Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the December 2021 review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> in November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 9 December.There could be a change at the September futures expiry with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sd-biosensor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33333:1" rel="noopener">SD Biosensor (SDBIOZ KS)</a> getting Fast Entry into the index. We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lock-lock-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4739:1" rel="noopener">Lock&amp;Lock (115390 KS)</a> as a potential deletion to make way for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sd-biosensor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33333:1" rel="noopener">SD Biosensor (SDBIOZ KS)</a>. At the current time, we see 3 potential changes at the regular review in December with F&amp;F Co (383220 KS), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20694:1" rel="noopener">Sl Corp (005850 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seah-besteel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11760:1" rel="noopener">Seah Besteel (001430 KS)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samyang-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9100:1" rel="noopener">Samyang Foods (003230 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/f-f-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15983:1" rel="noopener">F&amp;F Co Ltd (007700 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jw-pharmaceutical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18784:1" rel="noopener">Jw Pharmaceutical (001060 KS)</a>. These names could change over the next few months and their prices (and the prices of the other stocks) move around.After the 100%+ returns in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> June review by buying the inclusions and selling the exclusions (or the KOSPI2 index futures), there will be a lot of interest in the December review.In this Insight we look at the KOSPI 200 index methodology, the historical performance of inclusions vs exclusions, at potential candidates for inclusion/exclusion in this review and some of the details around the names.

The Korea Exchange (KRX) will announce the results of the December 2021 review of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) in November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 9 December.There could be a change at the September futures expiry with SD Biosensor (SDBIOZ KS) getting Fast Entry into the index. We see Lock&amp;Lock (115390 KS) as a potential deletion to make way for SD Biosensor (SDBIOZ KS). At the current time, we see 3 potential changes at the regular review in December with F&amp;F Co (383220 KS), Sl Corp (005850 KS) and Seah Besteel (001430 KS) replacing Samyang Foods (003230 KS), F&amp;F Co Ltd (007700 KS) and Jw Pharmaceutical (001060 KS). These names could change over the next few months and their prices (and the prices of the other stocks) move around.After the 100%+ returns in the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) June review by buying the inclusions and selling the exclusions (or the KOSPI2 index futures), there will be a lot of interest in the December review.In this Insight we look at the KOSPI 200 index methodology, the historical performance of inclusions vs exclusions, at potential candidates for inclusion/exclusion in this review and some of the details around the names.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Focus Shifts to December After a Fantastic June Review

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Korea Exchange announced its bi-annual changes to KOSPI200 today. These changes are effective 12 June 2020. For the KOSPI200, there were 11 new additions including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanjin-kal-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19086:1" rel="noopener">Hanjin KAL Corp (180640 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asiana-airlines" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1896:1" rel="noopener">Asiana Airlines (020560 KS)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lotte-tour-development-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5526:1" rel="noopener">Lotte Tour Development Co, Ltd. (032350 KS)</a>.  There were also 11 deletions including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/namyang-dairy-products-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16249:1" rel="noopener">Namyang Dairy Products Co (003920 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ak-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3472:1" rel="noopener">Ak Holdings Inc (006840 KS)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyosung-heavy-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27750:1" rel="noopener">Hyosung Heavy Industries Corp (298040 KS)</a>.  </li>
<li>Comparing the actual inclusions vs. our estimates for the KOSPI 200 Inclusion, five of the companies were included in both lists (Hajin Kal, POSCO Chem, F&amp;F, Asiana Airlines, &amp; HMM). </li>
<li>Comparing the actual exclusions vs. our estimates for the KOSPI 200 Exclusion, seven of the companies were included in both lists (Hyosung Heavy, Ssangyong Motor, Namyang Dairy, Hyundai Livart, Hankook Shell Oil, Tongyang, and AK Holdings). </li>
</ul>


The Korea Exchange announced its bi-annual changes to KOSPI200 today. These changes are effective 12 June 2020. For the KOSPI200, there were 11 new additions including Hanjin KAL Corp (180640 KS), Asiana Airlines (020560 KS), and Lotte Tour Development Co, Ltd. (032350 KS).  There were also 11 deletions including Namyang Dairy Products Co (003920 KS), Ak Holdings Inc (006840 KS), and Hyosung Heavy Industries Corp (298040 KS).  
Comparing the actual inclusions vs. our estimates for the KOSPI 200 Inclusion, five of the companies were included in both lists (Hajin Kal, POSCO Chem, F&amp;F, Asiana Airlines, &amp; HMM). 
Comparing the actual exclusions vs. our estimates for the KOSPI 200 Exclusion, seven of the companies were included in both lists (Hyosung Heavy, Ssangyong Motor, Namyang Dairy, Hyundai Livart, Hankook Shell Oil, Tongyang, and AK Holdings). 


Final Bi-Annual Rebalance Announced for KOSPI200, KOSDAQ150, & KRX300

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

<ul>
<li>Nexen Sub made a run yesterday. It climbed 6% yesterday. Holdco stayed flat with a 0.34% gain. This created a huge price divergence. The duo made nearly 2σ gap in one single day. They are now slightly below -1σ on a 20D MA. Holdco discount is 46% to NAV.</li>
<li>This much divergence in a single day is very rare for the Nexen duo. Sub's stronger 4Q numbers should have been already priced in. Yesterday was more of a sentimental boost, thanks to HMG. Short-term wise, further price pushing up on Sub is unlikely.</li>
<li>The duo is well below 120D mean and 2Y mean on a 20D MA price ratio. Price divergence should be held back at the current level. I'd go for a quick reversion in favor of Holdco. Just, Holdco liquidity can be a major issue to many of us here.</li>
</ul>


Nexen Sub made a run yesterday. It climbed 6% yesterday. Holdco stayed flat with a 0.34% gain. This created a huge price divergence. The duo made nearly 2σ gap in one single day. They are now slightly below -1σ on a 20D MA. Holdco discount is 46% to NAV.
This much divergence in a single day is very rare for the Nexen duo. Sub's stronger 4Q numbers should have been already priced in. Yesterday was more of a sentimental boost, thanks to HMG. Short-term wise, further price pushing up on Sub is unlikely.
The duo is well below 120D mean and 2Y mean on a 20D MA price ratio. Price divergence should be held back at the current level. I'd go for a quick reversion in favor of Holdco. Just, Holdco liquidity can be a major issue to many of us here.


Nexen Holdco Trade: Quick Reversion on Yesterday's 2σ Price Divergence

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16251" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16251:1">Nexen Corp (005720 KS)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14206" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14206:1">Nexen Tire Corp (002350 KS)</a> stub trade yield is 6.07%. Price ratio is now at 20D MA. Holdco discount now stands at 41.57% to NAV.</li>
<li>Shorting on Tire has softened in the last two trading days. No yearend dividend boosting effect is expected on Holdco. Holdco discount isn't particularly high. Price ratio is well above yearly avg. I'd close this position now at a 6.07% yield.</li>
</ul>



Nexen Corp (005720 KS) / Nexen Tire Corp (002350 KS) stub trade yield is 6.07%. Price ratio is now at 20D MA. Holdco discount now stands at 41.57% to NAV.
Shorting on Tire has softened in the last two trading days. No yearend dividend boosting effect is expected on Holdco. Holdco discount isn't particularly high. Price ratio is well above yearly avg. I'd close this position now at a 6.07% yield.


Nexen Corp Holdco Trade: Status Update & Recommended Action

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16251" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16251:1">Nexen Corp (005720 KS)</a> is one of the few Korean holdcos that make it suitable for stub trade. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14206" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14206:1">Nexen Tire Corp (002350 KS)</a> accounts for 75% of Holdco NAV. Holdco discount stands at 43.73% to NAV. This is a bit higher relative to the Korean holdco average (40% to NAV).</li>
<li>Nexen Tire was up 6.58% yesterday on the announcement of a tire supply contract for Volkswagen Jetta. Price ratio currently stands at nearly -3 σ. This is virtually a record low. I'd do this stub trade, just on a small scale. Liquidity may be an issue. But borrow on Tire wouldn't be a challenge.</li>
</ul>



Nexen Corp (005720 KS) is one of the few Korean holdcos that make it suitable for stub trade. Nexen Tire Corp (002350 KS) accounts for 75% of Holdco NAV. Holdco discount stands at 43.73% to NAV. This is a bit higher relative to the Korean holdco average (40% to NAV).
Nexen Tire was up 6.58% yesterday on the announcement of a tire supply contract for Volkswagen Jetta. Price ratio currently stands at nearly -3 σ. This is virtually a record low. I'd do this stub trade, just on a small scale. Liquidity may be an issue. But borrow on Tire wouldn't be a challenge.


Nexen Holdco Trade: Opportunity of Stub Trade Has Come

South Korea

Nexen Tire Corporation manufactures, markets, and exports tires and inner tubes for automobiles, industrial and agricultural machinery, and construction equipment.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nexen Tire Corp (002350 KS)

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: Focus Shifts to December After a Fantastic June Review

We see 1 potential change in September and 3 potential changes at the KOSPI200 December review. Post the excellent returns at the June rebalance,...

Brian Freitas

Final Bi-Annual Rebalance Announced for KOSPI200, KOSDAQ150, & KRX300

The Korea Exchange announced its bi-annual changes to KOSPI200 today. These changes are effective 12 June 2020. For the KOSPI200, there were 11...

Douglas Kim

Nexen Holdco Trade: Quick Reversion on Yesterday's 2σ Price Divergence

Nexen Sub made a run yesterday. It climbed 6% yesterday. Holdco stayed flat with a 0.34% gain. This created a huge price divergence. The duo made...

Sanghyun Park

Nexen Corp Holdco Trade: Status Update & Recommended Action

Nexen Corp (005720 KS) / Nexen Tire Corp (002350 KS) stub trade yield is 6.07%. Price ratio is now at 20D MA. Holdco discount now stands at...

Sanghyun Park

Nexen Holdco Trade: Opportunity of Stub Trade Has Come

Nexen Corp (005720 KS) is one of the few Korean holdcos that make it suitable for stub trade. Nexen Tire Corp (002350 KS) accounts for 75% of...

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)