Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With the recent announcement of Tencent’s distribution of its JD.com shares to shareholders its other stakes have come under scrutiny. </li>
<li>We have been speculating for some time about whether a split from Tencent was on the cards for Epic. </li>
<li>In the case of Riot we had not expected a sale but it may not be impossible.</li>
</ul>


With the recent announcement of Tencent’s distribution of its JD.com shares to shareholders its other stakes have come under scrutiny. 
We have been speculating for some time about whether a split from Tencent was on the cards for Epic. 
In the case of Riot we had not expected a sale but it may not be impossible.


Tencent – Do Epic Games and Riot Get Sold?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With the 2021 futures expiring in 2 weeks, the focus now shifts to the HSCEI dividend futures expiring in 2022 where we see a fair value of 240.76 DIPS.</li>
<li>The current market is trading very close to our fair value for 2022 but there are a lot of potential catalysts that could result in a big move lower.</li>
<li>There are fewer catalysts for the 2022 futures to move higher. The regulatory changes in China plus the HFCAA could lead to the 2023 futures trading cheaper to 2022.</li>
</ul>


With the 2021 futures expiring in 2 weeks, the focus now shifts to the HSCEI dividend futures expiring in 2022 where we see a fair value of 240.76 DIPS.
The current market is trading very close to our fair value for 2022 but there are a lot of potential catalysts that could result in a big move lower.
There are fewer catalysts for the 2022 futures to move higher. The regulatory changes in China plus the HFCAA could lead to the 2023 futures trading cheaper to 2022.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Close to Fair; Sell 22/23 Steepener

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Netmarble aims to raise up to US$415m via selling 1.5% stake in Kakao Bank.</li>
<li>This is not the first selldown by Netmarble and hence, it might be kind of expected as it comes after the three month lock-up expired last month.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


Netmarble aims to raise up to US$415m via selling 1.5% stake in Kakao Bank.
This is not the first selldown by Netmarble and hence, it might be kind of expected as it comes after the three month lock-up expired last month.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Kakao Bank Placement - Not a Surprise but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qingci-games" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35240:1" rel="noopener">Qingci Games (6633 HK)</a> is a mobile game developer and publisher in China. It aims to raise net proceeds of US$125.5 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/qingci-games-ipo-future-imperfect-and-tense" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:62199" rel="noopener">Qingci Games IPO: Future, Imperfect and Tense</a>, we stated that it is uncertain if the declining trends in the key title can be offset by a new blockbuster title.  </li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive. Consequently, we give the IPO a pass. </li>
</ul>



Qingci Games (6633 HK) is a mobile game developer and publisher in China. It aims to raise net proceeds of US$125.5 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range.
In Qingci Games IPO: Future, Imperfect and Tense, we stated that it is uncertain if the declining trends in the key title can be offset by a new blockbuster title.  
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive. Consequently, we give the IPO a pass. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qingci-games" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35240:1" rel="noopener">Qingci Games (6633 HK)</a> is a mobile game developer and publisher in China. It aims to raise net proceeds of US$125.5 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range.</li>
<li>The past is perfect and characterised by exponential growth and rising margins. However, the future is tense with a material decline in profitability flagged for 2H21.  </li>
<li>It is uncertain if the declining trends in the key title can be offset by a new blockbuster title. We discuss valuation in our next note. </li>
</ul>



Qingci Games (6633 HK) is a mobile game developer and publisher in China. It aims to raise net proceeds of US$125.5 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range.
The past is perfect and characterised by exponential growth and rising margins. However, the future is tense with a material decline in profitability flagged for 2H21.  
It is uncertain if the declining trends in the key title can be offset by a new blockbuster title. We discuss valuation in our next note. 


Qingci Games IPO: Future, Imperfect and Tense

China

NetEase, Inc. operates as an leading internet technology company providing online services including content, community, communication, and commerce. The Company develops and operates online games, electronic commerce, internet media, innovative business, and other businesses. NetEase expands its businesses to Japan, North American, and other other international markets.

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NetEase (9999 HK)

Tencent – Do Epic Games and Riot Get Sold?

With the recent announcement of Tencent’s distribution of its JD.com shares to shareholders we consider the different implications for the industry...

Mio Kato

HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Close to Fair; Sell 22/23 Steepener

The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are trading close to fair but there are a lot more negative catalysts that will have a bigger impact than positive...

Brian Freitas

Kakao Bank Placement - Not a Surprise but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

Netmarble aims to raise up to US$415m via selling 1.5% stake in Kakao Bank. In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal...

Sumeet Singh

Qingci Games IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive. Consequently, we give the IPO a pass. Pricing is set for 9 Dec and...

Arun George

Qingci Games IPO: Future, Imperfect and Tense

Qingci aims to raise net proceeds of US$125.5 million at the mid-point of the IPO price range. Overall, we believe the negatives outweigh the...

Arun George

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