Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Health Care Select Sector SPDR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.</li>
<li>Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)</li>
<li>Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives</li>
</ul>


As the saying goes, "sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market." That appears to be exactly what is going on as we kick off 2024.
Leadership areas that have significantly outperformed since the October 2023 lows are starting to pull back rather hard -- and on above average volume (XLK, SMH, IGV, ARKK, IPO, BITQ)
Other Sectors are picking up the slack, namely Health Care (XLV), Staples (XLP), Utilities (XLU), Energy (XLE), Financials (XLF), and Real Estate (XLRE). Shift exposure toward value and defensives


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sosei-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:770:1" rel="noopener">Sosei Group (4565 JP)</a> is currently eligible for total milestone payment of more than $9.5B for its existing collaborations. During 9MFY23, Sosei reported revenue growth of 141% YoY to ¥8.6B.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pfizer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1131:1" rel="noopener">Pfizer Inc (PFE US)</a> has dosed first subject in phase 2 clinical trial of type 2 diabetes drug candidate PF-07081532. Achievement of this milestone triggers a $10M payment to Sosei.</li>
<li>Sosei has four programs in preclinical studies and 10+ in discovery phase, which are still unpartnered. The company has a cash runway into 2025 to fund its drug discovery activities.</li>
</ul>



Sosei Group (4565 JP) is currently eligible for total milestone payment of more than $9.5B for its existing collaborations. During 9MFY23, Sosei reported revenue growth of 141% YoY to ¥8.6B.

Pfizer Inc (PFE US) has dosed first subject in phase 2 clinical trial of type 2 diabetes drug candidate PF-07081532. Achievement of this milestone triggers a $10M payment to Sosei.
Sosei has four programs in preclinical studies and 10+ in discovery phase, which are still unpartnered. The company has a cash runway into 2025 to fund its drug discovery activities.


Sosei Group (4565 JP): Partners’ Pipeline Progress Reflects Power of Drug Discovery Platform

Vertex Pharmaceuticals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vertex-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4864:1" rel="noopener">Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US)</a>, the global leader in cystic fibrosis treatment, has a broad and deep clinical pipeline across multiple modalities. Each of its clinical programs represents a multibillion-dollar opportunity.  </li>
<li>MRNA drug candidate for treating the remaining 5,000 CF patients who cannot benefit from existing therapies, is set to enter clinic. Drug candidate for acute pain is in late-stage trial.</li>
<li>Regulatory submission for exa-cel for sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia in U.S., EU and UK are expected to be completed by 1Q23.</li>
</ul>



Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US), the global leader in cystic fibrosis treatment, has a broad and deep clinical pipeline across multiple modalities. Each of its clinical programs represents a multibillion-dollar opportunity.  
MRNA drug candidate for treating the remaining 5,000 CF patients who cannot benefit from existing therapies, is set to enter clinic. Drug candidate for acute pain is in late-stage trial.
Regulatory submission for exa-cel for sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia in U.S., EU and UK are expected to be completed by 1Q23.


Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): A High-Quality Deep Pocket Biotech Must-Have for Every Investor

With the S&amp;P 500 breaking above the June highs and the Russell 2000 bullishly inflecting topside a ~1-month base, it signals a continuation of the uptrends that began in March... see charts below. Therefore, we continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Materials: Biotech, Large-Cap, Biotech, Mid-Cap, Gold, Western Hemisphere, Small-Cap, and Silver, Platinum.

With the S&amp;P 500 breaking above the June highs and the Russell 2000 bullishly inflecting topside a ~1-month base, it signals a continuation of the uptrends that began in March... see charts below. Therefore, we continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care and Materials: Biotech, Large-Cap, Biotech, Mid-Cap, Gold, Western Hemisphere, Small-Cap, and Silver, Platinum.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

United States

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. is focused on the discovery and development of therapeutics for neuropsychiatric, neuroinflammatory, and neurodegenerative diseases and disorders.  The Company is developing therapeutic interventions for anxiety, depression, Alzheimer's disease, insomnia, stroke, malignant brain tumors, multiple sclerosis, obesity, and diabetes.

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Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX US)

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Market Weight; Shift to Value; Failed Breakouts for ARKK, IPO

Shifting exposure toward value and defensives. Upgrading Consumer Staples $XLP and Health Care $XLV to market weight. $ARKK and $IPO with bearish...

Vermilion Research

Sosei Group (4565 JP): Partners’ Pipeline Progress Reflects Power of Drug Discovery Platform

Discovery collaboration with global pharma giants and consequent progress of the pipeline triggering milestone payments enhances conviction on...

Tina Banerjee

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): A High-Quality Deep Pocket Biotech Must-Have for Every Investor

By leveraging on industry-leading profitability, strong balance sheet and current cash flow, Trikafta, Vertex is re-investing in next-generation...

Tina Banerjee

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

With the S&P 500 breaking above the June highs and the Russell 2000 bullishly inflecting topside a ~1-month base, it signals a continuation of...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the...

Vermilion Research

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