Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Netflix had a horrendous start to the year after reporting a loss of nearly 200,000 subscribers and a further expectation of losing close to 2 million subscribers by the coming quarters.</li><li>The management is considering advertising as a potential revenue stream in these markets while continuing to focus on building high-quality original content.</li><li>We also have a dedicated analysis of the company's Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) risk scores in order to evaluate the sustainability risk.</li></ul>

Netflix had a horrendous start to the year after reporting a loss of nearly 200,000 subscribers and a further expectation of losing close to 2 million subscribers by the coming quarters.The management is considering advertising as a potential revenue stream in these markets while continuing to focus on building high-quality original content.We also have a dedicated analysis of the company's Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) risk scores in order to evaluate the sustainability risk.

Netflix Inc.: How Will The Subscriber Loss Nightmare End?

Research from Value Investing, Value Investing

Value Investing

Research from Value Investing

I am a value investor. "Value", as defined in Value Investing, is simply the act of buying something for less than its worth. I treat my equity investment as a loan to the business - where the priority is to get back my principal in full, rather than achieving maximum yield. I consider my equity investment as a slightly higher risk loan extended to the business with slightly more accommodative loan covenants - hence justifying a slightly higher yield. While I identify as a value investor and cover all stocks and macro topics indiscriminately, most of my research will have an ASEAN bent as that’s where I’m geographically located.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>NFLX’s share price has since fallen by -68% YTD, resulting in their current valuation of 17x trailing PE. This was likely due to three recent changes from the status quo: 1) negative 1Q22 subscriber growth, 2) password sharing crackdown, and 3) their entry into an ad-supported business model.</li><li>NFLX’s reporting of their Amortization of content assets reflects a true &amp; fair view of their consumption patterns; and their outsized Commitments &amp; Contingencies are all above board. No hanky panky going on here.</li><li>We’ve actually seen this story before - Investors seem to have forgotten that NFLX actually experienced similar concerns during 2015, 2018 and 2019 - when their share price experienced drawdowns of -30%, -40% and -30% respectively.</li></ul>

NFLX’s share price has since fallen by -68% YTD, resulting in their current valuation of 17x trailing PE. This was likely due to three recent changes from the status quo: 1) negative 1Q22 subscriber growth, 2) password sharing crackdown, and 3) their entry into an ad-supported business model.NFLX’s reporting of their Amortization of content assets reflects a true &amp; fair view of their consumption patterns; and their outsized Commitments &amp; Contingencies are all above board. No hanky panky going on here.We’ve actually seen this story before - Investors seem to have forgotten that NFLX actually experienced similar concerns during 2015, 2018 and 2019 - when their share price experienced drawdowns of -30%, -40% and -30% respectively.

Much Ado About Netflix - House of Cards, or Queen's Gambit at 17x PE?

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<ul>
<li>Like Netflix, Spotify is increasing spend on proprietary content... at the same time rivals are, which makes the ROI on this spend worth less.</li>
<li>Promised margin inflection no where in sight. Have to wait for Analyst Day for more clarity. </li>
<li>While we could justify a share price in the $70s, we no longer think Spotify is as compelling a risk reward short as it has for the past two years.</li>
</ul>


Like Netflix, Spotify is increasing spend on proprietary content... at the same time rivals are, which makes the ROI on this spend worth less.
Promised margin inflection no where in sight. Have to wait for Analyst Day for more clarity. 
While we could justify a share price in the $70s, we no longer think Spotify is as compelling a risk reward short as it has for the past two years.


High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

<ul>
<li>Valmont Industries operates in four primary business segments: Engineered Infrastructure Products, Utility Support Structures, Irrigation and Coatings; as well as in the tubing, grinding media and electrolytic manganese dioxide businesses.</li>
<li>Valmont focuses on two global markets: infrastructure and agriculture.</li>
<li>The Irrigation segment manufactures and distributes mechanical irrigation equipment, and related parts and services under the Valley brand name for the agricultural industry; and tubular products for industrial customers</li>
</ul>


Valmont Industries operates in four primary business segments: Engineered Infrastructure Products, Utility Support Structures, Irrigation and Coatings; as well as in the tubing, grinding media and electrolytic manganese dioxide businesses.
Valmont focuses on two global markets: infrastructure and agriculture.
The Irrigation segment manufactures and distributes mechanical irrigation equipment, and related parts and services under the Valley brand name for the agricultural industry; and tubular products for industrial customers


<ul>
<li>Netflix management came off as unprepared for its current circumstances. Ramping competition and TAM saturation have been known for 2 years.</li>
<li>Competitive responses sounded half baked: increasing price to deter password sharing and launching advertising tiers...in 2 years?</li>
<li>The viability of the longterm growth algorithm and 10 year DCFs that Netflix investors have leaned on for years has been rightfully vaporized. </li>
</ul>


Netflix management came off as unprepared for its current circumstances. Ramping competition and TAM saturation have been known for 2 years.
Competitive responses sounded half baked: increasing price to deter password sharing and launching advertising tiers...in 2 years?
The viability of the longterm growth algorithm and 10 year DCFs that Netflix investors have leaned on for years has been rightfully vaporized. 


United States

Netflix Inc. is an Internet subscription service for watching tv shows and movies. Subscribers can instantly watch unlimited TV shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their TVs, computers and mobile devices and in the United States, subscribers can receive standard definition DVDs and Blu-ray Discs delivered to their homes.

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Netflix Inc (NFLX US)

Netflix Inc.: How Will The Subscriber Loss Nightmare End?

Netflix had a horrendous start to the year after reporting a loss of nearly 200,000 subscribers and a further expectation of losing close to 2...

Baptista Research

Much Ado About Netflix - House of Cards, or Queen's Gambit at 17x PE?

NFLX’s share price has since fallen by -68% YTD, resulting in their current valuation of 17x trailing PE. This was likely due to three recent...

Value Investing

Spotify 1Q22 Earnings: Netflix Like?

The more Daniel Ek said that Spotify is not like Netflix, the more we thought...hes right! Netflix has a less competition, more pricing power, and...

Aaron Gabin

Weekly Stock Bullfinder- Week of 4/25

Bill Ackman and Buying “Bargains”; One of the notable market news stories this past week was Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Netflix 1Q22: Willfull Ignorance

Netflix management seemed unprepared for its current circumstances. Ramping competition and TAM saturation have been known for 2 years. Competitive...

Aaron Gabin

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