.590104718}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-2]C[0]*1000000000/R[-1]C[0]"><strong>₩677,539</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p><strong>A 17.79~32.40% discount</strong> sets up an indicative price band of ₩458,000~557,000, implying a market cap of <strong>₩23.04~28.02T</strong>.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Pricing"}'>Pricing</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Low"}'>Low</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"High"}'>High</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Price"}'><strong>Price</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":458000}'><strong>₩458,000</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":557000}'><strong>₩557,000</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Base deal size"}'>Base deal size</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4607.58534}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*Terms!R8C2/1000000000">₩4,607.6B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":5603.54811}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*Terms!R8C2/1000000000">₩5,603.5B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Institutional allotment"}'>- Institutional allotment</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2534.171937}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*R4C4">₩2,534.2B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":3081.9514605}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]*R4C4">₩3,082.0B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Implied market cap"}'><strong>Implied market cap</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":23039.26406}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]*(Terms!R5C2+Terms!R15C2)/1000000000"><strong>₩23,039.3B</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":28019.36699}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"₩#,##0.0B"}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-3]C[0]*(Terms!R5C2+Terms!R15C2)/1000000000"><strong>₩28,019.4B</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":" - Discount"}'><strong>- Discount</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.3240237431653699}' data-sheets-formula="=(R23C2-R[-4]C[0])/R23C2"><strong>32.40%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.17790660467928177}' data-sheets-formula="=(R23C2-R[-4]C[0])/R23C2"><strong>17.79%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="3" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Offering sizeKrafton, one of the hottest IPOs of the year, has released its IPO book. Krafton is a Korean game developer established in March 2007. It offers 10.06M shares, representing 23.25% of the total shares, of which 55~75% will be institutional allocation.





Offering size

Ticker
TBA


Bourse
KOSPI


Pre-IPO SO
43,274,070


Offering
10,060,230


- % of SO
23.25%


- Institutional allotment
55.00~75.00%

Source: DART

SplitThis is a split offering at a ratio of 69.88% (primary) and 30.12% (secondary). As a result, this offering will see a capital increase rate of 16.25%. This IPO is free of any additional option: cornerstone, clawback, or greenshoe.





Split

Primary %
69.88%


Secondary %
30.12%


Post-IPO shares outstanding
50,304,070


Capital increase rate
16.25%


Dilution
13.98%

Source: DART

ScheduleThe book opens on June 28 for both local and overseas and runs until July 9. The allotment will be on July 12 with a final offering price. The subscription follows on June July 14.





Schedule

Book open
2021. 6. 28


Book close
2021. 7. 9


Allotment
2021. 7. 12


Subscription
2021. 7. 14


Payment
2021. 7. 19


Listing
TBA

Source: DART

PricingThe IPO book features 7 valuation peers: Walt Disney, NetEase, Activision Blizzard, Take-Two, INC Common Stock, Warner Music, NCSoft, and Netmarble. The earnings used in this valuation are the 1Q21 based annualized earnings. The average P/E multiple came at 45.20x.












PER valuation
Walt Disney
NetEase
Activision Blizzard
Take-Two Interactive Software
Warner Music Group
NCSoft
Netmarble


Ticker
DIS
9999
ATVI
TTWO
WMG
036570
251270


Market cap
₩357,657.2B
₩84,181.2B
₩82,893.2B
₩23,133.7B
₩19,927.3B
₩18,507.2B
₩11,627.2B


Earnings
₩4,028.3B
₩3,100.7B
₩2,767.5B
₩978.3B
₩523.1B
₩323.5B
₩225.7B


P/E
88.79x
27.15x
29.95x
23.65x
38.10x
57.21x
51.52x


Average
45.20x

Source: DART

A 45.20x multiple to a 1Q21-based annualized earnings of ₩776.1B implies a market cap of ₩35.07T for Krafton. 






PER valuation
Krafton


1Q21 earnings
₩194.0B


Annualized earnings
₩776.1B


P/E
45.20x


Market cap
₩35,073.6B


Post-IPO SO, incl. stock options
51,766,185


Price per share
₩677,539

Source: DART

A 17.79~32.40% discount sets up an indicative price band of ₩458,000~557,000, implying a market cap of ₩23.04~28.02T.







Pricing
Low
High


Price
₩458,000
₩557,000


Base deal size
₩4,607.6B
₩5,603.5B


- Institutional allotment
₩2,534.2B
₩3,082.0B


Implied market cap
₩23,039.3B
₩28,019.4B


- Discount
32.40%
17.79%

Source: DART



Krafton IPO: Offering Detail, Valuation Issue, & Index Fast Entry

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<p>This is a follow-up to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/esg-and-bitcoin-the-truth-lies-somewhere-between-benign-and-boiling-off-oceans" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52134" rel="noopener">ESG and Bitcoin: The Truth Lies Somewhere Between Benign and Boiling Off Oceans</a>, in which I discussed the ongoing cryptocurrency/ESG debate, and explained the reasoning behind my slightly positive long-term opinion of the issue (near-term negative, however).</p><p>Essentially, it boiled down to the <em>balance</em> of Environmental, Social, and Governance issues. Proof-of-Work cryptocurrencies (especially Bitcoin) are an Environmental nightmare. However, there is reason for optimism (e.g., Ethereum 2.0), and some long-term Social issues are <em>major</em> positives.</p><p>Nevertheless, the raging firestorm over cryptocurrency's Environmental footprint will be foremost on the minds of many ESG-minded investors. They will want avoid crypto at all costs. That is easy regarding direct exposure – just don't buy Bitcoin, Coinbase, or any other crypto pure-plays.</p><p>Indirect cryptocurrency exposure is a different story altogether. As cryptocurrencies become more mainstream, the potential for indirect exposure increases – in probability, degree, and number of possible vectors. Some are hard to miss (e.g., Tesla), but others are much harder to identify.</p><p>Ergo, this Insight. It covers the first of several emerging areas of potential indirect crypto exposure, specifically the growing cadre of listed companies putting crypto on the books; holding Bitcoins in treasuries for a variety of reasons, but primarily as a supposed super-hedge against inflation.</p><p>It is written for the never-Bitcoin environmentalist investor, but with a little imagination any pro-Bitcoin investor can just flip its messages upside down. After all, whether indirect cryptocurrency exposure is an ESG risk or an ESG opportunity is entirely up to you to decide, for yourself.</p>

This is a follow-up to ESG and Bitcoin: The Truth Lies Somewhere Between Benign and Boiling Off Oceans, in which I discussed the ongoing cryptocurrency/ESG debate, and explained the reasoning behind my slightly positive long-term opinion of the issue (near-term negative, however).Essentially, it boiled down to the balance of Environmental, Social, and Governance issues. Proof-of-Work cryptocurrencies (especially Bitcoin) are an Environmental nightmare. However, there is reason for optimism (e.g., Ethereum 2.0), and some long-term Social issues are major positives.Nevertheless, the raging firestorm over cryptocurrency's Environmental footprint will be foremost on the minds of many ESG-minded investors. They will want avoid crypto at all costs. That is easy regarding direct exposure – just don't buy Bitcoin, Coinbase, or any other crypto pure-plays.Indirect cryptocurrency exposure is a different story altogether. As cryptocurrencies become more mainstream, the potential for indirect exposure increases – in probability, degree, and number of possible vectors. Some are hard to miss (e.g., Tesla), but others are much harder to identify.Ergo, this Insight. It covers the first of several emerging areas of potential indirect crypto exposure, specifically the growing cadre of listed companies putting crypto on the books; holding Bitcoins in treasuries for a variety of reasons, but primarily as a supposed super-hedge against inflation.It is written for the never-Bitcoin environmentalist investor, but with a little imagination any pro-Bitcoin investor can just flip its messages upside down. After all, whether indirect cryptocurrency exposure is an ESG risk or an ESG opportunity is entirely up to you to decide, for yourself.

Bitcoin on Balance Sheets: Indirect Crypto Exposure Considerations for Crypto-Leery ESG Investors

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-int-l-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22803:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Int’L Holding (1579 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical (2382 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in the Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Information Technology sectors, and decreased in the Communication Services and Financials sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16032:1" rel="noopener">Nexon (3659 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orix-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9936:1" rel="noopener">Orix Corp (8591 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokai-carbon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9145:1" rel="noopener">Tokai Carbon (5301 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaskawa-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2458:1" rel="noopener">Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a>. Shorts increased in the Financials and Communication Services sectors, and decreased in the Information Technology and Consumer Staples sectors.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a> during the week.</p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/novatek-microelectronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10904:1" rel="noopener">Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergreen-marine-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15428:1" rel="noopener">Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fitipower-integrated-tech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8712:1" rel="noopener">Fitipower Integrated Tech (4961 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genius-electronic-optical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9632:1" rel="noopener">Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hannstar-display-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13922:1" rel="noopener">Hannstar Display (6116 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-cement" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19736:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Cement (1101 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/focaltech-systems-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11240:1" rel="noopener">Focaltech Systems (3545 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/winbond-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9177:1" rel="noopener">Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Meituan (3690 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), Haidilao (6862 HK), Yihai Int’L Holding (1579 HK) and Sunny Optical (2382 HK) while there was short covering on Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK), Baidu (9888 HK) and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK). Shorts increased in the Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Information Technology sectors, and decreased in the Communication Services and Financials sectors.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Nexon (3659 JP), Orix Corp (8591 JP), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) and Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) while shorts decreased on Shiseido Company (4911 JP), Tokai Carbon (5301 JP), Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP) and Canon Inc (7751 JP). Shorts increased in the Financials and Communication Services sectors, and decreased in the Information Technology and Consumer Staples sectors.In Korea, shorts decreased on Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) and Samsung SDI (006400 KS) during the week.Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were Yageo Corporation (2327 TT), Novatek Microelectronics Corp (3034 TT), Evergreen Marine Corp (2603 TT), TSMC (2330 TT) and Fitipower Integrated Tech (4961 TT) while shorts were covered on Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TT), Hannstar Display (6116 TT), Taiwan Cement (1101 TT), Focaltech Systems (3545 TT) and Winbond Electronics (2344 TT). 

Asia Short Interest: Meituan, WuxiBio, Tencent, Nexon, Orix, Toshiba, Shiseido, Samsung, Hannstar

Japan

Nexon Co., Ltd. mainly develops and services, online games for PC and mobile devices. The company also offers consulting services related to online-games. Nexon operates in Japan.

Price Gauge
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Nexon (3659 JP)

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