Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>JD is in fact competing with a broadcaster on Alibaba’s app, but not Alibaba itself.</li>
<li>Trip.com’s domestic orders during National Holidays were double last year.</li>
<li>New Oriental’s revenue increased strongly with new learning centers in 1Q24.</li>
</ul>


JD is in fact competing with a broadcaster on Alibaba’s app, but not Alibaba itself.
Trip.com’s domestic orders during National Holidays were double last year.
New Oriental’s revenue increased strongly with new learning centers in 1Q24.


China Consumption Weekly (30 Oct 2023): Alibaba, Trip.com, New Oriental, Weibo

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>An ad hoc <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> rebalance will be implemented at the close on 17 October with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-malt-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29116:1" rel="noopener">United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU)</a>. </li>
<li>The rebalances of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdomtree-emerging-markets-146edc02-f8a5-4ac5-968b-5f0f7c89e476" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32683:1" rel="noopener">Wisdomtree Emerging Markets (DEM US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdomtree-em-small-cap" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32679:1" rel="noopener">Wisdomtree Em Small Cap (DGS US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wisdmtree-emerg-mkt-ex-st-ow" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32798:1" rel="noopener">Wisdmtree Emerg Mkt Ex-St Ow (XSOE US)</a> will be implemented on 18 October.</li>
<li>There were net outflows from onshore China ETFs with inflows to larger cap ETFs and outflows mainly from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a> and CSI 1000 Index trackers.</li>
</ul>


An ad hoc S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) rebalance will be implemented at the close on 17 October with Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) replacing United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU). 
The rebalances of Wisdomtree Emerging Markets (DEM US), Wisdomtree Em Small Cap (DGS US) and Wisdmtree Emerg Mkt Ex-St Ow (XSOE US) will be implemented on 18 October.
There were net outflows from onshore China ETFs with inflows to larger cap ETFs and outflows mainly from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index trackers.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index measures the performance of emerging markets stocks that are not state-owned enterprises.</li>
<li>The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~16% and in a one-way trade of US$329m. There are 16 stocks with over US$3m to trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> will be added to the index while there will be selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index measures the performance of emerging markets stocks that are not state-owned enterprises.
The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~16% and in a one-way trade of US$329m. There are 16 stocks with over US$3m to trade.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) will be added to the index while there will be selling in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT).


WisdomTree Emerging Markets Ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index Rebalance: 16% Turnover, US$660m Trade

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

China

New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. offers educational services. The Company offers foreign language training, test preparation courses for admissions and assessment tests in the United States, the PRC and Commonwealth countries, primary and secondary school education, and other services. New Oriental Education & Technology Group also operates software development.

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New Oriental Education & Techn (9901 HK)

China Consumption Weekly (30 Oct 2023): Alibaba, Trip.com, New Oriental, Weibo

JD is competing with a broadcaster on Alibaba’s app. Trip.com’s domestic orders during National Holidays were double last year. New Oriental’s...

Ming Lu

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, TOPIX FFW, SSE50, AS51, ChiNext, Kenedix, Liontown

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

WisdomTree Emerging Markets Ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index Rebalance: 16% Turnover, US$660m Trade

There are 157 adds/79 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index. One-way turnover is 16% resulting in a one-way...

Brian Freitas

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

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