Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We’ve seen a number of advertising sector profit warnings from Dentsu to WPP amid signs that key clients across the FMCG sector are questioning the payback from digital advertising.</li>
<li>Indeed, Google has begun offering refunds to advertisers for fraudulent traffic driven by ‘click bots’, but stricter EU data privacy rules and the rise of ad blocking software are additional threats.</li>
<li>The ad sector risks being disintermediated as increasingly cost conscious brands facing rising EM competition create…</li>
</ul>


We’ve seen a number of advertising sector profit warnings from Dentsu to WPP amid signs that key clients across the FMCG sector are questioning the payback from digital advertising.
Indeed, Google has begun offering refunds to advertisers for fraudulent traffic driven by ‘click bots’, but stricter EU data privacy rules and the rise of ad blocking software are additional threats.
The ad sector risks being disintermediated as increasingly cost conscious brands facing rising EM competition create…


Advertising Industry Gets Disrupted, as Central Bankers Fly Blind…

Differentiated global TMT & Internet Research

New Street Research Insights

New Street Research

Research is provided by our team of experienced analysts. Our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focused on fundamentals and valuation of telecoms and internet names globally. New Street is headquartered in London with offices in New York, Singapore and Australia. 

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
Japan Telecoms
Asian Internet
Pan European Healthcare
US Healthcare
Japanese Healthcare

We also provide debt research on:
Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

Equity Bottom-Up

We remain positive on the long-term prospects for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17203" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17203:1">NetEase (NTES US)</a>, which we see as one of the dominant online game companies in China (along with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1">Tencent (700 HK)</a>).  However, in the short term, we are concerned that softness in mobile games is likely to extend through 3Q and into 4Q this year as hit titles mature. That is likely to continue to weigh on sentiment. Longer term we expect its position in online games to remain strong while its eCommerce efforts are also growing strongly. We have…

We remain positive on the long-term prospects for NetEase (NTES US), which we see as one of the dominant online game companies in China (along with Tencent (700 HK)).  However, in the short term, we are concerned that softness in mobile games is likely to extend through 3Q and into 4Q this year as hit titles mature. That is likely to continue to weigh on sentiment. Longer term we expect its position in online games to remain strong while its eCommerce efforts are also growing strongly. We have…

We Expect Mobile Game Softness at Netease to Remain in 2017

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

We believe that without the launches of a few new major mobile games, the upside in the stock of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17203" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17203:1">NetEase Inc (ADR) (NTES US)</a> is capped.  As of Q2, mobile is about 72% of total game revenue and 41% of group revenue.  The success of launches of new mobile games is the key to the stock.  Investors tend to be more willing to pay for a concentrated portfolio of major hits of hundreds of millions RMB in monthly GMV) than a collection of many small games each generating only a few million RMB.  With…

We believe that without the launches of a few new major mobile games, the upside in the stock of NetEase Inc (ADR) (NTES US) is capped.  As of Q2, mobile is about 72% of total game revenue and 41% of group revenue.  The success of launches of new mobile games is the key to the stock.  Investors tend to be more willing to pay for a concentrated portfolio of major hits of hundreds of millions RMB in monthly GMV) than a collection of many small games each generating only a few million RMB.  With…

Netease Q3 Update: Awaiting New Blockbuster Games

We updated our price target and forecasts for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1">Tencent (700 HK)</a> recently ahead of the 2Q result. Our price target moved from HK$260 to HK$371. The increase was due in part to the forecast changes (around $30 of the increase) but the major driver was a reduction in the discount rate we use for our DCF valuation (to 10% from 12%). To some extent we are falling into line with the share price (now HK$327), but our view on Tencent and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/787" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1">Alibaba (BABA US)</a> is evolving and we think they can justify a lower…

We updated our price target and forecasts for Tencent (700 HK) recently ahead of the 2Q result. Our price target moved from HK$260 to HK$371. The increase was due in part to the forecast changes (around $30 of the increase) but the major driver was a reduction in the discount rate we use for our DCF valuation (to 10% from 12%). To some extent we are falling into line with the share price (now HK$327), but our view on Tencent and Alibaba (BABA US) is evolving and we think they can justify a lower…

Tencent Continues to Surge past Expectations. Its Earnings Flexibility Makes It a Core Holding.

Whilst positive sentiment built up after the company’s impressive AI developers’ conference, we remain cautious on near to mid-term monetization at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/179" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> while competition for advertising spend from social media remains a challenge.Baidu beat expectations in its recent 2Q17 results as other service revenue (+126% YoY) exceeded forecasts although ad sales (+6% YoY) disappointed.  3Q revenue guidance was driven by better than expected growth in iQiyi subscription services and lower…

Whilst positive sentiment built up after the company’s impressive AI developers’ conference, we remain cautious on near to mid-term monetization at Baidu (BIDU US) while competition for advertising spend from social media remains a challenge.Baidu beat expectations in its recent 2Q17 results as other service revenue (+126% YoY) exceeded forecasts although ad sales (+6% YoY) disappointed.  3Q revenue guidance was driven by better than expected growth in iQiyi subscription services and lower…

Baidu Beats Expectations in 2Q17 but Too Early to Cheer. We Remain at Neutral.

China

NetEase, Inc. operates as an leading internet technology company providing online services including content, community, communication, and commerce. The Company develops and operates online games, electronic commerce, internet media, innovative business, and other businesses. NetEase expands its businesses to Japan, North American, and other other international markets.

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NetEase (9999 HK)

Advertising Industry Gets Disrupted, as Central Bankers Fly Blind…

We’ve seen a number of advertising sector profit warnings from Dentsu to WPP amid signs that key clients across the FMCG sector are questioning...

Sean Maher

We Expect Mobile Game Softness at Netease to Remain in 2017

We remain positive on the long-term prospects for NetEase (NTES US), which we see as one of the dominant online game companies in China (along with...

New Street Research

Netease Q3 Update: Awaiting New Blockbuster Games

We believe that without the launches of a few new major mobile games, the upside in the stock of NetEase Inc (ADR) (NTES US) is capped. As of Q2,...

JL Warren Capital

Tencent Continues to Surge past Expectations. Its Earnings Flexibility Makes It a Core Holding.

We updated our price target and forecasts for Tencent (700 HK) recently ahead of the 2Q result. Our price target moved from HK$260 to HK$371. The...

New Street Research

Baidu Beats Expectations in 2Q17 but Too Early to Cheer. We Remain at Neutral.

Whilst positive sentiment built up after the company’s impressive AI developers’ conference, we remain cautious on near to mid-term monetization at...

New Street Research

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