Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

China Beststudy Education Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China after-school tutoring remains one of the most attractive and visible sectors in the next 2-3 years time frame. </li>
<li>Even though <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn-cc88998e-fe0d-4a03-b544-f3e9836b06a2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:531:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (EDU US)</a> had some hiccups in FY3Q24 results, they were mainly due to factors not related to the core after-school tutoring business.</li>
<li>My sector top pick is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-beststudy-education-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40632:1" rel="noopener">China Beststudy Education Group (3978 HK)</a>, as valuation is lower and growth is higher, though it has a much smaller market cap..</li>
</ul>


China after-school tutoring remains one of the most attractive and visible sectors in the next 2-3 years time frame. 
Even though New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (EDU US) had some hiccups in FY3Q24 results, they were mainly due to factors not related to the core after-school tutoring business.
My sector top pick is China Beststudy Education Group (3978 HK), as valuation is lower and growth is higher, though it has a much smaller market cap..


China After-School Tutoring:  Still In The Early Innings; Prefer China Beststudy Over EDU

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-beststudy-education-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40632:1" rel="noopener">China Beststudy Education Group (3978 HK)</a> is a Chinese K12 tutoring company with the majority of the learning centers in the Greater Bay Area. </li>
<li>The company is trading at 5x forward PE (2024), and I expect earnings to grow &gt;100% in 2024 off of a low base, and &gt;30% in 2025.  </li>
<li>I believe a forward PE of 10x is reasonable and conservative, which is at a discount to the market leader EDU's current 20x.</li>
</ul>



China Beststudy Education Group (3978 HK) is a Chinese K12 tutoring company with the majority of the learning centers in the Greater Bay Area. 
The company is trading at 5x forward PE (2024), and I expect earnings to grow &gt;100% in 2024 off of a low base, and &gt;30% in 2025.  
I believe a forward PE of 10x is reasonable and conservative, which is at a discount to the market leader EDU's current 20x.


China Beststudy Education (3978 HK):  A Darkhorse Stock In The China Tutoring Sector

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

New Oriental Education & Techn / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-techn" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32210:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK)</a> reported better than expected FY2Q24 results last night, with sales up 36% yoy and net profit up 183% yoy.</li>
<li>The company further guided a 42-45% sales growth in FY3Q24, well above market consensus. </li>
<li>The visibility for the next 2-3 years is actually quite high post-"double reduction" policy.</li>
</ul>



New Oriental Education &amp; Techn (9901 HK) reported better than expected FY2Q24 results last night, with sales up 36% yoy and net profit up 183% yoy.
The company further guided a 42-45% sales growth in FY3Q24, well above market consensus. 
The visibility for the next 2-3 years is actually quite high post-"double reduction" policy.


New Oriental Education (EDU US/9901 HK):  A Better Business Model In The Post "Double Reduction" Era

Research on Tech Companies

Evelyn Zhang

<ul>
<li>Oriental Selection achieves high-speed user growth through bilingual livestreaming, thanks to Douyin's  algorithmic recommendation mechanism before 6/18 ecommerce, after 6/18 the increase in the follower numbers &amp; GMV dropped sharply.</li>
<li>The unit price of the product is below average, due to the focus on produce and books, Agricultural livestreaming has always been a difficult to grow category</li>
<li>10%-15% Commission  is lower than industry average, and subsequent supply chain control and 1st party products have lower margins.</li>
</ul>


Oriental Selection achieves high-speed user growth through bilingual livestreaming, thanks to Douyin's  algorithmic recommendation mechanism before 6/18 ecommerce, after 6/18 the increase in the follower numbers &amp; GMV dropped sharply.
The unit price of the product is below average, due to the focus on produce and books, Agricultural livestreaming has always been a difficult to grow category
10%-15% Commission  is lower than industry average, and subsequent supply chain control and 1st party products have lower margins.


China

New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. offers educational services. The Company offers foreign language training, test preparation courses for admissions and assessment tests in the United States, the PRC and Commonwealth countries, primary and secondary school education, and other services. New Oriental Education & Technology Group also operates software development.

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New Oriental Education & Techn (EDU US)

China After-School Tutoring: Still In The Early Innings; Prefer China Beststudy Over EDU

China Beststudy Education (3978 HK) is up 15% today on good volume on the back of raised guidance for FY24 by management. The stock has more than...

Steve

China Beststudy Education (3978 HK): A Darkhorse Stock In The China Tutoring Sector

High conviction pick in a very attractive sector with policy tailwind now. Volume starting to pick up indicating more investor interest. Still...

Steve

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

New Oriental Education (EDU US/9901 HK): A Better Business Model In The Post "Double Reduction" Era

Shares up 8% today in a brutal market - the industry competitive fundamentals have changed for the better. A great opportunity in all stock market...

Steve

A New New Oriental?

After the recent doldrums, the education giant New Orient re-entered the spotlight recently with its new found streaming success. But can it last?

Evelyn Zhang

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