Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.</li>
</ul>


We still see signs suggesting a test of the lows or a break to new lows is increasingly likely on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
One of those signs is the fact that defensives (Utilities, Staples, pharma, Real Estate) remain at new RS highs.
Meanwhile, WTI crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the commodity and defensive Sectors.


Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

<ul>
<li>Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance.</li>
<li>We believe this sets the stage for a test of the 2089 all-time highs, and we expect a breakout which would complete a 10-year cup-and-handle pattern.</li>
<li>Gold and silver miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) are also breaking out -- overweight/add exposure. Now is an opportune time to get in on these fresh breakouts.</li>
</ul>


Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance.
We believe this sets the stage for a test of the 2089 all-time highs, and we expect a breakout which would complete a 10-year cup-and-handle pattern.
Gold and silver miners (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) are also breaking out -- overweight/add exposure. Now is an opportune time to get in on these fresh breakouts.


Miners Breaking Out, Buy Gold & Silver Miners NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, AUY, SSRM, BTG, WPM, PAAS, Others

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes are approaching critical support levels, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on the DJIA. These are our "lines-in-the-sand" moving forward.</li>
<li>We expect for supports to hold, but breakdowns below these levels would not be surprising and would likely mean an additional 8-15% downside based on measured moves.</li>
<li>Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, QQQ, DJIA, Bitcoin, XLP, XLU, IWM, IJR, BKNG, EXPE, SABR, DESP, NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, RGLD, GFI, SBSW, and AU.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes are approaching critical support levels, including 4257 on the S&amp;P 500, $334 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on the DJIA. These are our "lines-in-the-sand" moving forward.
We expect for supports to hold, but breakdowns below these levels would not be surprising and would likely mean an additional 8-15% downside based on measured moves.
Charts Highlighted: S&amp;P 500, QQQ, DJIA, Bitcoin, XLP, XLU, IWM, IJR, BKNG, EXPE, SABR, DESP, NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, RGLD, GFI, SBSW, and AU.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA Testing Support; Buying Gold Miners and Online Travel

Jitters over today’s Georgia Senate runoff elections led to mild weakness on the first trading day of the year. As we explain below, this appears to be just a blip on the radar and our bullish outlook remains intact. We continue to view any weakness as a buying opportunity. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Materials: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Large-Cap, Copper, Gold, Western Hemisphere, Large-Cap, and Silver, Platinum.

Jitters over today’s Georgia Senate runoff elections led to mild weakness on the first trading day of the year. As we explain below, this appears to be just a blip on the radar and our bullish outlook remains intact. We continue to view any weakness as a buying opportunity. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary and Materials: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Large-Cap, Copper, Gold, Western Hemisphere, Large-Cap, and Silver, Platinum.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saracen-mineral-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2415:1" rel="noopener">Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)</a> have <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20201006/pdf/44ncx7hy38vkm3.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">agree</a>d to a merger-of-equals via a Scheme of Arrangement under which NST will acquire 100% of SAR.
SAR shareholders will receive 0.3763 new NST shares for each SAR share. SAR will also pay a fully franked dividend of A$0.038/share, conditional on the Scheme becoming effective.
Subsequent to a successful Scheme, NST shareholders will hold 64% of the combined entity (with roughly a A$16bn market cap), and SAR shareholders 36%. 
Pre-tax synergies are estimated to be worth A$1.5bn-A$2bn over the next 10 years. 
Standard Scheme conditions apply: SAR shareholders approving the Scheme (75%); independent expert concluding the Scheme is in the best interest of SAR shareholders; and no MACs, for either NST and SAR.
The tentative implementation date is February 2021.
As always, more below the fold.

Northern Star Resources (NST AU) and Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) have agreed to a merger-of-equals via a Scheme of Arrangement under which NST will acquire 100% of SAR.
SAR shareholders will receive 0.3763 new NST shares for each SAR share. SAR will also pay a fully franked dividend of A$0.038/share, conditional on the Scheme becoming effective.
Subsequent to a successful Scheme, NST shareholders will hold 64% of the combined entity (with roughly a A$16bn market cap), and SAR shareholders 36%. 
Pre-tax synergies are estimated to be worth A$1.5bn-A$2bn over the next 10 years. 
Standard Scheme conditions apply: SAR shareholders approving the Scheme (75%); independent expert concluding the Scheme is in the best interest of SAR shareholders; and no MACs, for either NST and SAR.
The tentative implementation date is February 2021.
As always, more below the fold. 

United States

Newmont Mining Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces gold from operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. Newmont also mines and processes copper in Indonesia.

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Newmont Mining (NEM US)

Sticking With Commodity and Defensive Sectors; Buying Coal, Steel, Gold Stocks

Crude oil and the Bloomberg Commodity index $DJP are breaking out from 1-month consolidations, signaling upside continuation. Stick with the...

Vermilion Research

Miners Breaking Out, Buy Gold & Silver Miners NEM, GOLD, FNV, AEM, AUY, SSRM, BTG, WPM, PAAS, Others

#Gold has been consolidating its gains following the major breakout above 1850, and is now bullishly inflecting above 1970 short-term resistance....

Vermilion Research

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA Testing Support; Buying Gold Miners and Online Travel

Large-cap indexes are approaching critical support levels of 4257 on S&P 500, $334 on Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on DJIA. These are our "lines in...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

mild weakness on the first trading day of the year appears to be just a blip on the radar and our bullish outlook remains intact. We continue to...

Vermilion Research

Northern Star/Saracen: Merger Of Equals

Northern Star Resources (NST AU) and $sara

David Blennerhassett

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