Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$32bn (US$4.1bn).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics</a> are the largest buys while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings</a> are the largest sells.</li>
</ul>


The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.
The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$32bn (US$4.1bn).

Li Auto, Alibaba, NetEase, Zijin Mining, SenseTime and BYD Electronics are the largest buys while Tencent, Meituan, JD.com, Kuaishou Technology, Xiaomi and HSBC Holdings are the largest sells.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2024)

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Tencent's &lt;DNF Mobile&gt; achieved ~RMB 1 billion gross billings (GB) in first week; </li>
<li>We raised NetEase's &lt;Condor Hero&gt; gross billing estimate by 10% as it will launch a major update patch in C3Q24;</li>
<li>The pre-registrations of Bilibili's new game &lt;Three Kingdom: MDTX&gt; reached 2.5 million. We maintained our RMB 3-4 billion annual gross billing (AGB) in 2025 estimate unchanged.</li>
</ul>



Tencent's &lt;DNF Mobile&gt; achieved ~RMB 1 billion gross billings (GB) in first week; 
We raised NetEase's &lt;Condor Hero&gt; gross billing estimate by 10% as it will launch a major update patch in C3Q24;
The pre-registrations of Bilibili's new game &lt;Three Kingdom: MDTX&gt; reached 2.5 million. We maintained our RMB 3-4 billion annual gross billing (AGB) in 2025 estimate unchanged.


Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China announced game approval for the May batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.</li>
<li>The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening, though the number of approvals appears to be slower than March.</li>
<li>None of the listed companies that we followed received approval for mobile games.</li>
</ul>


China announced game approval for the May batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening, though the number of approvals appears to be slower than March.
None of the listed companies that we followed received approval for mobile games.


Tencent/Netease: Major Names Get Zeroed in May, Smells of Common Prosperity?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-up-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36232:1" rel="noopener">Shift Up (462870 KS)</a> plans to raise up to US$320m in its South Korean IPO.</li>
<li>Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s performance in our past notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Shift Up (462870 KS) plans to raise up to US$320m in its South Korean IPO.
Shift Up is a South Korean games developer, which as released three games so far for the global markets.
We have looked at the company’s performance in our past notes. In this note, we talk about valuations.


Shift Up IPO - Thoughts on Valuations - Bear/Base/Bull

China

NetEase, Inc. operates as an leading internet technology company providing online services including content, community, communication, and commerce. The Company develops and operates online games, electronic commerce, internet media, innovative business, and other businesses. NetEase expands its businesses to Japan, North American, and other other international markets.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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NetEase (9999 HK)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2024)

The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the four...

Brian Freitas

Online Game Monitor: May 26-June 2, 2024

The week's biggest name is Tencent's DNF Mobile reaching a historical high in Chinese mobile game launches in the first week.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Screening for GEMs: June 2024

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Tencent/Netease: Major Names Get Zeroed in May, Smells of Common Prosperity?

China approves May batch of games at a higher rate than in 2023, but slower than March. We observed that there is no mobile game approval for...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shift Up IPO - Thoughts on Valuations - Bear/Base/Bull

Shift Up (462870 KS) plans to raise up to US$320m in its South Korean IPO. We have looked at its past performance earlier, in this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (June 2024)

The June rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the four...

Brian Freitas

Online Game Monitor: May 26-June 2, 2024

The week's biggest name is Tencent's DNF Mobile reaching a historical high in Chinese mobile game launches in the first week.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Screening for GEMs: June 2024

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Tencent/Netease: Major Names Get Zeroed in May, Smells of Common Prosperity?

​China approves May batch of games at a higher rate than in 2023, but slower than March. We observed that there is no mobile game approval for...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shift Up IPO - Thoughts on Valuations - Bear/Base/Bull

Shift Up (462870 KS) plans to raise up to US$320m in its South Korean IPO. We have looked at its past performance earlier, in this note, we talk...

Sumeet Singh

China approves May batch of games at a higher rate than in 2023, but slower than March. We observed that there is no mobile game approval for...