Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

China (MSCI China) continues to offer many attractive setups and accounts for the vast majority of today’s recommendations. Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe, while Brazil (Bovespa) and India (SENSEX) display improving price and RS trends -

China (MSCI China) continues to offer many attractive setups and accounts for the vast majority of today’s recommendations. Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within the EM universe, while Brazil (Bovespa) and India (SENSEX) display improving price and RS trends -

US Dollar Weakness Remains A Tailwind For EM

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

New Oriental Education & Techn / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>EDU’s student growth turned positive, but revenue growth was still negative in 1Q21 (by August 2020).</li>
<li>We believe revenue growth rate will accelerate and operating margin will improve YoY in 3Q21.</li>
<li>We believe it is a manipulation signal that the stock price rose before the quarterly result.</li>
<li>The P/E band suggests a downside of 22%.</li>
</ul>


EDU’s student growth turned positive, but revenue growth was still negative in 1Q21 (by August 2020).
We believe revenue growth rate will accelerate and operating margin will improve YoY in 3Q21.
We believe it is a manipulation signal that the stock price rose before the quarterly result.
The P/E band suggests a downside of 22%.


New Oriental (EDU): Wait for Lower Price or Wait for Better Financials in F3Q21

<ul class="">
<li>We believe revenue will continue YoY decline in 1Q21 (ended August 2020).</li>
<li>We believe the stock price reflects that the market was over-optimistic about the bankruptcy of Disney English and the private equity rush toward online education.</li>
<li>We believe the operating margin will not improve until EDU knows how many classrooms it should give up.</li>
<li>The 10-year P/E band suggests the stock price will have a downside of 20% in one year.</li>
</ul>


We believe revenue will continue YoY decline in 1Q21 (ended August 2020).
We believe the stock price reflects that the market was over-optimistic about the bankruptcy of Disney English and the private equity rush toward online education.
We believe the operating margin will not improve until EDU knows how many classrooms it should give up.
The 10-year P/E band suggests the stock price will have a downside of 20% in one year.


New Oriental (EDU): Will Stop Declining in Two Quarters, but Over-Optimistic at Current Price

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

New Oriental Education & Techn / Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-oriental-education-tech-grp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:531:1" rel="noopener">New Oriental Education (EDU US)</a> displays exhaustive rally signals under ideal bull projection at 161 with increasing odds of an early failure and downturn to test initial trendline support with secondary trend support the primary downside target.Buy volumes have deteriorated on recent strength in August warning of a more fragile and overbought condition and accompanied by bear divergence.A full five wave rally count is complete or nearly complete (cycle top).MACD is expected to roll over from noteworthy trendline resistance.Secondary trendline price and trendline support at 125 is our primary downside target. Risk to reward favors shorting an uptick attempt.

New Oriental Education (EDU US) displays exhaustive rally signals under ideal bull projection at 161 with increasing odds of an early failure and downturn to test initial trendline support with secondary trend support the primary downside target.Buy volumes have deteriorated on recent strength in August warning of a more fragile and overbought condition and accompanied by bear divergence.A full five wave rally count is complete or nearly complete (cycle top).MACD is expected to roll over from noteworthy trendline resistance.Secondary trendline price and trendline support at 125 is our primary downside target. Risk to reward favors shorting an uptick attempt.

<ul class="">
<li>Students declined YoY in 4Q20 for the first time since February 2013.</li>
<li>We believe revenue will decrease by 4% and the operating margin will decline by 2 percentage points in FY2021 (ended May 2021).</li>
<li>On the ground, students began to suspect whether English will be useful due to the tension between China and English-speaking countries.</li>
<li>The P/E band suggests the stock price will have a downside of 45% and the stock has risen for more than 3 months. Sell.</li>
</ul>


Students declined YoY in 4Q20 for the first time since February 2013.
We believe revenue will decrease by 4% and the operating margin will decline by 2 percentage points in FY2021 (ended May 2021).
On the ground, students began to suspect whether English will be useful due to the tension between China and English-speaking countries.
The P/E band suggests the stock price will have a downside of 45% and the stock has risen for more than 3 months. Sell.


New Oriental (EDU): Students Declined YoY for First Time in Seven Years

China

New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. offers educational services. The Company offers foreign language training, test preparation courses for admissions and assessment tests in the United States, the PRC and Commonwealth countries, primary and secondary school education, and other services. New Oriental Education & Technology Group also operates software development.

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New Oriental Education & Techn (EDU US)

US Dollar Weakness Remains A Tailwind For EM

China accounts for the vast majority of today’s recommendations. Taiwan (TAIEX) continues to be worthy of an overweight within EM, while Brazil...

Vermilion Research

New Oriental (EDU): Wait for Lower Price or Wait for Better Financials in F3Q21

EDU’s student growth turned positive in 1Q21. We believe financials will be better in 3Q21. However, the stock price surge before the quarterly...

Ming Lu

New Oriental (EDU): Will Stop Declining in Two Quarters, but Over-Optimistic at Current Price

We believe revenue will continue YoY decline in 1Q21 (ended August 2020). We believe the stock price reflects that the market was over-optimistic...

Ming Lu

EDU Extended Rise and Pullback Targets

New Oriental Education (EDU US) displays exhaustive rally signals under ideal bull projection at 161 with increasing odds of an early failure and...

Thomas Schroeder

New Oriental (EDU): Students Declined YoY for First Time in Seven Years

Students declined YoY in 4Q20 for the first time since February 2013. We believe revenue will decrease by 4% and the operating margin will decline...

Ming Lu

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