TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Netflix has had a slew of upgrades recently on bullish estimates for its coming advertising supported tier...with the upgrades buying into Netflix's exorbitant CPM demands.</li>
<li>We think advertising supported is revenue accretive for the US and Canada, but question how this works out internationally.</li>
<li>Disney is far better positioned for AVOD. It has a developed ad infrastructure, owns all its content, and has better brands to sell advertising against.</li>
</ul>


Netflix has had a slew of upgrades recently on bullish estimates for its coming advertising supported tier...with the upgrades buying into Netflix's exorbitant CPM demands.
We think advertising supported is revenue accretive for the US and Canada, but question how this works out internationally.
Disney is far better positioned for AVOD. It has a developed ad infrastructure, owns all its content, and has better brands to sell advertising against.


Ad-Based Streaming: Are We Sure This Is Netflix's Panacea (Or Disney?)

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>North American allocations continue to trend higher, hitting a record average weight of 58.1% across the 358 global funds in our analysis</li>
<li>North America has consistently stolen market share from other key global regions, most notably Developed Market Europe, where average fund weights have hit all-time lows of 24.24%</li>
<li>Sectors driving allocations higher are led by Energy, Health Care and Industrials with active rotation in to all 3, whilst Consumer Staples have seen signs of investor fatigue.</li>
</ul>


North American allocations continue to trend higher, hitting a record average weight of 58.1% across the 358 global funds in our analysis
North America has consistently stolen market share from other key global regions, most notably Developed Market Europe, where average fund weights have hit all-time lows of 24.24%
Sectors driving allocations higher are led by Energy, Health Care and Industrials with active rotation in to all 3, whilst Consumer Staples have seen signs of investor fatigue.


North America Hits New Highs as Global Rotation Continues

<ul>
<li>Activist Dan Loeb recently backed down from his request that Disney spin out ESPN...something we thought was foolish, and glad is off the table. </li>
<li>Disney is still trapped by the "rock and the hard place" choice of trading higher margin cable subscribers for lower margin (higher churning) streaming subs.</li>
<li>Bob Chapek is a poor choice for Disney CEO...not alot of good options. This company is strategically boxed in. Parks's overearning will dissipate, will be a good short next year. </li>
</ul>


Activist Dan Loeb recently backed down from his request that Disney spin out ESPN...something we thought was foolish, and glad is off the table. 
Disney is still trapped by the "rock and the hard place" choice of trading higher margin cable subscribers for lower margin (higher churning) streaming subs.
Bob Chapek is a poor choice for Disney CEO...not alot of good options. This company is strategically boxed in. Parks's overearning will dissipate, will be a good short next year. 


Loeb Backed Down Quickly…But Is Disney Really in Good Shape?

<ul>
<li>Palo Alto Networks produced an impressive FY4Q22 earnings, blowing out billings growth and showing an impressive display of "platformization"...only trades 8x forward revenues for 25-30% revenue and FCF growth.</li>
<li>Farfetch finally acquired Yoox Net a Porter, after over a year of speculation. Deal is excellent for FTCH, gives them a monopolistic position in lux ecommerce.</li>
<li>Netflix's Gray Man yet another example of the company's inability to create compelling big budget movies.</li>
</ul>


Palo Alto Networks produced an impressive FY4Q22 earnings, blowing out billings growth and showing an impressive display of "platformization"...only trades 8x forward revenues for 25-30% revenue and FCF growth.
Farfetch finally acquired Yoox Net a Porter, after over a year of speculation. Deal is excellent for FTCH, gives them a monopolistic position in lux ecommerce.
Netflix's Gray Man yet another example of the company's inability to create compelling big budget movies.


TMT Quick Hits: Palo Alto Networks, Farfetch, Netflix

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Netflix has had a bad 2022 so far.</li><li>The company continued with its trajectory of subscriber losses in the most recent quarter and lost another million subscribers.</li><li>Given the current uncertainty levels, we give Netflix a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.</li></ul>

Netflix has had a bad 2022 so far.The company continued with its trajectory of subscriber losses in the most recent quarter and lost another million subscribers.Given the current uncertainty levels, we give Netflix a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Netflix Inc.: Ad-Supported Subscription To Counter Subscriber Losses & Other Developments

United States

Netflix Inc. is an Internet subscription service for watching tv shows and movies. Subscribers can instantly watch unlimited TV shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their TVs, computers and mobile devices and in the United States, subscribers can receive standard definition DVDs and Blu-ray Discs delivered to their homes.

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Netflix Inc (NFLX US)

Ad-Based Streaming: Are We Sure This Is Netflix's Panacea (Or Disney?)

Aince last quarter’s earnings Netflix is up 18%, outperforming the S&P by nearly 23%. 4 recent upgrades share the thesis that ads will stimulate...

Aaron Gabin

North America Hits New Highs as Global Rotation Continues

North American allocations among active Global investors hit record highs, driven by Energy, Health Care and Industrials rotation.

Steven Holden

Loeb Backed Down Quickly…But Is Disney Really in Good Shape?

We think Disney is stuck. DTC streaming service is the future of media, a fundamentally less attractive business model. Disney remains an excellent...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Quick Hits: Palo Alto Networks, Farfetch, Netflix

Palo Alto Networks produced an impressive FY4Q22 earnings, blowing out billings growth and showing an impressive display of...

Aaron Gabin

Netflix Inc.: Ad-Supported Subscription To Counter Subscriber Losses & Other Developments

Netflix has had a bad 2022 so far. The company continued with its trajectory of subscriber losses in the most recent quarter and lost another...

Baptista Research

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