Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,2% lower </li>
<li>The news of the week was probably that the Atlanta FED changed its GDP now forecast drastically and signaled that a recession as soon as January 2023 is likely.</li>
<li>Commodities plunged after that news because demand destruction could become worse over time. Nevertheless, we need to differentiate.</li>
</ul>


The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,2% lower 
The news of the week was probably that the Atlanta FED changed its GDP now forecast drastically and signaled that a recession as soon as January 2023 is likely.
Commodities plunged after that news because demand destruction could become worse over time. Nevertheless, we need to differentiate.


<ul>
<li>Besides global growth concerns as Central Banks step up their battle against inflation, and China's zero-covid restrictions may stretch into 2023, it is quite clear what the main story was this week</li>
<li>Russia cut up to 60% of its gas flows to Germany. It will become very hard for Europe to get over the next winter if gas flows remain that low</li>
<li>Rate hiking cycles end when the Fed Funds target rate catches up to where the 2-year T-Note yield has already gone</li>
</ul>


Besides global growth concerns as Central Banks step up their battle against inflation, and China's zero-covid restrictions may stretch into 2023, it is quite clear what the main story was this week
Russia cut up to 60% of its gas flows to Germany. It will become very hard for Europe to get over the next winter if gas flows remain that low
Rate hiking cycles end when the Fed Funds target rate catches up to where the 2-year T-Note yield has already gone


The Commodity Report: CRB Commodity Index Ended the Week 5.1% Lower

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul>
<li>The gap between supply and demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will reach 100 million tons a year globally by the mid-2020s, reflecting increased demand and limited supply growth</li>
<li>Global trade in LNG expanded 6% in 2021 to 380 million tons as economies rebounded from the Covid-19 pandemic</li>
<li>Meanwhile, global investment in natural gas has been in a "structural decline" since 2010, with the number of new LNG projects falling significantly between 2020 and 2021</li>
</ul>


The gap between supply and demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will reach 100 million tons a year globally by the mid-2020s, reflecting increased demand and limited supply growth
Global trade in LNG expanded 6% in 2021 to 380 million tons as economies rebounded from the Covid-19 pandemic
Meanwhile, global investment in natural gas has been in a "structural decline" since 2010, with the number of new LNG projects falling significantly between 2020 and 2021


Global LNG Supply Will Fall 100 Million Tons Short by Mid-2020s

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

The rally in the Oil price since the end of August has already met it’s $85 target two weeks ago. Overhead there are numerous levels that converge just below $90 including the major high seen in 2018Having effectively tested that 2018 level at $86.74 this week (the high was $86.70) we have come off and are now in line for a bearish weekly reversal at the trend highs - Friday’s closing price will be important.Given the broad crisis in energy in many parts of the world, it was thought that a cooling off in the Oil price may be seen as a relief of sorts in this market. That however has been negated by the bounce back in natural gas prices. Unfortunately, the indications seen here are still very much pointing to an ongoing crisis.In the near-term watch for a pullback in Oil, the S&amp;P 500 Energy Sector and the European Oil &amp; Gas Sector. However, do not expect these declines to last beyond the short term and do not expect the rise in Natural Gas prices to change.

The rally in the Oil price since the end of August has already met it’s $85 target two weeks ago. Overhead there are numerous levels that converge just below $90 including the major high seen in 2018Having effectively tested that 2018 level at $86.74 this week (the high was $86.70) we have come off and are now in line for a bearish weekly reversal at the trend highs - Friday’s closing price will be important.Given the broad crisis in energy in many parts of the world, it was thought that a cooling off in the Oil price may be seen as a relief of sorts in this market. That however has been negated by the bounce back in natural gas prices. Unfortunately, the indications seen here are still very much pointing to an ongoing crisis.In the near-term watch for a pullback in Oil, the S&amp;P 500 Energy Sector and the European Oil &amp; Gas Sector. However, do not expect these declines to last beyond the short term and do not expect the rise in Natural Gas prices to change.

Materials, IPO & Equity Analyst

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Quantitative Analysis

The US natural gas markets have gone into a tailspin since May of this year as inventory spread between FY19 vs FY18 started to widen.  In this note, we analyze the Natural gas markets using statistical data analysis and machine learning tools.

The US natural gas markets have gone into a tailspin since May of this year as inventory spread between FY19 vs FY18 started to widen.  In this note, we analyze the Natural gas markets using statistical data analysis and machine learning tools.

Statistical Machine Learning - Analysis of US Natural Gas Markets

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

The Commodity Report #58

The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 1,2% lower. The news of the week was probably that the Atlanta FED changed its GDP now forecast...

The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report: CRB Commodity Index Ended the Week 5.1% Lower

Besides global growth concerns as Central Banks step up their battle against inflation, and China's zero-covid restrictions may stretch into 2023,...

The Commodity Report

Global LNG Supply Will Fall 100 Million Tons Short by Mid-2020s

The gap between supply and demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will reach 100 million tons a year globally by the mid-2020s, reflecting...

Caixin Global

A Crude Update

Having met the topside target, Brent Crude is now in line for a bearish weekly reversal. Watch Friday's close. While a correction down on Oil seems...

Shyam Devani

Statistical Machine Learning - Analysis of US Natural Gas Markets

The US natural gas markets have gone into a tailspin since May of this year as inventory spread between FY19 vs FY18 started to widen. In this...

Venkat Ramana Nandyal

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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