Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

China Beststudy Education Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China after-school tutoring remains one of the most attractive and visible sectors in the next 2-3 years time frame. </li>
<li>Even though <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn-cc88998e-fe0d-4a03-b544-f3e9836b06a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:531:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (EDU US)</a> had some hiccups in FY3Q24 results, they were mainly due to factors not related to the core after-school tutoring business.</li>
<li>My sector top pick is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-beststudy-education-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40632:1" rel="noopener">China Beststudy Education Group (3978 HK)</a>, as valuation is lower and growth is higher, though it has a much smaller market cap..</li>
</ul>


China after-school tutoring remains one of the most attractive and visible sectors in the next 2-3 years time frame. 
Even though New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (EDU US) had some hiccups in FY3Q24 results, they were mainly due to factors not related to the core after-school tutoring business.
My sector top pick is China Beststudy Education Group (3978 HK), as valuation is lower and growth is higher, though it has a much smaller market cap..


China After-School Tutoring:  Still In The Early Innings; Prefer China Beststudy Over EDU

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-beststudy-education-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40632:1" rel="noopener">China Beststudy Education Group (3978 HK)</a> is a Chinese K12 tutoring company with the majority of the learning centers in the Greater Bay Area. </li>
<li>The company is trading at 5x forward PE (2024), and I expect earnings to grow &gt;100% in 2024 off of a low base, and &gt;30% in 2025.  </li>
<li>I believe a forward PE of 10x is reasonable and conservative, which is at a discount to the market leader EDU's current 20x.</li>
</ul>



China Beststudy Education Group (3978 HK) is a Chinese K12 tutoring company with the majority of the learning centers in the Greater Bay Area. 
The company is trading at 5x forward PE (2024), and I expect earnings to grow &gt;100% in 2024 off of a low base, and &gt;30% in 2025.  
I believe a forward PE of 10x is reasonable and conservative, which is at a discount to the market leader EDU's current 20x.


China Beststudy Education (3978 HK):  A Darkhorse Stock In The China Tutoring Sector

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

New Oriental Education & Techn / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>New Oriental reported 3QFY25 results: net revenue declined by 2% YoY to US$1.18bn, or grew by 21% YoY to US$1.04bn if excluding revenue from East Buy, which is in line with the guidance; non-GAAP net income dropped by 14% YoY to US$113mn, slightly below Bloomberg consensus estimate of US$120mn, mainly due to the deceleration in revenue growth of overseasrelated businesses and the investment in tourism business.</li><li>Looking ahead to 4QFY25E, the company guides net revenue (excluding revenue from East Buy) to grow by 10-13% YoY to US$1.01-1.04bn, further decelerating as macro uncertainty and geopolitical tension weigh on overseas related business.</li><li>We trim FY25-27E earnings forecast by 2-8% mainly in view of the pressure on overseas-related business, and now estimate FY25-27 non-GAAP OP CAGR of 23%. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

New Oriental reported 3QFY25 results: net revenue declined by 2% YoY to US$1.18bn, or grew by 21% YoY to US$1.04bn if excluding revenue from East Buy, which is in line with the guidance; non-GAAP net income dropped by 14% YoY to US$113mn, slightly below Bloomberg consensus estimate of US$120mn, mainly due to the deceleration in revenue growth of overseasrelated businesses and the investment in tourism business.Looking ahead to 4QFY25E, the company guides net revenue (excluding revenue from East Buy) to grow by 10-13% YoY to US$1.01-1.04bn, further decelerating as macro uncertainty and geopolitical tension weigh on overseas related business.We trim FY25-27E earnings forecast by 2-8% mainly in view of the pressure on overseas-related business, and now estimate FY25-27 non-GAAP OP CAGR of 23%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

New Oriental (EDU US) - Overseas-Related Business Drags Revenue Growth

<ul><li>New Oriental announced 2QFY25 results on 21 Jan: net revenue was up by 19% YoY to US$1,039mn (+31% YoY if excluding revenue from East Buy), in line with our/consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income declined by 29% YoY to US$36mn, below our/consensus estimate of US$43/45mn, primarily due to the impact of East Buy adjustment and investment in tourism business.</li><li>For 3QFY25E, management guided net revenue (excluding revenue from East Buy) to grow by 18-21% YoY to US$1.01-1.03bn, also below our expectation as macro uncertainty impacts the high-end businesses and competition intensifies.</li><li>That said, management noted that New Oriental is still gaining market share. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

New Oriental announced 2QFY25 results on 21 Jan: net revenue was up by 19% YoY to US$1,039mn (+31% YoY if excluding revenue from East Buy), in line with our/consensus estimate; non-GAAP net income declined by 29% YoY to US$36mn, below our/consensus estimate of US$43/45mn, primarily due to the impact of East Buy adjustment and investment in tourism business.For 3QFY25E, management guided net revenue (excluding revenue from East Buy) to grow by 18-21% YoY to US$1.01-1.03bn, also below our expectation as macro uncertainty impacts the high-end businesses and competition intensifies.That said, management noted that New Oriental is still gaining market share. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

New Oriental (EDU US) - Macro Uncertainty to Impact Revenue Growth and Margin Outlook

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK)</a> reported better than expected FY2Q24 results last night, with sales up 36% yoy and net profit up 183% yoy.</li>
<li>The company further guided a 42-45% sales growth in FY3Q24, well above market consensus. </li>
<li>The visibility for the next 2-3 years is actually quite high post-"double reduction" policy.</li>
</ul>



New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK) reported better than expected FY2Q24 results last night, with sales up 36% yoy and net profit up 183% yoy.
The company further guided a 42-45% sales growth in FY3Q24, well above market consensus. 
The visibility for the next 2-3 years is actually quite high post-"double reduction" policy.


New Oriental Education (EDU US/9901 HK):  A Better Business Model In The Post "Double Reduction" Era

China

New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. offers educational services. The Company offers foreign language training, test preparation courses for admissions and assessment tests in the United States, the PRC and Commonwealth countries, primary and secondary school education, and other services. New Oriental Education & Technology Group also operates software development.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

New Oriental Education & Techn (EDU US)

China After-School Tutoring: Still In The Early Innings; Prefer China Beststudy Over EDU

China Beststudy Education (3978 HK) is up 15% today on good volume on the back of raised guidance for FY24 by management. The stock has more than...

Steve

China Beststudy Education (3978 HK): A Darkhorse Stock In The China Tutoring Sector

High conviction pick in a very attractive sector with policy tailwind now. Volume starting to pick up indicating more investor interest. Still...

Steve

New Oriental (EDU US) - Macro Uncertainty to Impact Revenue Growth and Margin Outlook

New Oriental announced 2QFY25 results on 21 Jan: net revenue was up by 19% YoY to US$1,039mn (+31% YoY if excluding revenue from East Buy)

CMB International

New Oriental Education (EDU US/9901 HK): A Better Business Model In The Post "Double Reduction" Era

Shares up 8% today in a brutal market - the industry competitive fundamentals have changed for the better. A great opportunity in all stock market...

Steve

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China After-School Tutoring: Still In The Early Innings; Prefer China Beststudy Over EDU

China Beststudy Education (3978 HK) is up 15% today on good volume on the back of raised guidance for FY24 by management. The stock has more than...

Steve

China Beststudy Education (3978 HK): A Darkhorse Stock In The China Tutoring Sector

High conviction pick in a very attractive sector with policy tailwind now. Volume starting to pick up indicating more investor interest. Still...

Steve

New Oriental (EDU US) - Overseas-Related Business Drags Revenue Growth

We trim FY25-27E earnings forecast by 2-8% mainly in view of the pressure on overseas-related business, and now estimate FY25-27 non-GAAP OP CAGR...

CMB International

New Oriental (EDU US) - Macro Uncertainty to Impact Revenue Growth and Margin Outlook

New Oriental announced 2QFY25 results on 21 Jan: net revenue was up by 19% YoY to US$1,039mn (+31% YoY if excluding revenue from East Buy)

CMB International

New Oriental Education (EDU US/9901 HK): A Better Business Model In The Post "Double Reduction" Era

Shares up 8% today in a brutal market - the industry competitive fundamentals have changed for the better. A great opportunity in all stock market...

Steve