Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li class="p1">The outlook for copper prices is worse than most think. Battered copper mining stocks may now screen as cheap, but we see further downside.&nbsp;</li><li class="p2">Copper price declines of the past few months have caused many analysts to pare their near-term price forecasts. Yet longer term, most remain bullish, citing copper's geological scarcity and continued, albeit slower, Chinese demand growth.</li><li class="p2">Most analysts forecast an eventual recovery to $2.25-$3.00 per pound, an outlook that informs aggressive price targets on copper mining stocks.&nbsp;</li><li class="p2">We forecast a long-term price of $2.00 per pound and expect ebbing Chinese demand, which accounts for roughly half of the global total, to push prices below $2.00 in 2016 and 2017.</li><li class="p2">We expect China's copper needs to fall as real estate activity fades to a level more commensurate with underlying urbanization trends and power spending shifts away from copper-heavy distribution to copper-light transmission.</li><li class="p2">On the supply side, cost deflation, a flattening of the cost curve, and rising scrap supplies all threaten prices.</li><li class="p2">We see significant downside risk in copper mining stocks.</li></ul>Analysts: Jeffrey Stafford, CFA &amp; Daniel Rohr, CFA

The outlook for copper prices is worse than most think. Battered copper mining stocks may now screen as cheap, but we see further downside.&nbsp;Copper price declines of the past few months have caused many analysts to pare their near-term price forecasts. Yet longer term, most remain bullish, citing copper's geological scarcity and continued, albeit slower, Chinese demand growth.Most analysts forecast an eventual recovery to $2.25-$3.00 per pound, an outlook that informs aggressive price targets on copper mining stocks.&nbsp;We forecast a long-term price of $2.00 per pound and expect ebbing Chinese demand, which accounts for roughly half of the global total, to push prices below $2.00 in 2016 and 2017.We expect China's copper needs to fall as real estate activity fades to a level more commensurate with underlying urbanization trends and power spending shifts away from copper-heavy distribution to copper-light transmission.On the supply side, cost deflation, a flattening of the cost curve, and rising scrap supplies all threaten prices.We see significant downside risk in copper mining stocks.Analysts: Jeffrey Stafford, CFA &amp; Daniel Rohr, CFA

The Outlook for Copper Prices Is Worse than Most Think

<ul><li>The precipitous slide in oil prices since fall 2014 has eroded the financial health of most exploration and production, or E&amp;P, firms.</li><li>Natural gas has been no safe haven either, with prices entrenched near 10- year lows.</li><li>Near-term fundamentals remain challenged for both commodities, and investors should be prepared for weak pricing to persist for much if not all of 2016&ndash;17.</li><li>As a result, many operators&mdash;who outspend cash flows even during the best of times&mdash;are currently hemorrhaging cash and seeing leverage rise to uncomfortable levels.</li><li>Investors are right to be concerned about whether the upstream space has the financial wherewithal to endure this sustained period of low oil and natural prices, and which firms might be casualties of such an environment.</li><li>Having analyzed the balance sheets, cost structures, and operations of our E&amp;P coverage list, we found that in the vast majority of cases, the E&amp;P firms we cover are well-equipped to cope with multiple years of low prices.</li><li>That's partly due to cost deflation and efficiency gains but most critically from the prompt utilization of capital markets earlier this year to prop up liquidity reserves.</li><li>To be sure, even within our coverage there exists a handful of firms that entered the downturn with too much leverage and hold lower quality assets&mdash;these are the few that may not emerge from the current environment unscathed.</li><li>But as a group, our E&amp;P universe seems more financially sound than headlines and investor sentiment might otherwise suggest.</li></ul>Analysts: David Meats, Mark Hanson CFA, Stephen Simko CFA, Brandon Hurst.Full report below the fold....

The precipitous slide in oil prices since fall 2014 has eroded the financial health of most exploration and production, or E&amp;P, firms.Natural gas has been no safe haven either, with prices entrenched near 10- year lows.Near-term fundamentals remain challenged for both commodities, and investors should be prepared for weak pricing to persist for much if not all of 2016&ndash;17.As a result, many operators&mdash;who outspend cash flows even during the best of times&mdash;are currently hemorrhaging cash and seeing leverage rise to uncomfortable levels.Investors are right to be concerned about whether the upstream space has the financial wherewithal to endure this sustained period of low oil and natural prices, and which firms might be casualties of such an environment.Having analyzed the balance sheets, cost structures, and operations of our E&amp;P coverage list, we found that in the vast majority of cases, the E&amp;P firms we cover are well-equipped to cope with multiple years of low prices.That's partly due to cost deflation and efficiency gains but most critically from the prompt utilization of capital markets earlier this year to prop up liquidity reserves.To be sure, even within our coverage there exists a handful of firms that entered the downturn with too much leverage and hold lower quality assets&mdash;these are the few that may not emerge from the current environment unscathed.But as a group, our E&amp;P universe seems more financially sound than headlines and investor sentiment might otherwise suggest.Analysts: David Meats, Mark Hanson CFA, Stephen Simko CFA, Brandon Hurst.Full report below the fold....

E&P Financial Health: Better Than You Think. Liquidity Reserves Will See Most Firms Through Downturn

United States

NewMarket Corporation develops, manufactures, and blends fuel and lubricant additives marketed worldwide to refiners and others who sell petroleum products. The Company's products are used in transportation and industrial equipment.

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Newmarket Corp (NEU US)

The Outlook for Copper Prices Is Worse than Most Think

The outlook for copper prices is worse than most think. Battered copper mining stocks may now screen as cheap, but we see further...

Morningstar, Inc.

E&P Financial Health: Better Than You Think. Liquidity Reserves Will See Most Firms Through Downturn

The precipitous slide in oil prices since fall 2014 has eroded the financial health of most exploration and production, or E&P, firms. Natural...

Morningstar, Inc.

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