Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont (NEM US)</a> CDI selldown on 15 December will have to be bought by active shareholders, not passive; a relatively large reverse funding trade on the ASX rebal.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a>'s CEO steps down. However, operations/investments, and the ongoing tweaking of the organizational structure with respect to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, should continue unabated. </li>
<li>Activist shareholders and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> stuck with each other for years. The takeover allows both sides to escape their mutual bearhug,</li>
</ul>


The Newmont (NEM US) CDI selldown on 15 December will have to be bought by active shareholders, not passive; a relatively large reverse funding trade on the ASX rebal.

Naspers (NPN SJ)/Prosus NV (PRX NA)'s CEO steps down. However, operations/investments, and the ongoing tweaking of the organizational structure with respect to Tencent (700 HK), should continue unabated. 
Activist shareholders and Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) stuck with each other for years. The takeover allows both sides to escape their mutual bearhug,


Last Week in Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, PTT/PTTEP, Naspers/Prosus/Tencent, Itochu Techno

<ul>
<li>I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>One new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lansen-pharmaceutical-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10835:1" rel="noopener">Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Co, Ltd. (503 HK)</a>'s Scheme.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/costa-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22632:1" rel="noopener">Costa Group (CGC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symbio-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20292:1" rel="noopener">Symbio (SYM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/poly-culture-group-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4729:1" rel="noopener">Poly Culture (3636 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments (MPI PM)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 49 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
One new deals this week: Lansen Pharmaceutical Holdings Co, Ltd. (503 HK)'s Scheme.
Key updates took place for: Costa Group (CGC AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Healius (HLS AU), Symbio (SYM AU), Poly Culture (3636 HK), and Metro Pacific Investments (MPI PM).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Costa, Origin, Healius, Symbio, Poly Culture, Lansen, MPI

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Back in February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/newmont-proposes-taking-newcrest-back-into-the-fold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:95111" rel="noopener">Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold</a>. Newmont bumped, there was due dili, then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/newcrest-backs-newmont-s-us-19bn-offer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:102309" rel="noopener">Newcrest Backs Newmont's US$19bn Offer</a> in May.</li>
<li>More recently, we have <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/newcrest-shareholder-vote-on-13th-oct" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:112519" rel="noopener">Newcrest: Shareholder Vote On 13th Oct</a>, with a prescribed schedule. That makes things fun. </li>
<li>There will be considerable movement of shares, and that will mean opportunity. Both up and down. I see US$3bn to buy, then A$1.5bn or more to sell a bit later.</li>
</ul>


Back in February, Newmont Proposes Taking Newcrest Back Into The Fold. Newmont bumped, there was due dili, then Newcrest Backs Newmont's US$19bn Offer in May.
More recently, we have Newcrest: Shareholder Vote On 13th Oct, with a prescribed schedule. That makes things fun. 
There will be considerable movement of shares, and that will mean opportunity. Both up and down. I see US$3bn to buy, then A$1.5bn or more to sell a bit later.


Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be up to five ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&amp;A events.</li>
<li>There are also couple of possibly large reverse funding flow scenarios involving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
There could be up to five ASX 200 changes including the intra-review changes that could potentially be triggered by M&amp;A events.
There are also couple of possibly large reverse funding flow scenarios involving Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) and Allkem Ltd (AKE AU).


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Privatisations could lead to two/three <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> constituents being delisted in October/November and that means ad hoc inclusions to maintain the number of constituents at 200.</li>
<li>Then there could be one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index and two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the regular rebalance in December.</li>
<li>The impact on the potential adds/deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> is high at between 7.5-23 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


Privatisations could lead to two/three S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) constituents being delisted in October/November and that means ad hoc inclusions to maintain the number of constituents at 200.
Then there could be one change for the S&amp;P/ASX 20 Index and two changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the regular rebalance in December.
The impact on the potential adds/deletes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) is high at between 7.5-23 days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to December

Australia

Newcrest Mining Limited is a gold mining, exploration and production company. The Company is geographically focused in Australia, the Pacific region and Asia. Newcrest Mining operates projects within six provinces in four countries, focusing on the Cadia East and Lihir MOPU expansion projects and the Wafi Golpu and Namosi greenfield projects.

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Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, PTT/PTTEP, Naspers/Prosus/Tencent, Itochu Techno

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Costa, Origin, Healius, Symbio, Poly Culture, Lansen, MPI

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans

The Newcrest-Newmont merger sees its major shareholder vote on 13 Oct. Assuming it goes through, two weeks later start index shenanigans. The net...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)

Boss Resources, Emerald Resources, Codan, Judo Capital, and Helia Group are currently the highest-ranked ASX 200 potential ADDs. I expect these...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to December

There could be 1 change for the ASX20 in Dec. There could be 2 ad hoc inclusions for the ASX200 and then 2 changes at the Dec rebalance. Impact on...

Brian Freitas

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Newcrest/Newmont, PTT/PTTEP, Naspers/Prosus/Tencent, Itochu Techno

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Costa, Origin, Healius, Symbio, Poly Culture, Lansen, MPI

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Newcrest-Newmont Merger: Fancy Index Shenanigans

The Newcrest-Newmont merger sees its major shareholder vote on 13 Oct. Assuming it goes through, two weeks later start index shenanigans. The net...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec 23: 5 ASX 200 Changes and Other Large Potential Flow Events (NCM, AKE)

Boss Resources, Emerald Resources, Codan, Judo Capital, and Helia Group are currently the highest-ranked ASX 200 potential ADDs. I expect these...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to December

There could be 1 change for the ASX20 in Dec. There could be 2 ad hoc inclusions for the ASX200 and then 2 changes at the Dec rebalance. Impact on...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to December