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House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

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Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The S&amp;P 500 had a great reaction in the second part of July and the first half of August, but now he's showing weak again.</li><li>The last high is perfectly aligned with a down-sloping trendline.</li><li>On the other side there is an interesting support close to 3,800. Is the index going to test that level again?</li></ul>

The S&amp;P 500 had a great reaction in the second part of July and the first half of August, but now he's showing weak again.The last high is perfectly aligned with a down-sloping trendline.On the other side there is an interesting support close to 3,800. Is the index going to test that level again?

Research from ACF Equity Research, ACF Equity Research

ACF Equity Research

Research from ACF Equity Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Silver (Ag) is half store of value and half industrial metal. A hawkish Federal Reserve and spiking bond yields will create significant headwinds for the Ag price 2H22E. Any expectations for global recession, leading to an industrial cycle downturn will also push the silver price down. In 2H22E we assess that both weakening industrial activity (&gt;50% of global silver demand) and monetary policy trends will exert downward pressure on silver’s price. Beyond YE22E the physical silver supply deficit remains a positive for the silver price. As the world transitions to greener forms of energy and transport, the commensurate increasing use of silver in electronics and photovoltaics should support structural demand growth and so raise silver’s mid-term price beyond YE22E because of the structural silver supply deficit.

Silver (Ag) is half store of value and half industrial metal. A hawkish Federal Reserve and spiking bond yields will create significant headwinds for the Ag price 2H22E. Any expectations for global recession, leading to an industrial cycle downturn will also push the silver price down. In 2H22E we assess that both weakening industrial activity (&gt;50% of global silver demand) and monetary policy trends will exert downward pressure on silver’s price. Beyond YE22E the physical silver supply deficit remains a positive for the silver price. As the world transitions to greener forms of energy and transport, the commensurate increasing use of silver in electronics and photovoltaics should support structural demand growth and so raise silver’s mid-term price beyond YE22E because of the structural silver supply deficit.

Silver Thematic ACF Equity Research 11082022

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Newmont’s Q222 results are scheduled for release on 25 July. This report updates our forecasts for Q2–Q422 for metals prices and production costs, as well as output from Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) and Pueblo Viejo, which were announced by Barrick on 14 July.

Newmont’s Q222 results are scheduled for release on 25 July. This report updates our forecasts for Q2–Q422 for metals prices and production costs, as well as output from Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) and Pueblo Viejo, which were announced by Barrick on 14 July. 

Newmont Corporation - A high-dividend safe haven

Despite slightly lower production and higher costs in Q122, Newmont’s financial performance was within 6% of our prior expectations and exceeded them once adjusted for a one-off, exceptional pension settlement charge. As a result, despite a 6.5% lower prevailing gold price than at the time of our last note published on 21 April, we have only modestly reduced our adjusted net EPS forecast for the year by just 6.4%.

Despite slightly lower production and higher costs in Q122, Newmont’s financial performance was within 6% of our prior expectations and exceeded them once adjusted for a one-off, exceptional pension settlement charge. As a result, despite a 6.5% lower prevailing gold price than at the time of our last note published on 21 April, we have only modestly reduced our adjusted net EPS forecast for the year by just 6.4%.

Newmont Corporation - Empowering sustainability

After a fourth quarter result that was 13.7% ahead of our expectations, we expect Newmont’s financial performance to be restrained in the first two quarters of FY22, principally as a result of lingering constraints owing to the coronavirus pandemic. However, we believe that it will then pick up again strongly and, at current gold prices, we have therefore upgraded our FY22 basic adjusted net EPS forecast by 7.8% (Exhibit 6).

After a fourth quarter result that was 13.7% ahead of our expectations, we expect Newmont’s financial performance to be restrained in the first two quarters of FY22, principally as a result of lingering constraints owing to the coronavirus pandemic. However, we believe that it will then pick up again strongly and, at current gold prices, we have therefore upgraded our FY22 basic adjusted net EPS forecast by 7.8% (Exhibit 6).

Newmont Corporation - Building it piece by piece

United States

Nucor Corporation manufactures steel products.  The Company's products include carbon and alloy steel, steel joists, steel deck, cold finished steel, steel grinding balls, steel bearing products, and metal buildingsystems. Nucor also brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron and HBI/DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. distributes and processes steel and aluminum. The Company's products include carbon, alloy, stainless and specialty steel, aluminum, brass, and copper.  Reliance operates processing and distribution centers throughout the United States. Reliance Steel & Aluminum operates in Spain.

Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a diversified carbon-steel steel producer and metals recycler in the U.S, located in Fort Wayne, IN. The Company's operating segments include Steel Operations, Metals Recycling & Ferrous Resources Operations, and Steel Fabrication Operations. Steel Dynamics products include flat rolled steel sheet, engineered bar special-bar-quality, structural beams.

Royal Gold, Inc. acquires and manages precious metals royalties.  The Company seeks to acquire existing royalties or to finance projects that are in production or near production in exchange for royalty interests.  Royal Gold Inc.'s gold-focused portfolio contains royalties ranging from those in production and development to those in the evaluation and exploration stages.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is an international natural resources company. The Company operates large, long-lived, geographically diverse assets with significant reserves of copper, gold, molybdenum, cobalt, oil, and gas.

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

United States Steel Corporation operates as an integrated steel producer. The Company manufactures flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in North America and Europe. United States Steel serves the automotive, appliance, container, industrial machinery, construction, and oil and gas industries.

Alcoa Corporation manufactures metal products. The Company produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Alcoa serves aluminum industry worldwide.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is an American iron ore mining company. The Company supplies iron ore pellets, lumps and fines to blast furnaces in the global steel industry. Cliffs is in the process of expanding its customer base to Electric Arc Furnaces.

Carpenter Technology Corporation manufactures, fabricates, and distributes stainless steels, titanium, and specialty metal alloys.  Carpenter processes basic metal alloying elements into finished products such as billets, bars, rods, and various special shapes. The Company also manufactures engineered products such as ceramics and metal injected molded designs.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. explores for and produces iron ore. The Company conducts business worldwide.

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

Newcrest Mining Limited is a gold mining, exploration and production company. The Company is geographically focused in Australia, the Pacific region and Asia. Newcrest Mining operates projects within six provinces in four countries, focusing on the Cadia East and Lihir MOPU expansion projects and the Wafi Golpu and Namosi greenfield projects.

Glencore Plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups: Metals and Minerals, Energy Products, and Agricultural Products. Glencore Plc offers its products and services around the world.

Nippon Steel Corp is an integrated steel maker. The Company produces various types of steel products used for industrial machinery & equipment and exports them worldwide.  Nippon Steel provides plant construction and urban development and also develops new businesses such as chemicals, ceramics, electronic equipment and information & communication systems.

China Steel Corporation manufactures and markets a variety of steel products. The main products are hot rolled coils and sheets, cold rolled coils and sheets, wire rods, steel plates, and steel bars.

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. manufactures aluminum products. The Company's aluminum products consist of molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum busbars.

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of iron and steel products including cold rolled plates and coils, hot rolled plates and coils, seamless steel tubes, high-speed wire rods, and steel billets.  The company also operates in related energy production businesses.

Newmont Mining Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces gold from operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. Newmont also mines and processes copper in Indonesia.

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Newmont Mining (NEM US)

Charts to Watch #7

The last high is perfectly aligned with a down-sloping trendline. On the other side there is an interesting support close to 3,800. Is the index...

Market Radar

Silver Thematic ACF Equity Research 11082022

Silver (Ag) is half store of value and half industrial metal. A hawkish Federal Reserve and spiking bond yields will create significant headwinds...

ACF Equity Research

Newmont Corporation - A high-dividend safe haven

Newmont’s Q222 results are scheduled for release on 25 July. This report updates our forecasts for Q2–Q422 for metals prices and production costs,...

Edison Investment Research

Newmont Corporation - Empowering sustainability

Despite slightly lower production and higher costs in Q122, Newmont’s financial performance was within 6% of our prior expectations and exceeded...

Edison Investment Research

Newmont Corporation - Building it piece by piece

After a fourth quarter result that was 13.7% ahead of our expectations, we expect Newmont’s financial performance to be restrained in the first two...

Edison Investment Research

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