Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

New Oriental Education & Techn / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MSCI China Funds are starting to engage with New Oriental Education &amp; Technology after a big exodus in 2021 following China’s Tech Crackdown.</li>
<li>Since the lows of 2022, New Oriental Education has been one of the key beneficiaries of active fund rotation.</li>
<li>Previous holders such as HSBC, Mirae and BlackRock have bought back in after closing out in 2021, but there is still a long way to go to reach previous highs.</li>
</ul>


MSCI China Funds are starting to engage with New Oriental Education &amp; Technology after a big exodus in 2021 following China’s Tech Crackdown.
Since the lows of 2022, New Oriental Education has been one of the key beneficiaries of active fund rotation.
Previous holders such as HSBC, Mirae and BlackRock have bought back in after closing out in 2021, but there is still a long way to go to reach previous highs.


New Oriental Education & Technology: Back From the Dead

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In my previous insight in Mid-March 2023, we had a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in June 2023.</li>
<li>Since then, our flow expectations have changed with changes in prices and/or float and total share counts.</li>
<li>Here are our latest flow expectations based on the current prices.</li>
</ul>


In my previous insight in Mid-March 2023, we had a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in June 2023.
Since then, our flow expectations have changed with changes in prices and/or float and total share counts.
Here are our latest flow expectations based on the current prices.


Quiddity Jun23 HSTECH Flow Expectations Update: SHORT AAC Vs LONG Lenovo Might Be Interesting

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Edtech /In Depth: New business comes with old risks for China’s struggling tutoring industry</li>
<li>Syngenta /: Syngenta IPO back on hold over concerns about its $9.4 billion goal, sources say</li>
<li>Private /: China’s private sector set for boost as local governments step up support</li>
</ul>


Edtech /In Depth: New business comes with old risks for China’s struggling tutoring industry
Syngenta /: Syngenta IPO back on hold over concerns about its $9.4 billion goal, sources say
Private /: China’s private sector set for boost as local governments step up support


CX Daily: New Business Comes With Old Risks for China’s Struggling Tutoring Industry

China

New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. offers educational services. The Company offers foreign language training, test preparation courses for admissions and assessment tests in the United States, the PRC and Commonwealth countries, primary and secondary school education, and other services. New Oriental Education & Technology Group also operates software development.

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New Oriental Education & Techn (EDU US)

New Oriental Education & Technology: Back From the Dead

MSCI China Funds are starting to engage with New Oriental Education & Technology after a big exodus in 2021 following China’s Tech Crackdown.

Steven Holden

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Jun23 HSTECH Flow Expectations Update: SHORT AAC Vs LONG Lenovo Might Be Interesting

There seem to be 5 inflow names (including the expected ADD and 26 outflow names (including the expected DEL). At present, I estimate one-way flow...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

CX Daily: New Business Comes With Old Risks for China’s Struggling Tutoring Industry

Edtech /In Depth: New business comes with old risks for China’s struggling tutoring industry Syngenta /: Syngenta IPO back on hold over concerns...

Caixin Global

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