Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/temasek-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28816:1" rel="noopener">Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd (TMSK SP)</a>, Singapore’s state investment firm, is reportedly eyeing a 10-15% stake in India’s top snack maker Haldirams (Unlisted), valued at $11 billion.</li>
<li>India's packaged and processed food sector is booming, driven by modern retail growth, improved food standards, rising convenience demand, and greater affordability.</li>
<li>Big acquisitions, upcoming IPOs, and strong growth prospects keep this sector in the spotlight, with listed companies offering investors opportunity to play the upswing.</li>
</ul>



Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd (TMSK SP), Singapore’s state investment firm, is reportedly eyeing a 10-15% stake in India’s top snack maker Haldirams (Unlisted), valued at $11 billion.
India's packaged and processed food sector is booming, driven by modern retail growth, improved food standards, rising convenience demand, and greater affordability.
Big acquisitions, upcoming IPOs, and strong growth prospects keep this sector in the spotlight, with listed companies offering investors opportunity to play the upswing.


Temasek's USD1Bn+ Bite into India's Booming Snack Food Sector.Top Listed Stocks to Watch

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Market Breadth Narrowing; Emphasis On Style &amp; Sector Rotation</li><li>The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 10.4% in the last three months against the 7.5% returns posted by Nifty 50 over the same period.</li><li>Moreover, the basket climbed up by 2.3% in the last one month. It gives us immense joy to share that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 348% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 178% return delivered by the NIFTY 50 index over the same period. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market Breadth Narrowing; Emphasis On Style &amp; Sector RotationThe Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 10.4% in the last three months against the 7.5% returns posted by Nifty 50 over the same period.Moreover, the basket climbed up by 2.3% in the last one month. It gives us immense joy to share that our Top Picks Basket has delivered an impressive return of 348% since its inception (May’20), which stands well above the 178% return delivered by the NIFTY 50 index over the same period. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top Picks for the Month of October 2024

<ul><li>Topline Growth Driven by Volume Recovery: Most staple companies posted mid to high single-digit revenue growth despite facing challenges such as severe heatwaves in the northern region, heightened competitive intensity, and the general election impact.</li><li>The growth was primarily led by a rural recovery, with rural markets outpacing urban growth.</li><li>Sustained Rural Recovery: Rural demand continues to show steady improvement, with the rural market now surpassing urban areas, largely due to distribution expansion and region-specific launches. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Topline Growth Driven by Volume Recovery: Most staple companies posted mid to high single-digit revenue growth despite facing challenges such as severe heatwaves in the northern region, heightened competitive intensity, and the general election impact.The growth was primarily led by a rural recovery, with rural markets outpacing urban growth.Sustained Rural Recovery: Rural demand continues to show steady improvement, with the rural market now surpassing urban areas, largely due to distribution expansion and region-specific launches. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With 3 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in September.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 18% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 55bn (US$660m). 9 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>All the deletes are F&amp;O members while most adds are not. NSE Indices may have to revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.</li>
</ul>


With 3 trading days left in the review period, there could be 7 changes (including 2 migrations) for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 18% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 55bn (US$660m). 9 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
All the deletes are F&amp;O members while most adds are not. NSE Indices may have to revisit the index membership criteria especially given the launch of futures on the index.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes as Non-F&O Stocks Replace F&O Members

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth.</li><li>At an aggregate level, we expect revenue/EBITDA/net income growth of 5.6/6.3/6.7% respectively in 1QFY25.</li><li>Our ground checks suggest that the demand environment for FMCG products has started gradually improving because of (1) improving volume growth trends in rural areas on the back of a favourable base and the reducing impact of inflation</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth.At an aggregate level, we expect revenue/EBITDA/net income growth of 5.6/6.3/6.7% respectively in 1QFY25.Our ground checks suggest that the demand environment for FMCG products has started gradually improving because of (1) improving volume growth trends in rural areas on the back of a favourable base and the reducing impact of inflationContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG, QSR & Alco Bev (Q1FY25 Results Preview): On an improving trajectory

India

Nestle India Ltd. manufactures brand name milk products and other food products. The Company's products include Everyday dairy whitener, milk powder and ghee, Milkmaid sweetened condensed milk and Cerelac weaning foods. Nestle's beverages include Nescafe and Sunrise coffee and Nesfit enriched glucose powder. Nestle also manufactures Maggi noodles, soups and sauces.

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Nestle India (NEST IN)

Temasek's USD1Bn+ Bite into India's Booming Snack Food Sector.Top Listed Stocks to Watch

India's packaged food sector could continue to be in spotlight with big acquisitions, upcoming IPOs and expected strong growth. Top listed stocks...

Devi Subhakesan

Axis Top Picks for the Month of October 2024

The Axis Top Picks Basket delivered an excellent return of 10.4% in the last three months against the 7.5% returns posted by Nifty 50 over the same...

Axis Direct

Top Sector Ideas - FMCG (Q1FY25)

Rural demand continues to show steady improvement, with the rural market now surpassing urban areas, largely due to distribution expansion

Axis Direct

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: 7 Changes as Non-F&O Stocks Replace F&O Members

There could be 7 changes for the Nifty Next 50. The addition of non-FnO stocks and deletion of FnO stocks raises index replication issues. Expect...

Brian Freitas

FMCG, QSR & Alco Bev (Q1FY25 Results Preview): On an improving trajectory

We expect our consumer coverage to report revenue growth in mid-single-digits (6% yoy), driven by volume growth. At an aggregate level, we expect...

HDFC Securities

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